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The price of normalizing Russia

A ceasefire will not change the essence of the regime in Moscow. Only time will show if European leaders remain as resolute about not returning to business as usual as they are today. As economic uncertainty deepens globally, pragmatism may increasingly overshadow humanitarian concerns. Yet, if some form of post-war normalization in Europe’s relations with Russia is on the cards – and if international companies begin to lobby for it – it would be fair to insist on certain preconditions.

June 23, 2026 - Nina Rozhanovskaya - Hot TopicsIssue 4 2026Magazine

The new wave of Russian emigration triggered first by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine coincided with the 100th anniversary of the expulsion of the prominent members of the Russian intelligentsia by the Bolsheviks. Photo: Zuyeu Uladzimir / Shutterstock

Having read Autumn of the Patriarch by Gabriel García Márquez for my book club last month, I was struck, like probably many Russian readers, by how recognizable his fictional Latin American dictatorship looks to us today. I guess one could say, paraphrasing Leo Tolstoy, that all happy democracies are happy in their own way, but all unhappy autocracies are alike.

I will not go into detail about which paragraphs of the novel read like they have been written about Vladimir Putin’s Russia, or how striking it is to see February 23rd on one of the pages – the date that Márquez may have picked at random, but that to us is the day before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. But one important resemblance is that in the book, the ageing dictator and the entire nation are trapped in a never-ending time loop, and so is Russia it seems. And I fear that, while a ceasefire would finally bring some much-needed respite and a chance to recover for Ukraine, it may push Moscow deeper into the authoritarian consolidation cycle, if it is accompanied by a return to “business as usual” between Russia and the West.

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