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Author: Hanna Vasilevich

The return of Siarhei Tsikhanouski and what it means for the Belarusian democratic forces

The re-entry of Siarhei Tsikhanouski into the Belarusian political scene has revealed fault lines within the opposition movement. His symbolic role, carefully maintained by his wife Sviatlana and the broader opposition, has now collided with the structured, diplomatically-oriented political architecture built in his absence.

February 23, 2026 - Hanna Vasilevich

A calculated gesture? The release of Siarhei Tsikhanouski and the future of the Belarusian democratic forces

The release of Siarhei Tsikhanouski in June 2025 marks a pivotal moment in Belarusian political theater — not as a sign of liberalization, but as a calculated maneuver within Lukashenka’s enduring strategy of controlled concessions. The regime's selective clemency is an expression of geopolitical signaling, manipulation of opposition dynamics, and reinforcement of authoritarian resilience.

July 25, 2025 - Hanna Vasilevich

Belarus’s Day of National Unity: reinforcing regime narratives and alienating minorities

On September 17th, Belarus celebrated its fourth annual “Day of National Unity”, a public holiday established by Alyaksandr Lukashenka's decree in 2021. This date, marking the Soviet invasion of Poland in 1939, continues to be a focal point for the regime's endeavours to revise history. Its anti-Polish rhetoric further strains relations with its western neighbour and alienates Belarus's Polish minority.

November 7, 2024 - Hanna Vasilevich

The impact of western sanctions on Belarus

The targeted sanctions imposed on Belarus in 2022 did not take long to deliver a powerful blow to the nation's economy. The immediate aftermath was characterized by a sharp contraction, marking the onset of what economists have termed a “transformational recession”. Yet, the Lukashenka regime, bolstered by its close ties with Russia and its tight grip on domestic power structures, has so far weathered the storm.

September 20, 2024 - Hanna Vasilevich

Belarus and Russia: not in one but different baskets

In spite of their shared desires to challenge the status quo, the Belarusian and Russian oppositions do not always see eye to eye. This is largely the result of a continued assumption that Belarus is uniquely tied to its larger neighbour. The status of Belarusian exiles in the EU today subsequently depends on the recognition of these differences.

April 8, 2024 - Hanna Vasilevich

Litvinism: when history becomes securitized

Lithuania’s support for those Belarusians protesting against the Lukashenka regime has become well known in recent years. Despite this, an argument over the centuries-long interactions between the two peoples could possibly threaten this unity.

March 7, 2024 - Hanna Vasilevich

A referendum in the shadow of war

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has shifted international attention away from yet another referendum in Belarus. Like all the previous ones, these reforms significantly change the Belarusian political landscape, while giving Alyaksandr Lukashenka even more influence and power.

A long-debated constitutional referendum was held in Belarus on February 27th. It had only one question: do you accept the new constitutional amendments? An alternative version of the constitution was put forward by the country’s democratic forces outside of Belarus called “The People's Constitution”. However, this was not even considered by the state working group. Despite an official invitation to all citizens to participate in public debate and suggest proposals, it became obvious that only those changes proposed in line with the regime's vision would be considered and adopted by Minsk.

July 14, 2022 - Hanna Vasilevich

The Belarusian migrant crisis and state propaganda

The height of the migrant crisis on the Belarus-Poland border made headlines around the world last year in what was to become a prelude to Lukashenka dragging Belarus into Putin's invasion of Ukraine

March 14, 2022 - Hanna Vasilevich

Constitutional reform process in Belarus: recent trends and developments

Constitutional reform is a hot topic in and outside of Belarus. Two approaches are currently underway: one led by Alyaksandr Lukashenka and another by the opposition, led by Sviatlana Tsikhanouksaya.

The need for change to the Belarusian constitution was announced long before the events of 2020, and both Alyaksandr Lukashenka and the opposition have initiated a process after the election. The opposition has emphasised the need for changes to the constitution by the political crisis while Lukashenka’s initial interest in constitutional reform was two-fold: to calm the protests and to assure Russia that he can maintain control over the situation. Based on an official proposal recently announced, the changes proposed by Lukashenka’s constitutional commission do not encompass substantive change to the existing non-democratic model, making it even more bureaucratic and slow.

September 12, 2021 - Hanna Vasilevich

Constitutional reform in Belarus: Consolidation or conflict?

The much-debated topic of constitutional reform in Belarus was discussed once again at the All-Belarusian People’s Congress in February. Lukashenka has requested a draft of the new constitution by the end of 2021. Will this settle the political conflict in Belarus or lead to more protests and violence?

March 3, 2021 - Hanna Vasilevich

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