As Georgia prepares for the 2024 parliamentary elections, it faces challenges that threaten the nation’s already fragile democracy and undermine its pro-European stance. Given the problems of a fragmented opposition, overwhelming public distrust in political parties and the return of the pro-Russian oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili on the political stage, the upcoming elections are expected to be a defining point for Georgia’s democracy and European path.

Georgia, a country whose democratic system has been shaken lately, is now facing a critical test of its democracy as it gears up for the 2024 parliamentary elections. The elections will determine if the Georgian Dream (GD) party stays in power for a fourth term. The upcoming elections have become more important since Georgia received EU candidacy status in 2023. While a significant step towards the country’s Europeanization, candidate status does not formally guarantee EU membership.

The war in Ukraine has caused millions of people from the country to flee to various states in Europe. Despite this, there are also many Russians who have attempted to leave their own country following the full-scale invasion. This phenomenon has been met with different responses in various states near Russia.

The war in Ukraine strengthened the de-Sovietisation process already taking place in Eastern Europe. It has pushed states to further remove the remnants of the Soviet past, including monuments, which are believed to have ideological symbolism and play a significant role in shaping collective identity.

Since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russia’s actions have been discussed not only as a brutal violation of the territorial integrity and sovereignty of a neighbouring state, but also as a continuation of Russian imperial policy and a desire to rebuild the Soviet Union. Yet, amidst the war in Ukraine, Eastern Europe showed its powerful counter-desire to be freed from the Soviet past and Russian influence.

Karabakh remains a key global hot spot in terms of periodic clashes between conflicting parties – Armenia and Azerbaijan. The collective West has often been criticised because of its inability to take a leading role in the peace process, especially after the Second Karabakh War of 2020 enabled Russia to increase its influence in the South Caucasus. However, the ongoing war in Ukraine has influenced the Karabakh peace process, which in light of Russia’s shifting attention and declining resources has resulted in a weakened role for Moscow. There now seems to be momentum for the West to play an important role in the process, which will be beneficial for all parties. 

Georgia’s response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine has caused controversy at home and abroad. Adopting an approach aimed at avoiding Moscow’s attention, the state has often been accused of effectively pursuing a pro-Kremlin outlook. Tbilisi must now take clear and effective steps to support Ukraine in order to win back the trust of its partners.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which has already dramatically changed developments in Europe, has become closely linked with Georgia’s internal politics. The ruling Georgian Dream party has come under strong criticism from society many times due to their not necessarily clear position on, and lack of support for, Ukraine. Many even believe that if previously Georgian Dream tried to maintain a pro-western image, then the war in Ukraine has unveiled their real face in terms of being pro-Russian. In this critical period, the party managed to make Georgian-Ukrainian relations tense, with a diplomatic scandal erupting between the two countries.

Ankara and Yerevan’s ongoing talks to normalise relations could result in radical change at both the bilateral and regional level. Despite this, various historical and contemporary issues continue to challenge this process.