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Analysis

The Five Towers of the Kremlin

The Russian system of governance is known for its vertical power structure, with Vladimir Putin at the top balancing all other interests. However, since the mutiny led by Yevgeny Prigozhin in June 2023, some cracks are starting to show in the system. Understanding its current configuration can help us predict in which direction the system may head, as Putin tries to compensate for his state’s many failings at home and abroad.

There are many rumours regarding how contemporary Russia is being ruled and who is the “unknown puppet master” holding all the “strings”. Overall, the Russian political system is more akin to the Byzantine model of governance than the Roman one, and is prone to instability and conflict. The recent mutiny by the Wagner Group, a private military company led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, is a sign that the system is breaking down.

September 11, 2023 - Vakhtang Maisaia

The weaponisation of music in today’s Russia

Popular music has become an important propaganda tool to rally Russians in support of the war against Ukraine. An analysis of the ten most popular songs created during the war demonstrates common themes which have emerged, including patriotism, nationalism, religion and feelings for the motherland.

Music is the art most intimately connected to time. Indeed, it serves as a time machine for the transmission of culture, collective memory, concepts, mental states and feelings. But music has other purposes as well. It has a long history of being used as a strong tool for soft power. The Voice of America radio channel in communist countries was a striking example of this. Additionally, artists have utilised it as a form of protest. For example, the Polish rock group "Tilt" found in music the only way to express its rebellion against the communist regime in the 1980s.

September 11, 2023 - Tatevik Hovhannisyan

Slovaks seek a sense of normalcy

In the autumn of 2023 Slovaks will elect a new parliament in an early election. Since March 2023, Smer, the party of former Prime Minister Robert Fico, has been leading opinion polls and is expected to win the election. What would Fico’s return mean for Slovakia, the region and the rest of Europe?

There was a time when you almost never heard talk of emigration in Slovakia. Just before the pandemic hit, discussion about the big return of Slovaks who had left in the 1990s was still the topic of the day. Not in the summer of 2023. Nowadays, people buying flight tickets for their foreign holidays would more often than not utter the running joke that perhaps they should only take the one-way fare.

September 11, 2023 - Michaela Terenzani

A regional player?

Following the elections in April 2022, the new Slovenian government has displayed ambitions to make the country an active regional player and an intermediary between the Western Balkan states and Central Europe. However, the geopolitics of the wider region, including Russia’s war in Ukraine, may force it to face some uncomfortable trends.

In the Balkans July and August are always the peak tourist season, with flocks of North European vacationers coming here to enjoy the beauty of the Adriatic coast and the warm Mediterranean sun. Traditionally, their preferred destination is Croatia, with its stunning Dalmatian beaches, beautiful Istria, numerous islands and national parks. Neighbouring from the north Slovenia is less popular. It is more often used as a transit country for travellers who are en route to Croatia.

September 11, 2023 - Nikodem Szczygłowski

Particularities of contemporary Russian society can be traced both to history and Russia’s oral culture

Russia’s political and social behaviour can seem surprising. It is like there always is, despite a relatively highly educated population and access to western, liberal ideas, a return to archaic, paternalistic, antagonistic and violent structures and behaviours. Can this be due to a combination of traditional family structures, late development of literacy, and relative isolation, rendered possible by a certain economic and political autarchy? Were the changes of the early 1990s illusory, carried by groups and people whose influence was only accidental and now the old structures return?

July 20, 2023 - David Hallbeck

What lessons can be learned in the fog of war?

The subject material from which we draw lessons is often ambiguous. Were the operational failures that Russia experienced in the spring of 2022 the result of incompetence? Or were they perversely the result of Russia holding back the use of force out of the mistaken belief that conquest against cities like Kyiv and Kharkiv would be easy? Lessons can go in different directions even if we are all looking at the same thing.

July 10, 2023 - Alexander Lanoszka

The dream of sanctions stopping wars

Despite various sanctions put in place against Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, the Russian economy is surprisingly doing much better than expected. It appears for now that at least in the short term, the Russian economy is able to bypass sanctions as long as other countries are willing to pursue business as usual with Russia. Whether or not the sanctions will have a longer-term effect and have any impact on Russian aggression remains to be seen.

