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Analysis

What’s wrong with Telegram?

Telegram is a growing digital platform that is being used in the region and around the world. Yet, out of all major social media companies, it remains the least transparent in its content moderation and curation practices. The platform makes vocal commitments to protecting user privacy but practice shows otherwise.

Russia and Ukraine share few things in common when it comes to their respective social media environments. Following the start of the full-scale invasion, Russia banned the use of Meta’s platforms – Instagram and Facebook – in addition to the wholesale blocking of various domestic and foreign media outlets. Ukraine, for its part, blocked the Russian social network Vkontakte long before the invasion.

September 17, 2024 - Maksym Popovych

The shift to cyber power

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has involved the most extensive use of offensive cyber operations by one state against another in history. It is now obvious that blurring the lines between competition, crisis and war in cyberspace requires continuity in cyber defence. As a result, national cybersecurity must be one of the state's top priorities in terms of policy focus and budget allocation.

Forces that influence the world order are constantly evolving, and therefore, the global security landscape has become even more dynamic. For decades, the power dynamics of global balance were different to those today. Those with an economic advantage had the upper hand and dictated the rules to the rest of the world. Soon after, the emphasis moved towards military might, particularly during the Cold War. Of course, the economy is also the backbone here, as the development of weapons requires a strong and stable economy.

September 17, 2024 - Tatia Mosidze

Economic frontlines: bracing for a possible Trump return

November could see former US President Donald Trump return to the White House. His rather unpredictable approach to foreign policy could subsequently leave an even greater impact on the world than it did in his first term. This is due to various new conflicts like Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with both Kyiv and Moscow preparing for Trump’s potential victory.

Over the last month, Democratic nominee Kamala Harris has upended the presidential race in the United States by opening a small lead over Donald Trump in national polls. However, historical experience suggests early leads are often overturned and the upcoming presidential debates may prove decisive. With Trump still very much in the race, policymakers in Russia and Ukraine are bracing for what could be a seismic shift in US foreign policy.

September 17, 2024 - Cassia Scott-Jones

Teachers, de-Ukrainianization and agitprop in Ukraine’s occupied territory

While Ukrainian society generally acknowledges the forthcoming difficulties related to the reintegration of the generation having grown up under Russian occupation, there is little research which explicitly focuses on schooling in these areas. Early in 2022, we interviewed university students and experts under condition of anonymity who had experience in the educational systems of the Donetsk and Luhansk “people’s republics”. They provide valuable accounts of their memories of schooling and add insightful personal reflection and analysis.

Presuming a Ukrainian victory, when the Russian war against Ukraine comes to an end, Ukraine will face the daunting task of reintegrating the territories currently occupied by Russia. For Crimea and parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, this means undoing a decade’s damage on these regions’ economies, but especially on their social fabrics. Elsewhere, Moscow’s strategy has been to fast-forward the de-Ukrainianization of the occupied territories, epitomized by the vulgar slogan that “Kherson will be Russian forever.”

September 17, 2024 - Eugenia Kuznetsova Michael Gentile

Pivotal elections: Georgia goes all in

Georgians overwhelmingly support NATO and EU membership and deserve a government that aligns with their aspirations. The West requires reliable partners in the South Caucasus and access to critical checkpoints in connectivity and trade. The current decline in relations between Tbilisi and the West can only be seen as a victory for Russia and China. The elections in October 2024 will provide one last chance for the country and its democratic perspectives.

Georgia is a small country with unique geopolitical importance to Russia, China and the West. Its regional and international positioning is heavily determined by the role of connecting Europe and Asia through the Black Sea. In this light, Russia’s war in Ukraine has profoundly affected the shift in Georgia’s foreign trajectory and democratic backsliding.

September 17, 2024 - Nino Lezhava

EU referendum in Moldova. An easy target for Kremlin propagandists?

Moldova has been preparing not only for presidential elections this autumn, but also a nationwide referendum on the country’s European Union membership. Opponents of the pro-EU ruling party claim this tactic is illegal and will cause irreversible harm to the society. Moldova’s president, Maia Sandu, meanwhile is hoping to capitalize on Moldova’s EU path to help score a victory for her second term.

Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Moldova, another ex-Soviet country, has been described by several propagandists associated with the Kremlin as the next target of possible “liberation”. Moldova had been blamed by them for discriminating against and offending Russian speakers, even those from the left bank of the Dniester River, or Transnistria, the region now controlled by the Russian army.

September 17, 2024 - Mihail Nesteriuc

Between pro-Russian rhetoric and pragmatic cooperation with Ukraine

Between 30 and 40 per cent of Slovaks have positive feelings towards Russia, which makes Slovak society one of the most pro-Russian in Europe. And yet, pro-Russian Slovaks do not want to leave either NATO or the EU. This simultaneous support for Russia and western alliances is a phenomenon that demands a deeper look.

At this year’s NATO summit in Washington DC, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico sent, not for the first time, a radically pro-Russian message to his voters. In a video posted on Facebook he said that Ukraine’s NATO membership was unacceptable and “a guarantee of a third world war”.

September 17, 2024 - Jakub Łoginow

Russian aggression echoes Serbian aims regarding Kosovo

From the perspective of Kosovo, the aggression exerted by Russia against Ukraine is seen similarly as the acts committed by Serbia. The aim of both is territorial expansion. While Russia is trying to maintain its influence, Serbia aims to create what is called the “Serbian world”. Both call for greater autonomy for local citizens to justify their aggressive aims.

Kosovo and Serbia cannot agree on a sustainable political solution. The conflict between these two countries is deeply rooted and has not been resolved even after tense negotiations in Vienna in 2006-07. These negotiations produced a document known as the Ahtisaari Plan. Kosovo then declared its statehood in 2008 based on this agreement but Serbia did not accept it.

September 17, 2024 - Dorajet Imeri

A crisis for which nobody is prepared

A military intervention by Serbia into Kosovo would be the biggest upset to the political order in the Balkans since the Yugoslav Wars of the 1990s, with consequences that few have considered. Not only would such action do damage within Serbia, but neighbouring states and other powers could see similar repercussions as well. Even though such a scenario is not a certainty, these consequences must be considered.

The year 2008 is one that is singed into the mind of Serbs, both in Serbia and abroad. In February of that year, the Autonomous Province of Kosovo unilaterally declared independence from Serbia. To the outrage of Serbs across the world, a part of the country regarded as integral to the Serbian identity itself left with minimal resistance and effort being made by the Serbian government. Since then, the question of Kosovo remains one of the most important political issues both within Serbia and major nations involved in the political order of the Balkans.

September 17, 2024 - Stefan Mandic

Mapping scenarios for future Russia-Kazakhstan relations

The war in Ukraine has encouraged discussion on Russia’s wider designs for the region. This is particularly clear with regards to Kazakhstan, which is also home to a large Russian-speaking population. Various scenarios are possible regarding this pivotal Central Asian state.

September 6, 2024 - Harry Fennell Ignacio Hutin Mariam Bitchoshvili Zahar Hryniv

The changing narrative of Chinese foreign policy

The messaging found in Chinese foreign policy is used for specific purposes. For the most part, China is presenting itself as a positive alternative to western domination and a country interested in peace and stability. Under the surface, however, a closer examination reveals different intentions.

After decades of a focus on the West in global politics and the dominance of “Westsplaining” therein, the focus of the international community is now, for the first time since the end of the Cold War, visibly shifting towards the East. This shift is of course dictated by Russia’s unprovoked aggression against Ukraine and the immediate threat that it poses to the European Union and NATO. However, the eyes of free world’s public and policymakers are not stopping only at Russia’s borders. They look further, all the way to China.

June 22, 2024 - Konrad Szatters

Lessons about cyber warfare from Russia’s war against Ukraine

The war in Ukraine serves as a stark reminder of the diverging approaches to establishing red lines in the realm of cyber operations, accentuating the complexities inherent in establishing normative frameworks for governing cyberspace. The intersection of cyber warfare with traditional kinetic conflict further exacerbates the complexities of norm development, underlining the urgent need for sustained efforts to bridge gaps and address grey areas in international law.

In the contemporary landscape of warfare, the lines between traditional kinetic operations and cyber warfare are increasingly blurred. Last year alone, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) thwarted over 4,500 major cyber-attacks. Many of these cyber-attacks were coupled with scores of conventional missile strikes. This underlines the urgent need for international cooperation to confront cyber threats.

June 22, 2024 - Leon Hartwell Maria Branea

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