An interview with Thomas de Waal, a senior fellow with Carnegie Europe. Interviewer: Bartłomiej Krzysztan

BARTŁOMIEJ KRZYSZTAN: The second Nagorno-Karabakh war left the South Caucasus in new geopolitical circumstances. What do you perceive as the main changes from the perspective of the international order? 

THOMAS DE WAAL: This war was a defeat for the attempt to achieve a multilateral, international peaceful resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Since the early 1990s that has been the vision: that this was a conflict which had not just Russian mediation, but also mediation from the United States and France. Part of the vision was that it would be some kind of multilateral peace, maybe similar to the one we have seen in the Balkans, but hopefully without its flaws, one which would take into account human rights abuses and be accompanied by some democratisation and a European integration agenda. That was the hope.

The history of inter-ethnic hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan is a long series of repeating pogroms, massacres and violence. The recent war in Nagorno-Karabakh, which has ended with a Russian-led ceasefire agreement, constitutes just one more chapter in this never-ending conflict.

Almost 30 years ago, on May 9th 1992, Armenian forces captured the Azerbaijan city of Shusha after a spectacular offensive. In a world without Twitter, the narrative about liberation and escaping the Azerbaijani army spread instantly. The story of the restoration of historical justice for Armenians deprived of their ancient lands for years covered the catastrophe of thousands of Azerbaijani families forced to flee the Nagorno-Karabakh. Two years later, a ceasefire was signed in Bishkek, yet the war did not end for good.

The Velvet Revolution in Armenia brought not only Nikol Pashinyan to power but also hope of changing Armenia’s trajectory. However, overcoming the challenges that Armenia faces, particularly in geopolitics and foreign policy, will be critical in order to break the cycle of events that has plagued the country since the fall of the Soviet Union.

Political analysts and scientists frequently forget about their core responsibility, often preparing a simple analysis of events and extrapolating superficial conclusions. However, the actual challenge lies in an attempt to find patterns and long-lasting determinants behind power relations in everyday political dynamics. In the case of Armenia, much has already been written about the revolutionary events from last spring, which brought an end to the decades-long ruling class and a new face to the political scene – most notably Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. The order of events, possible outcomes and varied predictions were produced by many from different angles of interpretation.

Nikol Pashinyan took it all. After months of struggling to serve as prime minister without parliamentary support, he finally got the majority he needed. The landslide victory provides Pashinyan a strong mandate to continue the revolutionary changes. The society has hope as well as significant expectations. However, the consequences and evaluations are now legitimate as well. There are no more excuses, so the real challenge begins. 

Temporarily uniting the opposition, an active campaign and intensive negative rhetoric towards his opponent was not enough to bring Grigol Vashadze to victory in the Georgian presidential elections.

A few days before the elections, a walk along Tbilisi’s valleys or a trip between the main roads connecting Georgian towns reminds the traveller of what a state ruled by one man looks like. Catching sight of Salome Zurabishvili’s campaign, uninformed passers-by could get the impression that there is only one candidate for the presidential post. Yet despite the campaign pictures, her victory in the approaching elections is not a given.

The approaching year might be groundbreaking for Armenia’s political scene, as the country awaits president Serzh Sargsyan’s decision on what to do after his mandate ends in April 2018.

Saakashvili’s triumphant return to Ukraine last Sunday made for big news and opened a new chapter in the ongoing political turmoil in the country. Shortly upon arrival, Saakashvili announced his will to unite Ukrainian opposition and take power back from the diktat of oligarchs. However, his plans may prove to be difficult to realize. The ongoing criminal investigation into his abuse of power while still president of Georgia puts his political future under question, especially as the alliance between Petro Poroshenko and Bidzina Ivanishvili remains determined.