Trump’s dealmaking will not work with Putin. A ceasefire must come first

Ukrainian flag blowing in a snowstorm over downtown Kyiv in February 2026. Photo: Shutterstock

Trump’s second administration has met with Russian and Ukrainian counterparts over a dozen times since retaking the White House.

Public comments by President Trump and some of his negotiators have lowered the spirits of President Zelenskyy and his compatriots. They seem to not understand the reality in which much of the world sees the brutality of the ongoing Russian invasion. It is a reality in which Moscow is an aggressor that must end its attack against a neighbouring sovereign nation. President Trump has suggested that Ukraine should hold elections soon after the war — or even during it. At the same time, he appears untroubled by Putin’s more than 25 years in power in Russia.

Despite several high-stake meetings, the war is still far from being settled even though this is what Trump wants so badly. Therefore, the process looks less like a peace effort and more like a roller coaster, as Ukrainians fear the next statement that could distance them from peace even further.

The Alaska summit sent a troubling signal

When President Trump granted Russia’s autocratic leader Vladimir Putin an unprecedented bilateral summit in Alaska last summer, Ukrainians had reason to be alarmed.

It was the first face-to-face meeting between an American and Russian president in four years, since Joe Biden met Putin in Geneva in 2021. For Ukrainians, it sent a troubling signal as it took place on American soil and during the start of Trump’s second term, when Kyiv went out of its way to talk about a just and lasting peace. This meeting even took place without an invitation to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

The message to the world was clear: the “big guys”, Trump and Putin, would settle what the Kremlin still calls a “special military operation”. The outcome of the Alaska summit deepened anxieties in Europe. What was missing was the most basic test of Putin’s intentions: a demand for a ceasefire. In that sense, President Trump is actually the one who took Putin’s bait.

In March 2025, Ukraine accepted a US proposal for a 30-day ceasefire. However, Russia rejected this idea. For more than three years, the Kremlin has perfected the cynical cycle of proclaiming its readiness for peace while simultaneously striking Ukrainian cities and civilians.

Nevertheless, the Trump administration appears to believe in negotiations brokered by the real estate developer Steve Witkoff, who has travelled to Russia repeatedly since Trump’s reinauguration. To Ukrainians, this is baffling — and dangerous.

Why Russia benefits from delays, not peace

What exactly is being discussed? Russia launched its full-scale invasion in 2022 under false claims that Kyiv oppressed Russian-speaking Ukrainians. It has occupied swaths of Ukrainian territory, staged sham referendums, and declared people living there to be Russian. Putin’s “Plan A” remains the same: force the world, starting with Washington, to accept the results of this conquest as irreversible.

Russia definitely prefers the prolongation of the war as it continues its constant bombing of civilian objects and pressure on the frontlines. In fact, Moscow not only continues to push for more territory in eastern Ukraine but does so with great perseverance. Some analysts believe that the Kremlin is using time to consolidate control over eastern Ukraine, particularly the Donetsk region. Time shows that the only language Putin respects is force – not any goodwill gestures.

Russia has nothing constructive to offer the West. Putin is not about to attack NATO until he sees absolute chaos in Europe’s defences. His aim is to amass leverage; destabilize Ukraine, blocking its path to the EU and NATO; and undermine western unity. That leaves Trump with a stark choice: will he uphold his promise given before the 2024 election to provide Ukraine with weapons if Russia refuses to negotiate in good faith? Or will he allow Putin to tighten his grip while hoping diplomacy alone can end the war? Each time President Trump appears to move closer to understanding Zelenskyy’s position and Ukraine’s concerns, the Kremlin responds with new gestures or escalatory steps that shift the narrative and blur the distinction between aggressor and victim.

The so-called “energy ceasefire” that occurred recently illustrates this dynamic. Moscow sought to present itself as a reliable negotiating partner, creating the impression that it was honouring its commitments. In reality, the pause in large-scale strikes lasted only very briefly and appeared tactical rather than strategic. Russia temporarily reduced the intensity of attacks for several days, including during a period of severe cold in Kyiv. This time was used to regroup, reposition resources, and later resume strikes using drones and missiles. Such pauses risk being interpreted as gestures of goodwill, while in practice they may serve clear operational and political purposes.

Ukraine is ready to live free from Russia’s external interference once the war is settled. To achieve this, Kyiv has to be at the table together with the United States and Europe, demonstrating to Moscow that strength remains the most effective deterrent. For any deal with Putin to mean anything, it must start with a ceasefire. Without it, there is no peace — only war or surrender.

Vladyslav Faraponov is the president of the Kyiv-based Institute of American Studies and chief editor of The Gaze and UATV English.

peace talks, Russian foreign policy, Ukraine, US foreign policy