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An alliance of creepy uncles

In a letter to the Belarusian dictator Alyaksandr Lukashenka, Donald Trump wrote that he and his wife were “praying for your health and well-being, as well as for further progress in pursuing our common goals on behalf of the people of the United States and Belarus”. Equally charming towards Trump, on the day of the release of political prisoners Lukashenka said: “our main task is to stand by Trump and help him in his mission to establish peace. He stopped seven wars and conflicts, or six”.

December 7, 2025 - Kacper Wańczyk - AnalysisIssue 6 2025Magazine

Illustration by Andrzej Zaręba

One recurring theme in the discussions around Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s policies is the question of rationality. Too often, rationality is assumed to mean acting like a western politician: avoiding extremes, showing restraint, and maintaining dignity – much like one would at a family wedding. This assumption, however, rests on a false dichotomy between the rationality of the West and the irrationality of the East.

The election of Donald Trump as the president of the United States exposed the weakness of this framing. Suddenly, the self-proclaimed “beacon of democracy” appeared to have abandoned rational politics. Within months, western commentators sought refuge in a convenient phrase – “transactional policy” – to rationalize the irrational. Yet even this explanation leaves certain decisions obscure. Among them is the recent rapprochement between Minsk and Washington DC: an unexpected gesture, like a card slipped under the door.

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