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Analysis

Ukraine after the war: lessons of resilience

Ukraine’s journey through war and into the complex terrain of post-conflict recovery is a testament to the enduring power of human resilience and institutional determination. The scars of war are undeniably deep, but they also carry with them the seeds of renewal. Ukraine now stands at a pivotal moment in its history – a chance to not just rebuild, but to reimagine its future as a resilient, democratic and adaptive nation.

Following the Russian invasion in February 2022, the wounds inflicted on Ukraine by the invading forces have become eternal. They have shaped the country in a way that has changed all aspects of life, including socio-economic issues alongside politics. The war has also provided valuable insights with regards to the strategies that should be utilized in order to overcome challenges and build a sustainable future. The strategies of adaptation that have emerged as a result of the current, slower period of the conflict demonstrate how these changes are taking place. 

February 28, 2025 - Roksolana Ivanova

The refrigerator and the television. Sanctions as war by other means

Sanctions are always a kind of double-edged sword. In order to be effective and prevent bypassing, they have to be comprehensive and include as many countries as possible. Changing elite behaviour depends on increasing the kind of pressure that pushes parties off the battlefield and to the negotiating table. Sanctions can therefore help to tip the balance.

Sanctions regimes aim to change elite behaviour by raising the costs and stakes of their choices, both directly in terms of diminishing their personal comfort including travel and access to finance, and indirectly by increasing popular pressure against their rule through economic hardship. This highlights one of several problems with sanctions. These elites are usually uninterested in popular welfare, explaining their attitude towards democracy and its wider benefits.

February 28, 2025 - Greg Mills Hryhoriy Nemyria Luis Ravina Ray Hartley

All for one and one for all against disinformation to protect democracy

Democratic politics has a key responsibility to prevent extreme societal polarization and divisive culture wars, which create fertile ground for malicious interference and deception. While Russia and China actively spread disinformation to undermine open societies, what should a European response to the deadly threat of disinformation look like?

February 28, 2025 - Anna Beitane Caroline Dufy Cécile Dolbeau-Bandin Stefano Braghiroli

How Moscow and its allies are undermining the non-proliferation regime

The Russo-Ukrainian War’s global repercussions increasingly subvert the foundations of the international nuclear order.

January 23, 2025 - Andreas Umland

Why Serbia is a country of contradictions

Serbia has become well known for its geopolitical position between East and West. Despite this, sharp divides also exist at every level of the country’s society. While Belgrade has eagerly embraced a neoliberal model, it still promotes its role as a defender of traditional values. The effects of such contradictions can be seen throughout Serbia.

Serbia is a country of contradictions. It is very close to the European Union, in fact almost in the centre of Europe, but at the same time it is very far from it. Serbian labour migrants have always chosen Western Europe as a destination for emigration, but the heart of the nation beats in the East, with a cultural and sentimental link to Russia. In Serbia, joining the EU is more a matter of national and social prestige – joining a club of rich and well-ordered countries – than a necessity. To the contrary, many of the rules laid down by the EU are seen as an obstacle and a hindrance to EU candidates.

November 21, 2024 - Christian Eccher

The myth of the Serbian-Russian friendship

The Serbian-Russian friendship is a politically constructed myth that emerged during the Milošević era but gained prominence after changes in Russia and the strengthening of Putin's position. Serbia, with its anti-NATO and anti-western sentiments that were caused mainly by the 1999 bombings and the activities of the Hague Tribunal, became a useful partner for Russia, opening a window for renewed influence in the region.

After reading a series on Serbian history of the 19th and early 20th centuries by Slobodan Jovanović, a highly esteemed Serbian historian, lawyer, philosopher, literary critic, diplomat and politician from the early 20th century, one might wonder why the myth of Serbian-Russian friendship appears so enduring in contemporary Serbian policy, culture and society. Indeed, Russia's historical presence was less significant than that of other European powers. The answer lies in the political construction of this historical friendship over recent decades. This myth serves both nations. For Russia, it helps maintain influence in the Balkans and counter EU presence, while for Serbia it supports its position in the ongoing Kosovo issue and reinforces illiberal policies.

November 21, 2024 - Natasza Styczyńska

Montenegro’s fight for EU membership amid Serbian revanchism

The small Balkan state of Montenegro has been an official European Union candidate for many years. In spite of widespread support for integration, the political situation in the country has made accession an increasingly unlikely prospect. This challenge is compounded by growing influence of Serbia’s autocratic regime, which poses an immediate threat to Montenegro’s EU aspirations.

In a recent article, the New York Times suggested that Russia poses the primary external threat to Montenegro’s aspirations to join the European Union. This narrative, while appealing to many western officials and pundits, is misleading. Russia certainly plays a disruptive role in Montenegro and the broader Balkans, but it is Serbia, under the increasingly autocratic regime of Aleksandar Vučić, which presents a far more immediate and significant challenge.

November 21, 2024 - Leon Hartwell

The low-hanging fruit of European integration: Moldova’s election and the power play of energy dependency

Nowhere is the choice between Europe and Moscow more evident than in Moldova’s energy sector. By promising cheap gas, Moscow offers pro-Russian actors a powerful campaign tool. This quick fix appeals to both the population and oligarchs. To break free from the Kremlin's grip and pursue a pro-European future, the stakes in these elections will have major repercussions on the energy sector.

October 18, 2024 - Jakub A. Bartoszewski Michael M. Richter

New ways to adapt. The economies of Belarus, Russia and Ukraine in the second quarter

Data from the first half of 2024 shows that all three countries affected by the war continue to show GDP growth and relative internal stability. However, Belarus, Russia and Ukraine continue to seek new ways to strengthen their economic positions.

October 8, 2024 - Kacper Wańczyk

The impact of western sanctions on Belarus

The targeted sanctions imposed on Belarus in 2022 did not take long to deliver a powerful blow to the nation's economy. The immediate aftermath was characterized by a sharp contraction, marking the onset of what economists have termed a “transformational recession”. Yet, the Lukashenka regime, bolstered by its close ties with Russia and its tight grip on domestic power structures, has so far weathered the storm.

September 20, 2024 - Hanna Vasilevich

What’s wrong with Telegram?

Telegram is a growing digital platform that is being used in the region and around the world. Yet, out of all major social media companies, it remains the least transparent in its content moderation and curation practices. The platform makes vocal commitments to protecting user privacy but practice shows otherwise.

Russia and Ukraine share few things in common when it comes to their respective social media environments. Following the start of the full-scale invasion, Russia banned the use of Meta’s platforms – Instagram and Facebook – in addition to the wholesale blocking of various domestic and foreign media outlets. Ukraine, for its part, blocked the Russian social network Vkontakte long before the invasion.

September 17, 2024 - Maksym Popovych

The shift to cyber power

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has involved the most extensive use of offensive cyber operations by one state against another in history. It is now obvious that blurring the lines between competition, crisis and war in cyberspace requires continuity in cyber defence. As a result, national cybersecurity must be one of the state's top priorities in terms of policy focus and budget allocation.

Forces that influence the world order are constantly evolving, and therefore, the global security landscape has become even more dynamic. For decades, the power dynamics of global balance were different to those today. Those with an economic advantage had the upper hand and dictated the rules to the rest of the world. Soon after, the emphasis moved towards military might, particularly during the Cold War. Of course, the economy is also the backbone here, as the development of weapons requires a strong and stable economy.

September 17, 2024 - Tatia Mosidze

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