The results of the first round of the presidential election in Ukraine will pit incumbent President Petro Poroshenko against comedian and TV star Volodymyr Zelenskiy. A surprisingly unpredictable election process will continue through April. 

Just days before the first round of the Ukrainian presidential election scheduled for Sunday March 31st, the preferences of voters seem to be further consolidating.

There is a dangerous scenario for the first round of Ukraine’s upcoming presidential elections: political-technological trickery could unsettle social stability in Ukraine. Cynical puppet masters are prepared to risk the outbreak of a major domestic civil conflict for the sake of securing re-election of Ukraine’s incumbent president.

Many of Ukraine’s presidential candidates systematically lie about their support for reforms and European integration. Finding the real reformer is hard – but urgent if Ukraine is to break the cycle of corruption and Russian aggression.

Moscow has long exploited Ukraine’s far-right movements as scarecrows, inflating their political importance, in an effort to discredit the Ukrainian nation, as a whole. But in reality, ultra-nationalist parties in post-Soviet Ukraine have struggled to find support for several election cycles now. If the various groups cannot unite, they are likely to fail once again in the 2019 parliamentary elections.

As the Ukrainian presidential elections approach later this month, many political scientists are talking about the shocking popularity of comedian-candidate Volodymyr Zelenskiy. But perhaps they should also spend more time discussing the negative aspects of the candidate and the struggles his potential election could bring to Ukraine.

A recent panel in Brussels gave five Ukrainian presidential candidates the opportunity for a surrogate to give a speech on behalf of their campaign. Most of them were utterly deceptive, simply lying, rejecting the firm positions of their candidates to tell the European audience what they wanted to hear. Such deception reveals a troubling future for Ukraine if one of these anti-Western populists takes the presidency.

The upcoming Ukrainian presidential elections are an opportunity to continue the reform process that has, so far, produced effective results and to instil a political will to deliver other fundamental changes. But this opportunity is likely to be missed, as many candidates offer band-aid solutions with no clear strategic vision.

Much like champagne and fireworks, the presidential address delivered before the countdown to midnight is a traditional ingredient of New Year celebrations in Ukraine. As 2018 was ending, 1+1 – a top TV channel owned by oligarch, Ihor Kolomoisky – broke that sequence. It aired Volodymyr Zelenskiy, a comedian and entertainment producer, announcing his long-speculated bid for the presidency. “There is a third way: to try and change something in the country and I have chosen it for myself,” he said in a soothing voice familiar to his comedy show, jewellery ads and TV show The Servant of the People, a series where he plays an honest schoolteacher who accidentally becomes president and sends corrupt officials to jail amidst dramatic soundtracks and standing ovations from vyshyvanka-clad extras.

Given the new trends of the Ukrainian presidential campaign and the unexpected leadership of the candidate-comedian Volodymyr Zelenskiy in the polls, one can well expect the consolidation of the political heavyweights Yulia Tymoshenko and Petro Poroshenko to counter a non-system player who is nevertheless capable of burying their chances of political success in the upcoming elections.

Could the jester become king?

Yulia Tymoshenko began her election campaign first among candidates and has, according to estimates by different Ukrainian NGO’s, spent the most on it. Tymoshenko was in the lead in every opinion poll until February and she has a good chance to be elected president in the second round of the elections in the third week of April.

Viktor Yushchenko's former minister of defence and his bid for the 2019 elections.