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Author: Pavlo Rad

Does the meeting between Zelenskyy and Tsikhanouskaya mark the beginning of a new approach towards Belarus?

Connections between Kyiv and the democratic forces of Belarus have for a long time remained mired in uncertainty. However, this could well change following a high-profile meeting in Lithuania, with the shared goals of both sides potentially resulting in greater cooperation in the future.

February 6, 2026 - Pavlo Rad

Belarus after the war: at a crossroads

A possible truce in Russia’s war against Ukraine, resulting in what could be a frozen conflict, looks to be the best scenario for Alyaksandr Lukashenka. On the one hand, Russia would not completely shift away from its military focus, keeping a large army near the front line and preparing for possible future operations. On the other hand, a truce could help open the door to a partial lifting of western sanctions, many of which were imposed alongside Russia.

In late 2024, the potential return of Donald Trump was perceived by the Belarusian authorities as a window of opportunity for political bargaining with the West in the shadow of the start of possible peace talks over the Russo-Ukrainian War. In order to be as prepared as possible, the Belarusian leader Alyaksandr Lukashenka held his electoral campaign six months before the end of his 2020 presidential term, right on the verge of the inauguration of the new US president.

July 8, 2025 - Pavlo Rad

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