What determines whether a country supports Ukraine?

A house in the suburbs of Cambridge, United Kingdom, painted in the blue and yellow of the Ukrainian flag days after the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Photo: John Sutton / wikimedia.org

The mutual support shown for countries in need is the basis of world order, just as mutual support of citizens in a country is the basis of national social order. Ukraine, having become a victim of aggression, counted on the support of the entire world. However, the real situation looks different. Why do some citizens and their political leaders support Ukraine, while others refuse support or limit themselves to good wishes?

In 2022, Ukraine appealed to principles and values, but by the end of that year this argument had exhausted itself. It looks like world politics is based mainly on interests. Therefore, let us talk about 2025, when no one has any illusions about the importance of values.

Why do countries support Ukraine?

1. For the sake of their own security. The countries of Eastern, Central and Northern Europe know all about Russian aggression. They understand that after the fall of Ukraine, war will come to their land.
2. For the sake of preserving the world order based on rules, agreements and alliances. If all this no longer works, and if aggression remains unpunished, then there will be more aggression, and many countries will have to shed the blood of their own citizens.
3. For the sake of economic interest. Russian aggression undermines the stability of the global economy (grain markets, energy, logistics). Supporting Ukraine is an investment in the stability of trade routes and markets.
4. For the sake of moral authority and international image. Supporting Ukraine is a way for countries to assert their status as defenders of democracy, human rights and international law. It also increases their weight in global institutions.
5. But there is also a place for idealism. The entire human civilization is built on the archetype of the victory of the weak, and the bravery of truth triumphing over cruel force. This can be seen regarding the stories of David and Goliath, the three hundred Spartans, the rebels against the Galactic Empire in Star Wars or Dune, the hobbits against Sauron, Harry Potter against Voldemort, and so on.

Why do countries not support Ukraine?

1. Because they are poisoned by security. Many citizens believe that this is not their war, and that the war will not come to them (Russia will be satisfied with Ukraine and will not go further). They may also feel that they can hide from the issue while militarization takes money from their family budgets. Under these circumstances, some populists use the topic of war to mobilize their electorate to make support for Ukraine politically toxic.
2. Dependence on Russia. Some countries are still heavily dependent on Russian energy, markets, or investments. Being locked into their own geopolitical contexts, they fear economic losses more than the benefits of a Ukrainian victory. They want to maintain business as usual when this is actually impossible.
3. Because they fear the collapse of Russia. The defeat of Russia almost certainly means its collapse, and this is associated with unacceptable risks, such as the proliferation of nuclear weapons, a large-scale refugee crisis, radical Islamism, and the rise of China. The trap of Moscow-centrism, into which western analysts and policy makers fell, does not allow them to see good scenarios leading to sustainable peace and economic benefits.
4. Because Russian money, Russian propaganda, and the mistakes of Russian studies have been working effectively in the Kremlin’s favour for many years. There are also political elites who gravitate towards Moscow or feel a “traditional sympathy” for it because of shared cultural codes and Soviet nostalgia, but this is often supported by money at its heart.
5. Because the anti-colonial narrative does not work. Many countries that were colonies themselves and gained their independence through struggle do not understand that Ukraine is waging an anti-colonial struggle against an empire that wants to reconquer it. This is because Ukrainians are white, and because of anti-western (particularly anti-American) sentiment. In many cases, Russia is perceived as the descendant of the Soviet Union, which posed as an anti-colonial force, even though it was a brutal colonizer of its own colonies.

Thus, we can say in summary that support for Ukraine is based on a combination of rational pragmatism with moral values ​​and a long-term horizon of political thinking. At the same time, a lack of support is due to a short-term horizon of thinking, the pursuit of low-hanging fruit in domestic politics, as well as fears, dependencies, and traditional likes and dislikes that are long outdated and do not reflect international realities.

Valerii Pekar is a chairman of the board of the Decolonization NGO, the author of four books, an adjunct professor at the Kyiv-Mohyla Business School and Business School of the Ukrainian Catholic University, and a former member of the National Reform Council.

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international support, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Russian influence, Russian propaganda, Ukraine