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Tag: belarus

Can Belarusian civil society survive and even pose a threat to the dictatorship?

Since August 2020, Belarusian civil society has been experiencing a crackdown from the Alyaksandr Lukashenka regime that has been unprecedented in the 21st century. After widespread peaceful protests, the authorities launched a systematic extermination of all civil initiatives and NGOs without taking into consideration their political involvement. However, this did not prevent Belarusian civil society from not only existing, but developing in various forms, sometimes in ways completely surprising.

September 27, 2025 - Zmicier Mickievič

The EU-US policy divide over Belarus

As the Russia-Ukraine war grinds on with little movement towards President Donald Trump’s pledged “24-hour resolution”, other arenas have gained momentum in his second-term foreign policy. Amid this dynamic context, Minsk has recently surfaced as a new, previously untapped, yet demonstrably successful venue for his deal-making agenda – and a potential strategic lever in Washington’s efforts to shake up the war next door.

September 27, 2025 - Vitali Matyshau

Belarusian folklore as a language of expression during repressions

Throughout history, Belarusians have turned to their rich folklore traditions in times of repression. What may appear as a period of cultural stagnation is, in fact, often a moment of resilience and creative revival. The current wave of repression is no exception – once again, Belarusian culture is finding ways to endure.

September 26, 2025 - Alina Kovalev

Europe’s narrowing menu on policy towards Belarus

Since even before 2020, EU sanctions against Belarus have failed to achieve their core goals, neither crippling the economy nor forcing a change in Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s behaviour. Instead, the EU strategy has arguably backfired – tightening authoritarian control, worsening human rights conditions, and even bolstering domestic support for the regime.

September 17, 2025 - Vitali Matyshau

Not just pushbacks: the controversial deforestation at the Lithuanian-Belarusian border

Illegal migration remains a key problem along the traditionally quiet border between Lithuania and Belarus. While Vilnius continues to push back migrants, it has also felled many ancient trees along the frontier. A delicate balance of rights concerns has subsequently emerged in the area.

August 5, 2025 - Giulia Pilia

The Belarusian democratic forces after the 2025 presidential election

The democratic opposition in Belarus experienced something of a rebirth during the presidential election five years ago. Today, following the most recent vote, activists remain determined to bring freedom to their country from the authorities in both Minsk and Moscow.

August 4, 2025 - Mark Temnycky

A calculated gesture? The release of Siarhei Tsikhanouski and the future of the Belarusian democratic forces

The release of Siarhei Tsikhanouski in June 2025 marks a pivotal moment in Belarusian political theater — not as a sign of liberalization, but as a calculated maneuver within Lukashenka’s enduring strategy of controlled concessions. The regime's selective clemency is an expression of geopolitical signaling, manipulation of opposition dynamics, and reinforcement of authoritarian resilience.

July 25, 2025 - Hanna Vasilevich

Who is leading and lagging on democracy and reforms in the EU’s Eastern Partnership?

The 2025 Eastern Partnership Index tracks the democratic transformation and European integration in the countries that participated in the initiative.

July 16, 2025 - Kerry Longhurst

Authoritarian sandbox: Belarus as a testing ground for 21st century repression

This year’s so-called presidential elections in Belarus were nothing more than a staged farce, designed to legitimize Lukashenka’s continued authoritarian rule. The absence of genuine competition, the lack of transparency, and the climate of fear surrounding the process underscored the regime’s disregard for democratic principles.

The 2025 “presidential elections” in Belarus have come and gone, leaving behind a predictable outcome: a reaffirmation of Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s authoritarian grip on power. Far from resembling a legitimate democratic process, the elections were a meticulously staged performance, devoid of genuine opposition, independent observers or transparency. This farce was not merely an exercise in self-reappointment – it was a glaring demonstration of a regime clinging to power through fear and repression.

July 8, 2025 - Leanid Marozau

Belarus after the war: at a crossroads

A possible truce in Russia’s war against Ukraine, resulting in what could be a frozen conflict, looks to be the best scenario for Alyaksandr Lukashenka. On the one hand, Russia would not completely shift away from its military focus, keeping a large army near the front line and preparing for possible future operations. On the other hand, a truce could help open the door to a partial lifting of western sanctions, many of which were imposed alongside Russia.

In late 2024, the potential return of Donald Trump was perceived by the Belarusian authorities as a window of opportunity for political bargaining with the West in the shadow of the start of possible peace talks over the Russo-Ukrainian War. In order to be as prepared as possible, the Belarusian leader Alyaksandr Lukashenka held his electoral campaign six months before the end of his 2020 presidential term, right on the verge of the inauguration of the new US president.

July 8, 2025 - Pavlo Rad

Dancing with the dictator: how Belarusian propaganda took over TikTok

In September 2020, following the August protests and mass state media layoffs, Russia Today sent a team to Belarus. Their mission was to help reboot state media and to teach social media strategies. Since then, Belarusian institutions have leaned heavily on the Russian experience. One of their key platforms for cheap and effective propaganda distribution has been TikTok.

On the left, a young man is picking outfits for his visit to the military office. On the right, a man in uniform rates each look with sarcastic flair. Just another quirky TikTok? Not quite. The TikTok clip, created in the platform’s popular “stitch” format, has gained over seven million views. What seems like harmless fun is actually part of something much bigger – a surge of pro-Lukashenka TikTok creators aiming to promote regime narratives. The campaign makes authoritarianism look relatable, even charming. Welcome to Lukashenka’s TikTok, where propaganda comes complete with trendy beats and filters. Is there any chance for pro-democratic forces to fight back?

July 8, 2025 - Kseniya Tarasevich

In the digital shadows, Belarusian cyber partisans unnerve Lukashenka

While Lukashenka might have managed to restore order within Belarus, resistance to his rule continues both inside and outside the country. This is particularly clear in the online sphere, where groups are now actively challenging the government with real-life consequences.

May 8, 2025 - David Kirichenko 

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