Kazakhstan is interested in bolstering cooperation with the West. However, it would be naïve to place high hopes on the Kazakh government.

Central Asia has been known as a region that was for a long period of time incorporated into the Soviet Union and therefore influenced by Russia. However, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has undermined its reputation and presence in the region, and the emerging gap in trade and security is slowly being filled by China. How do these states manage such new shifts in geopolitics? And what trends may shape their outlook for the future?

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has become a serious challenge for Central Asian states, which tend to consider Russia as their reliable partner in the security and economic spheres. However, Russian foreign policy treats Central Asia as an extension of its sphere of influence, which should be maintained by two international organisations led by Russia: the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO).

The term “brother nation” has traditionally been very popular within the foreign policies of the countries of the former USSR. The Kyrgyz Republic and other countries of Central Asia have also often used this phrase given their common Turkic and Soviet history, Russia included. After February 2022, however, the countries’ relationships with Russia started to take a different form, far from “the spirit of allied relations”.

Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine has encouraged Central Asian states to strengthen their multi-vector orientation of foreign policies. Looking to take advantage of this new reality, the EU and European states have now increased their engagement within the region and beyond. Despite the efforts, it is clear that the new environment will not be recalibrated and stabilised overnight.

To quell the January uprisings in Kazakhstan, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev enlisted the help of the Collective Security Treaty Organization. The military alliance is cautious by nature, but reacted in this instance as troops were mobilised within hours to aid Tokayev’s government. The Kazakh case may set a precedent and could usher in a new life for the CSTO.

Independent Uzbekistan has been no stranger to controversy. Once ruled by the autocratic Islam Karimov, the country had failed to make any serious changes to its political system as recently as 2016. Ongoing reforms by President Mirziyoyev, however, suggest that the country and even the region may now be changing for the better.

The “Land of the Great Steppe” finds itself in a partial or even stalled transitory period, despite the departure of Nursultan Nazarbayev as president. At the same time, Kazakhstan has no choice but to continue to navigate between its Russian and Chinese neighbours, even if relations with both are deteriorating.

Russia stands to gain geopolitically from the Western failure in Afghanistan. As a meeting with the Taliban leadership in July showed, Moscow is positioning itself as a key actor in the new Central Asian reality.

NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan will leave its Central Asian neighbours with a number of challenges. Central Asian states are likely to address these issues with the help of Russia and China, who are eager to advance their status and role in the region.

Interview with Aida Alymbaeva, a Kyrgyz lecturer and opposition politician. Interview by Charles Fourmi.

The recent developments in the former Soviet republics of Kyrgyzstan and Belarus could mean the influence of the Kremlin is weakening.

The Russian-Chinese duopoly retains strong clout in Central Asia. Western overtures to Central Asian nations, however, are still worrisome to Beijing and Moscow, which treat the region as their own backyard. Even though the United States is unlikely to replace Russian or Chinese influence in Central Asia, Washington can offer a geopolitical counterweight and expand its ties with the region, where a western presence is limited.

In early February this year US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, paid a rare visit to Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. The visit was yet another signal that Washington, under Donald Trump’s presidency, wants to strengthen ties with Central Asian nations and challenge Sino-Russian domination in the region. Pompeo's visit was part of Donald Trump's administration broad effort to reinvigorate ties with Central Asian nations which has come ahead of the unveiling of the United States Strategy for Central Asia 2019-2025 in February this year.