Russia struggling for influence in the South Caucasus
The South Caucasus is no longer a peripheral space between larger powers, but an increasingly important corridor linking Europe with Central Asia and wider Eurasian networks. Yet as its strategic importance grows, the region is becoming the focus of a broader struggle between competing visions of order: one based on connectivity and diversification, and another rooted in dependency, constrained sovereignty, and buffer-zone politics.
June 23, 2026 -
Megi Benia
- 
AnalysisIssue 4 2026Magazine
.Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan welcomes NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte during the European Political Community summit in Yerevan, Armenia.
Photo: Cristi Dangeorge / Shutterstock
The South Caucasus is frequently described as a geopolitical space situated “between” larger powers, a formulation that reduces it to a passive object of external competition and obscures its enduring structural role within broader trans-regional dynamics. In reality, the region has long functioned as a strategic corridor linking Europe to the Caspian basin, Central Asia, and the wider Eurasian systems of exchange, energy transit, and political interaction. However, only under current geopolitical conditions is this role being operationalized in practice.
The post-2022 security environment, shaped by Russia’s war against Ukraine and the resulting push to diversify transportation routes, has reduced dependence on Russian-controlled infrastructure. It has also encouraged alternative energy corridors and elevated the functional importance of the South Caucasus, allowing its hidden transit potential to be more fully realized. This process, however, remains contested, as Russia simultaneously seeks to preserve and reconstruct a buffer zone along its periphery by exploiting internal vulnerabilities and constraining external alignment. The region thus emerges as a strategic environment defined by the tension between two competing logics: one that advances connectivity and diversification, and another that reproduces dependency and limits sovereignty.
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European Union, NATO, South Caucasus, West-Russia relations
