In light of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, NATO has come to a realisation that irrespective of circumstances, the present leadership of Russia will persist in its revisionist approach and become increasingly agitated in the event of a potential loss in the conflict. Consequently, NATO must proactively ready itself for an extended deterrence strategy vis-à-vis Russia, and be prepared to implement a defence strategy if the need arises. These are the key lessons already learnt over the last 15 months.

The next NATO summit will be held on July 11-12th 2018 in Brussels. It provides the alliance with an opportunity to uphold or – if needed – potentially update the decisions regarding its relationship with Russia, Ukraine and Georgia. Certainly NATO must assess what it can realistically achieve in today’s relations with Moscow, Kyiv and Tbilisi.

The NATO summit in Warsaw in July 2016 constituted a turning point for the alliance. For NATO’s deterrence and defence policy it was not just a summit. It was the summit. A number of crucial decisions were made including a set of instruments that enhance NATO’s eastern flank. Most importantly, the allies agreed to establish an enhanced forward presence which consists of four multinational battalions in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland. NATO also endorsed a tailored forward presence for the south-eastern flank which has been built around a Romanian framework brigade. Moreover, NATO decided to recognise cyberspace as an operational domain – joining land, air and sea – which enables the alliance to better protect its networks, missions, and operations.

The official phase of “Zapad-2017”, the biggest Russian-Belarusian military exercise this year, started today (September 14th). Yet, this event has been analysed by security pundits for months. There were many speculations about how this exercise will change the regional dynamics and security situation. The aim of this article is to put “Zapad-2017” into a larger perspective. How do the Russian armed forces train and what is the purpose of those drills? What has changed since the previous “Zapad” exercise which took place in 2013? What is to watch during “Zapad-2017”?