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Tag: belarus

A calculated gesture? The release of Siarhei Tsikhanouski and the future of the Belarusian democratic forces

The release of Siarhei Tsikhanouski in June 2025 marks a pivotal moment in Belarusian political theater — not as a sign of liberalization, but as a calculated maneuver within Lukashenka’s enduring strategy of controlled concessions. The regime's selective clemency is an expression of geopolitical signaling, manipulation of opposition dynamics, and reinforcement of authoritarian resilience.

July 25, 2025 - Hanna Vasilevich

Who is leading and lagging on democracy and reforms in the EU’s Eastern Partnership?

The 2025 Eastern Partnership Index tracks the democratic transformation and European integration in the countries that participated in the initiative.

July 16, 2025 - Kerry Longhurst

Authoritarian sandbox: Belarus as a testing ground for 21st century repression

This year’s so-called presidential elections in Belarus were nothing more than a staged farce, designed to legitimize Lukashenka’s continued authoritarian rule. The absence of genuine competition, the lack of transparency, and the climate of fear surrounding the process underscored the regime’s disregard for democratic principles.

The 2025 “presidential elections” in Belarus have come and gone, leaving behind a predictable outcome: a reaffirmation of Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s authoritarian grip on power. Far from resembling a legitimate democratic process, the elections were a meticulously staged performance, devoid of genuine opposition, independent observers or transparency. This farce was not merely an exercise in self-reappointment – it was a glaring demonstration of a regime clinging to power through fear and repression.

July 8, 2025 - Leanid Marozau

Belarus after the war: at a crossroads

A possible truce in Russia’s war against Ukraine, resulting in what could be a frozen conflict, looks to be the best scenario for Alyaksandr Lukashenka. On the one hand, Russia would not completely shift away from its military focus, keeping a large army near the front line and preparing for possible future operations. On the other hand, a truce could help open the door to a partial lifting of western sanctions, many of which were imposed alongside Russia.

In late 2024, the potential return of Donald Trump was perceived by the Belarusian authorities as a window of opportunity for political bargaining with the West in the shadow of the start of possible peace talks over the Russo-Ukrainian War. In order to be as prepared as possible, the Belarusian leader Alyaksandr Lukashenka held his electoral campaign six months before the end of his 2020 presidential term, right on the verge of the inauguration of the new US president.

July 8, 2025 - Pavlo Rad

Dancing with the dictator: how Belarusian propaganda took over TikTok

In September 2020, following the August protests and mass state media layoffs, Russia Today sent a team to Belarus. Their mission was to help reboot state media and to teach social media strategies. Since then, Belarusian institutions have leaned heavily on the Russian experience. One of their key platforms for cheap and effective propaganda distribution has been TikTok.

On the left, a young man is picking outfits for his visit to the military office. On the right, a man in uniform rates each look with sarcastic flair. Just another quirky TikTok? Not quite. The TikTok clip, created in the platform’s popular “stitch” format, has gained over seven million views. What seems like harmless fun is actually part of something much bigger – a surge of pro-Lukashenka TikTok creators aiming to promote regime narratives. The campaign makes authoritarianism look relatable, even charming. Welcome to Lukashenka’s TikTok, where propaganda comes complete with trendy beats and filters. Is there any chance for pro-democratic forces to fight back?

July 8, 2025 - Kseniya Tarasevich

In the digital shadows, Belarusian cyber partisans unnerve Lukashenka

While Lukashenka might have managed to restore order within Belarus, resistance to his rule continues both inside and outside the country. This is particularly clear in the online sphere, where groups are now actively challenging the government with real-life consequences.

May 8, 2025 - David Kirichenko 

Poland is defending Europe from Russia’s hybrid war

EU cooperation with Warsaw must strengthen as Russia’s systemic threat becomes clear.

April 4, 2025 - Hugo Blewett-Mundy

Is Georgia experiencing its own Belarus moment?

Georgia is currently experiencing one of the most significant waves of protests in its recent history. The intensity of the protests, the high stakes involved and the repression by the authorities evoke comparisons to the 2020 protests in Belarus. However, how similar are these protests, and what can be said about the responses from the Georgian authorities, the European Union and other international actors?

The recent protests in Georgia have seen widespread mobilization across the country, with demonstrators employing various tactics to express their discontent with the government's decision to suspend accession talks with the European Union. In Tbilisi, the capital, tens of thousands of protesters have gathered for consecutive nights, waving Georgian and EU flags while chanting slogans like "Russian slaves" at law enforcement officers.

February 28, 2025 - Giselle Bosse Wicke van den Broek

The contradiction of the female figure in Belarusian politics

In the months leading up to the 2020 elections, Alyaksandr Lukashenka's remark that the “constitution is not written for women” sparked significant public outcry. Operating within a deeply patriarchal paradigm, he rarely shies away from such sexist comments. Yet, he continuously underestimates the role of women and their potential in politics, as seen in recent Belarusian history.

Since 1994 Alyaksandr Lukashenka has held an unyielding grip on Belarus, often referring to himself as a “women's president”. This characterization is not without purpose; he strategically appeals to specific demographics within the electorate, many of whom find themselves in vulnerable positions reliant on state social support – predominantly women. One might wonder why he still seeks voter loyalty when elections are routinely manipulated and international observers repeatedly report ballot stuffing and significant violations in vote counting. The reality is that genuine support from even a fraction of the electorate simplifies his task. It allows for less money and administrative resources to be spent on falsification and for mitigating the impacts of dishonest elections. The mass protests of 2020 arose precisely because the scale and transparency of the fraud were too blatant to ignore.

February 28, 2025 - Nasta Zakharevich

Same old: Lukashenka’s centrally planned economy is a burden for Belarus

Belarus is well known for its autocratic style of rule. This concept of governance has its roots in the Soviet system, which Minsk borrows heavily from in everyday administration. This approach interestingly extends to the country’s economy, which remains dominated by industry that is owned by the authoritarian state.

February 17, 2025 - Zuzanna Kalinowska

Why India must distance itself from Lukashenka’s Belarus

In addition to being bought and paid for by the Kremlin, the embattled Belarusian dictator is becoming dangerously beholden to China. An opportunity now exists for India to actively distance itself from Minsk.

January 24, 2025 - Saahil Menon

The 2025 Belarusian presidential elections

The upcoming presidential election in Belarus will help give an indication as to the strength of Lukashenka’s grip on the country. While it is clear who will come out on top in the rigged vote, a level of dissent could once again be expressed by an opposition brought to life by the last race five years ago.

January 17, 2025 - Mark Temnycky

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