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Analysis

The Russian ontology

The language used in literature and public discourse is not just a mirror of society, it is part of its very structure. By the tracing historical frequencies of certain key words and expressions in Russian texts, we can uncover patterns that reflect the deeper cultural, ideological and psychological shifts in Russian society. What do these linguistic trends reveal about Russia’s past, present and possible future?

Quantitative, artificial intelligence-based methods can be fruitful also in the humanities. In order to conduct research, one needs, though, an a priori formulated theory, what is in AI research referred to as an ontology, in order to know what to search for. It does not mean that AI research in any field is limited to a priori formulated principles; it usually yields results and formulates new concepts which go far beyond the theory formulated in the first place.

July 8, 2025 - David Hallbeck

Resisting foreign interference: Poland’s presidential election and the Russian challenge

During the months leading up to the June 1st presidential run-off in Poland, the government in Warsaw repeatedly warned of Russian disinformation and interference. But as the dust settled after the vote, a different picture began to emerge. Did Poland really face the threat it claimed – and has it passed the test?

June 10, 2025 - Agata Pyka

Ending the OHR’s “Bonn Powers” to save Bosnia and Herzegovina (again)

The complex legal setup governing Bosnia and Herzegovina now appears to be in need of an update. While the system has brought stability to a country still dealing with the legacy of war, it is now creating more problems that it is capable of solving.

May 30, 2025 - Ivan Pepic

Fire in a Macedonian nightclub. A tragedy forged in corruption

On March 16th in the small town of Kočani in North Macedonia, a massive fire erupted in a well-known nightclub, killing 59 and injuring 196 young people. Soon it became clear that the fire at the club was a disaster waiting to happen. The nightclub had a forged licence and there were no alarms, no sprinklers, and no emergency exits – it was a death trap that had been allowed to exist. The deadly fire became not only a national tragedy, mourned by the whole of Macedonian society, but a rallying point for answers, similar to what is happening next door in Serbia.

The fire at the Pulse nightclub in the city of Kočani in North Macedonia did not begin with a spark. It began long before, in the quiet exchanges of power and with the ink of fraudulent permits. It began in the silence of bribed officials and the indifference of those who were meant to be protected. It was nurtured by a system where sometimes backroom deals carry more weight than laws, where safety can be just an afterthought, and where lives are measured against profit. On the night of March 16th 2025, the lives of 59 young people were swallowed by the flames of this corruption that had been growing for years.

May 5, 2025 - Jovan Gjorgovski

With US support gone, Belarusian democratic organizations struggle to survive

US funds have suddenly vanished for exiled Belarusian civil society groups, throwing them into a fight for survival. Youth initiatives, media outlets and human rights defenders are cutting down on their staff and programmes, creating dangerous gaps that state propaganda is now rushing to fill. Belarusian activists show stubborn determination in the face of this financial earthquake, but without new support, the democratic resistance to Lukashenka's regime stands on increasingly shaky ground.

Belarusian civil society has always shown remarkable resilience under pressure. After the contested 2020 presidential elections and the wave of protests that followed, Alyaksandr Lukashenka's regime ramped up its crackdown on dissent. Independent media, human rights groups, cultural initiatives, and educational organizations faced brutal repression, with activists imprisoned, groups shut down, and many forced to flee. Today, most Belarusian civil society organizations and independent media groups operate from exile, primarily in Lithuania and Poland.

May 5, 2025 - Hleb Liapeika

Fico’s precarious balancing act in Slovakia

Slovakia’s prime minister, Robert Fico, is now in a precarious position. He cannot overly offend his country’s partners and Brussels as he depends on European funding. At the same time, he has promised his electorate a hard-line approach to Ukraine and a more confrontational approach to the West. As he floods the media space with misinformation to distract the society, he may find in the end that this balancing act is more difficult to maintain than he realizes.

Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has had a tough time balancing his efforts to keep his hold on power, all while grappling with contradictions in his policies: sending military assistance to Ukraine, despite campaigning on the promise to “not send another bullet”; travelling to Moscow to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin; keeping his nationalist coalition allies satisfied; and managing his pro-EU image in Brussels.