When western countries adopted sanctions against Russia in response to Putin's war of aggression against Ukraine, western politicians promised nothing less than the complete breakdown of the Russian economy. The French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire spoke of the “collapse” of the Russian economy, while US President Joe Biden said that “We will keep raising the economic cost and ratchet up the pain for [Vladimir] Putin and further increase Russia's economic isolation.”

July 4, 2023 - Svenja Petersen

From workers to refugees to workers again. What’s next for Ukrainians in the EU?

Europe’s active response to the millions of Ukrainian refugees who fled Russia’s invasion has often been viewed as a positive approach to migration policy. Despite this, the future remains uncertain for these new residents. Government decisions across the continent will now play a role in deciding not just the economic future of the EU but Ukraine itself.

Russia’s decision to launch a full-scale war in Ukraine has resulted in millions of Ukrainians fleeing the country via its western border. According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), as of April 2023, 8,174,189 people have been recorded as refugees from Ukraine across Europe. Exactly 5,044,039 of them registered for temporary protection schemes in Europe.

July 4, 2023 - Lesia Dubenko

Can North Macedonia survive another painful sacrifice?

Five years ago, North Macedonia and Greece signed the ground-breaking Prespa Agreement, paving the way for North Macedonia's accession to NATO and the European Union. However, the provisions of the agreement proved to be difficult for the Macedonians to accept. Now, Bulgaria has erected new barriers by vetoing North Macedonia's progress towards EU membership unless it agrees to Bulgaria's equally challenging prerequisites, further adding to the Macedonians’ hardships.

Five years have passed since the signing of the Prespa Agreement between North Macedonia and Greece. It was, and still is an agreement that left no one indifferent, Macedonian or Greek alike, and the consequences, both positive and negative, are felt to this day. The agreement was praised throughout the world as a visionary, modern and progressive way to solve the name issue, which plagued bilateral relations between the two countries for almost three decades.

July 4, 2023 - Jovan Gjorgovski

How Fidesz’s irredentism strains neighbourly relations

For years, Hungary’s Fidesz government under Viktor Orbán has employed historical revisionism and irredentist symbols in domestic politics. The notion of “Greater Hungary” and grievances over the loss of territories due to the Treaty of Trianon, as well as referring to it as a national trauma, are central to this. While the strategy may help Orbán domestically, it negatively affects Hungary’s relationships with some neighbours.

“Greater Hungary”, also known as “Historic Hungary”, refers to the territory of the Kingdom of Hungary as part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire before the First World War. Today, the notion of Greater Hungary involves an irredentist political idea and refers to territories Hungary lost through the Paris Peace Treaty, in Hungary more commonly known as the 1920 Treaty of Trianon, which ended the First World War between the Allies and Hungary.

July 4, 2023 - Gabriela Greilinger

Behind the steppes: How Mongolia has responded to Russia’s war against Ukraine

As one of the only democracies in Central Asia, Mongolia remains a relatively small country surrounded by two geopolitical behemoths. Yet, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has shown Mongolia that nothing can be predicted and that it must be ready to face any situation. The support it provides to Buryats and others fleeing Russia indicates that it does not see eye-to-eye with Moscow’s aggression.

Former Mongolian President Tsakhiagiin Elbegdorj spoke out on September 23rd 2022 about Russia's invasion of Ukraine, calling on Vladimir Putin to end the war. Elbegdorj condemned the “killings” and “senseless destruction” caused by the conflict. His statement does not represent the official position of the Mongolian government, which is more restrained in its condemnation of Russia. However, the comments highlight the complexity of Mongolian-Russian relations and the conflicting voices within the country.

July 4, 2023 - Joseph Roche

Hostile narratives towards Ukraine in Central and Eastern Europe

Identifying, analysing and countering foreign information interference and manipulation is one of the biggest challenges that the West will face for the foreseeable future. While it may be considered late, a lot has been done in this field both at the EU and international level. However, as the results of recent IRI research show, the need for further action is still clear.

Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24th 2022, the International Republican Institute (IRI)’s Beacon Project has been conducting analyses of online media data from multiple Central and Eastern European countries in order to track aspects of key narratives that have the potential to erode support for Ukraine.

April 29, 2023 - Adam Lelonek

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