The current sanctions by the West against Belarus might end up being ineffective, if not counterproductive. They will certainly contribute to the economic stress of the population at large and current independent business owners in particular. But it remains doubtful they will achieve their aim of ousting Lukashenka.

In June 2021, the European Union announced a new package (the fourth one) of sanctions against the Belarusian regime, including sectoral sanctions aimed at restricting commodity exports of oil products and potash. Many have argued these sanctions will force financial difficulties on the state and thus increase pressures on Alyaksandr Lukashenka to step down, making way for new and free elections. Yet the question remains how effective they really will be if the aim is to ultimately bring down Lukashenka and bring democracy to Belarus?