May 5, 2025 - Jakub Ferenčik

The 2024 Georgian elections and their geopolitical implications

In addition to the concept of the power vertical, Georgia now appears to be developing a Eurasian-style “comprador” system, characterized by the rise of powerful tycoons who dominate political and economic life – similar to what happened in Russia between 1996 and 2000. In Georgia’s current case, three influential figures have emerged who are shaping the national political landscape and shifting the country’s geopolitical priorities.

After the October 26th 2024 parliamentary elections, which ended with the victory of the Georgian Dream party following rigged results, the landscape inside the ruling party and the newly elected parliament began to reveal a new orientation for the country’s foreign policy. This has resulted in a drastic turn from a Euro-Atlantic bent towards a Eurasian direction. The election process itself was evaluated by such international organizations as the OSCE, which published its final report on December 20th 2024. The document sharply criticized the elections process, emphasizing undemocratic governance during the election and the counting process.

May 5, 2025 - Vakhtang Maisaia

The digital Trojan Horse in Romania’s elections

As the 2024 Romanian presidential election has illustrated, traditional electioneering is no longer the only factor influencing voter behaviour. Instead, algorithmic manipulation, influencer-driven messaging and undisclosed funding networks have emerged as essential tools in modern hybrid warfare.

March 11, 2025 - Tinatin Lolomadze

Seeing the present in the past: Byzantium and the Balkans

The legacy of the Byzantine Empire in the Balkans stretches back for centuries. Today’s politics should remember that the idea of Balkan states as homogenous entities is not natural. This is a relatively new idea that was realized through violence, population exchanges and expulsion at the turn of the 20th century. This process then continued well into the 1990s with the Yugoslav Wars.

The Byzantine Empire is the medieval successor to the ancient Roman Empire. Its origins are traditionally traced back to the time when the Roman Empire began to re-position its centre of power towards the Eastern Mediterranean, adopted Constantinople as its capital, adopted Greek (rather than Latin) as its primary language, and Christianity as its official religion. This all roughly happened in the period between the years 300 and 400.  

February 28, 2025 - Mirela Ivanova

Serbia’s students deliver a significant blow to the regime

Serbia has been witnessing the largest protests ever in its history in response to the tragic collapse of the main railway station’s roof in Novi Sad. The government’s response has not been sufficient to meet the protesters’ demands, as they continue to blockade universities and major roads. How long either side can maintain its position, however, remains to be seen.

University blockades and protests have been rattling Serbia for the past two months. Dissatisfied citizens, mostly students, are demanding accountability from the government for the tragedy in Novi Sad, which claimed 15 lives and left two others seriously injured. For the first time, the ruling party is facing immense public pressure. However, aside from the populist measures, threats and intimidation, it has offered no meaningful response to appease the masses calling for justice. 

February 28, 2025 - Filip Mirilović

Azerbaijan’s foray into “anti-colonial” advocacy

Over the past year, Azerbaijan has increasingly cast itself as a liberating force for the overseas territories under French control. What can Azerbaijan gain from leading the charge against “French colonialism in Mayotte”, an island that could hardly be further from its territory?

Relations between France and Azerbaijan have soured dramatically, with a recent series of diplomatic escalations culminating in several controversial conferences organized by Baku. The conference on the “illegal French occupation of the island of Mayotte” is not the first conference they have organized that is dedicated to the subject of the French Overseas Departments and Regions. As early as May 2024, the Milli Majlis, the Azerbaijan National Assembly, hosted a conference entitled “French Polynesia’s Right to Decolonization: Problems and Prospects”.

February 28, 2025 - Svenja Petersen

Is Georgia experiencing its own Belarus moment?

Georgia is currently experiencing one of the most significant waves of protests in its recent history. The intensity of the protests, the high stakes involved and the repression by the authorities evoke comparisons to the 2020 protests in Belarus. However, how similar are these protests, and what can be said about the responses from the Georgian authorities, the European Union and other international actors?

The recent protests in Georgia have seen widespread mobilization across the country, with demonstrators employing various tactics to express their discontent with the government's decision to suspend accession talks with the European Union. In Tbilisi, the capital, tens of thousands of protesters have gathered for consecutive nights, waving Georgian and EU flags while chanting slogans like "Russian slaves" at law enforcement officers.

February 28, 2025 - Giselle Bosse Wicke van den Broek

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