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When war becomes a national idea: Russia’s strategy towards Europe

If Russia is not stopped in Ukraine, it will double down on efforts to destabilize Europe and may again turn to armed aggression. The safest and cheapest option for NATO is to give Ukraine the financial and military support it needs to block Moscow’s imperial ambitions. Meanwhile, the unpunished genocide unfolding in the heart of Europe painfully exposes the weakness and cynicism of Europe’s legal and value-based order.

February 23, 2026 - Maria Domańska - Hot TopicsIssue 1-2 2026Magazine

Illustration by Andrzej Zaręba

Four years since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the question of Moscow’s possible next targets is being raised prominently among governments, expert circles, and societies. There is growing concern that Russia is preparing to attack a NATO member state in the coming years. Although the value of predicting Moscow’s next moves cannot be overstated, it is even more important to formulate our own strategy (European, NATO, EU) that answers one fundamental question: how can we actively shape the Kremlin’s calculations to avoid a catastrophic scenario? In other words, let us not ask what might happen, but what we want to happen and how can we shape the course of events. Discussions about Russian plans should therefore include the fundamental theme of European agency (empowerment) and active deterrence.

Russia’s war against Europe

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