The relationship between the two longest-serving European presidents has always been riddled with not-so-inconspicuous power-wrestling, wrapped in a narrative of brotherhood and sprinkled with cosy photo-ops. Up until recently, both leaders enjoyed relative stability on their own political turf, allowing them to manage their bilateral relations from positions of strength.

Constitutional reform is a hot topic in and outside of Belarus. Two approaches are currently underway: one led by Alyaksandr Lukashenka and another by the opposition, led by Sviatlana Tsikhanouksaya.

The need for change to the Belarusian constitution was announced long before the events of 2020, and both Alyaksandr Lukashenka and the opposition have initiated a process after the election. The opposition has emphasised the need for changes to the constitution by the political crisis while Lukashenka’s initial interest in constitutional reform was two-fold: to calm the protests and to assure Russia that he can maintain control over the situation. Based on an official proposal recently announced, the changes proposed by Lukashenka’s constitutional commission do not encompass substantive change to the existing non-democratic model, making it even more bureaucratic and slow.

In an effort to tame Alyaksandr Lukashenka, several NGO’s are calling on the International Criminal Court to initiate an investigation into the misdeeds of his regime. A goat trail seems to be the only option.

The recent emboldened moves made by Lukashenka seem to be pushing Belarus even closer into Russia's embrace. Faced with behaviours difficult to explain one must ask - who gains?

On May 14th, Alyaksandr Lukashenka approved a new law on preventing the rehabilitation of Nazism. It quickly became a part of the regime's strategy to suppress Belarusian civil society following the 2020 presidential election. The authorities also launched a criminal investigation into the genocide of Belarus’s population during WWII.

Lukashenka is no longer a "batka", the father of all Belarusians. His supporters used this nickname because of their affirmation and his opponents – because of patriarchal nature for his rule. He himself accepted the name without a shred of modesty and at times spoke about his role in the third person. However, after 26 years, the children have rebelled and disowned their authoritarian father. By lying and using brutal violence, the long-term leader of the Belarusian state has irrevocably lost his legitimacy among the people. However, this only encourages him to stay in power – by any means necessary.

The current Belarusian transformation looks as if it could be having results similar to those of the 2018 Velvet Revolution in Armenia rather than of the 2013-2014 Revolution of Dignity in Ukraine. Yet, the pathological relationship of Moscow’s imperialism towards Russia’s Eastern Slavic “brotherly nations” can mean that Belarus’s future may, in the end, become more similar to Ukraine’s rather than Armenia’s present.

Ukraine and Belarus are two of the culturally and geographically closest nations of Europe. Their Eastern Slavic languages, major Christian-Orthodox churches and peculiar locations between Russia, on the one side, and the European Union (as well as NATO), on the other, are comparable and intertwined. Both are, on one level, very close to the also largely Orthodox and Eastern Slavic Russians.

An Interview with Anaïs Marin, the UN Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Belarus (OHCHR). Interviewer: Anastasiia Starchenko.

The recent fraudulent presidential election in Belarus has triggered continuous mass protests throughout the country. The violent crackdown of the protests resulted in substantial international condemnation of the activities that Lukashenka's regime undertook. Among those calling for dialogue, there are voices in favour of a new free and fair presidential election with international observers.

Lukashenka is running out of options as the mass protest of Belarusian society continues with no sign of weakening.

During his 26 year long rule, Lukashenka has centralised the power structure around himself. This could be why there has been little incentive from the elites in Belarus to remove him so far.

Authorities claim landslide victory for President Lukashenka in an election that was neither free nor fair.