Subscribe to NEE
Text resize: A A
Change contrast
Cart (0) |

Analysis

The re-Sovietisation of Belarus

The nature of the crisis in Belarus is the same as in other countries of the region, with the collapse of old Soviet structures in the economy, society, politics and ideology. Alyaksandr Lukashenka does not understand the urbanised modern society he is trying to rule. In order to re-establish control, his regime is trying to move the society backwards. Repressions will be extremely costly for Belarusian society, but Lukashenka’s goal is unlikely to be achieved.

The past two years saw growing pressure from western sanctions on the Belarusian regime. Each move Alyaksandr Lukashenka took since 2020 has further limited his room for manoeuvre. After each of his decisions – the brutal crackdown of the 2020 protests; the repressions that followed; the grounding of the Ryanair plane; and finally, the support for the Russian invasion of Ukraine – a new wave of sanctions was introduced.

December 7, 2022 - Aliaksandr Papko Kacper Wańczyk

Neo-totalitarianism as a new political reality in Belarus

The large shift that has taken place within Belarusian society has illustrated both a high demand for change and the loss of broad support for Alyaksandr Lukashenka. This has led the ruling elite to realise that the regime can no longer operate in the same conditions it had pre-2020. Serious restructuring was thus necessary to ensure that the regime maintains its overall control of the state and counters any form of anti-system civic activity.

The political system in Belarus has undergone a series of changes since Alyaksandr Lukashenka came to power in 1994. Over this period of 28 years it has evolved from a hybrid regime, which included elements of façade democracy, to a neo-totalitarian one. This transformation was possible because of changes that had taken place within society and the state, and which in the end allowed for the formation of new authoritarian institutions, practices and methods.

December 7, 2022 - Pavel Usau

In anticipation of a new world

Despite being neighbours, the societies of Ukraine and Belarus know very little about each other. The Kremlin’s use of Belarusian land in its invasion of Ukraine suggests that this divide may persist into the future. However, it is clear that the two countries’ democratic populations will have great potential for cooperation in the years ahead.

The analytical group “BELARUS-UKRAINE-REGION” was established at the end of 2020 at the University of Warsaw. At that moment it was already quite clear that the Belarusian revolution of 2020 would not lead to a quick change of power in Minsk. There was also not yet much talk of a full-scale war in Ukraine, which is Belarus’s neighbour. In fact, analysts and observers who spoke about such a threat in 2021, or even early 2022, would usually add a disclaimer that in their view, the breakout of a war was a very unlikely scenario.

December 7, 2022 - Oleksandr Shevchenko

Gudijos istorija for the 21st century

With regards to Belarus, it is difficult to ask Lithuanians, or actually any other neighbouring society, about how they perceive Belarusians. The truth is that in this country we are dealing with two entities: the official Belarus and the Belarus of the opposition.

At first glance, in the autumn of 2022, Vilnius has enjoyed a normal life. The capital of Lithuania has finally almost returned to its pre-pandemic pace of life. The majority of institutions are now working like they were before. The same can be said about small shops, coffee shops and restaurants. Even though the prices that you pay there are much higher. It is also not difficult to notice that some new places have been set up. For example, on Gediminas Avenue there is a bar called Pahonia, while Vilnius Street is now home to the Belarusian House, which is located near the main government building.

December 7, 2022 - Andrzej Pukszto

Momentum for change in the Romanian energy sector

With the start of Russia’s unprovoked military invasion of Ukraine, one of the main problems on the mind of every European became the insecurity and instability around energy supply. In a race to diversify their sources of supply, countries who are dependent on Russian energy began to explore options that had been previously avoided. As European countries struggle to cut ties with their unstable Eastern partner, Romania is increasingly seen as a future European energy hub.

December 5, 2022 - Alexandru Demianenco

Not like other Croats? Emigration patterns and voting behaviour of Herzegovinian Croats

The complex voter dynamics of Bosnia and Herzegovina offer fertile soil for disinformation about ethnic voting patterns. Among these stereotypes is the belief that Herzegovinian Croats are a vocal nationalist minority who emigrate more from the country. Despite this, analysis of recent election data suggests that this outlook is totally false.

November 25, 2022 - Valentino Grbavac

Ukraine and the EU: scenarios of European integration

Many now talk about Ukraine’s potential membership of the European Union. However, there has been little discussion on how Kyiv could become a member state in a practical sense. A recent EU-funded event in the Ukrainian capital offered insight into the country’s prospects, ultimately laying out various positive, negative and middle of the road scenarios.

November 18, 2022 - Valerii Pekar

The South Caucasian dimension of the war in Ukraine: Russia’s declining influence is giving the West a role in the Karabakh peace process

Karabakh remains a key global hot spot in terms of periodic clashes between conflicting parties – Armenia and Azerbaijan. The collective West has often been criticised because of its inability to take a leading role in the peace process, especially after the Second Karabakh War of 2020 enabled Russia to increase its influence in the South Caucasus. However, the ongoing war in Ukraine has influenced the Karabakh peace process, which in light of Russia’s shifting attention and declining resources has resulted in a weakened role for Moscow. There now seems to be momentum for the West to play an important role in the process, which will be beneficial for all parties. 

November 7, 2022 - Nino Chanadiri

The Russia-Ukraine conflict: what is next?

Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine has now reached an important point. While Kyiv continues to make steady progress on the battlefield, Moscow is attempting to shore up its defences for over the winter. The coming months will likely prove crucial to the outcome of the conflict.

November 4, 2022 - Julia Ryng Leon Hartwell

The seven levels of the war

The ongoing war in Ukraine is much more than just the fighting on the frontline. It is ultimately a war for ideals, a conflict that stretches to the theoretical limits of global politics.

October 31, 2022 - Andrii Dligach Valerii Pekar

When Russia is over…

The potential for internal strife in Russia has scared western administrations for many decades. Instead of propping up the Kremlin, decision-makers should accept the possibility of change as a positive development.

October 26, 2022 - Helen Faller Nick Gluzdov

Expert opinion: what state instruments are not used to optimize the heating season

“111 billion hryvnias of Naftogaz subsidies will not stimulate energy-efficient behavior of the population" says Oleksiy Korchmit, Head of the Ukrainian Association of Energy Service Campaigns. According to the Cabinet of Ministers, gas should be enough for the heating season 2022-2023, although only 13.2 billion cubic meters were accumulated instead of the planned 19 billion cubic meters.

October 23, 2022 - Olena Burnos

Partners

Terms of Use | Cookie policy | Copyryight 2025 Kolegium Europy Wschodniej im. Jana Nowaka-Jeziorańskiego 31-153 Kraków
Agencja digital: hauerpower studio krakow.
We use cookies to personalise content and ads, to provide social media features and to analyse our traffic. We also share information about your use of our site with our social media, advertising and analytics partners. View more
Cookies settings
Accept
Decline
Privacy & Cookie policy
Privacy & Cookies policy
Cookies list
Cookie name Active
Poniższa Polityka Prywatności – klauzule informacyjne dotyczące przetwarzania danych osobowych w związku z korzystaniem z serwisu internetowego https://neweasterneurope.eu/ lub usług dostępnych za jego pośrednictwem Polityka Prywatności zawiera informacje wymagane przez przepisy Rozporządzenia Parlamentu Europejskiego i Rady 2016/679 w sprawie ochrony osób fizycznych w związku z przetwarzaniem danych osobowych i w sprawie swobodnego przepływu takich danych oraz uchylenia dyrektywy 95/46/WE (RODO). Całość do przeczytania pod tym linkiem
Save settings
Cookies settings