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The EU-US policy divide over Belarus

As the Russia-Ukraine war grinds on with little movement towards President Donald Trump’s pledged “24-hour resolution”, other arenas have gained momentum in his second-term foreign policy. Amid this dynamic context, Minsk has recently surfaced as a new, previously untapped, yet demonstrably successful venue for his deal-making agenda – and a potential strategic lever in Washington’s efforts to shake up the war next door.

September 27, 2025 - Vitali Matyshau - AnalysisIssue 5 2025Magazine

Recently released from prison, the Belarusian opposition figure Siarhei Tsikhanouski and his wife Svetlana Tikhanouskaya arrive for a public gathering with the Belarusian diaspora on June 26th 2025 in Warsaw. His release, with others, was no coincidence – it emerged from behind-the-scenes coordination between Washington and Brussels, which was later relayed to Minsk and ultimately greenlit by Lukashenka himself. Photo: Omar Marques

Since Donald Trump’s return to the White House in January 2025 – as during his preceding election campaign – the Russia-Ukraine war has remained the centrepiece of American foreign policy. As NATO’s leading force, the United States has played (and continues to play) a central role in sustaining Kyiv’s morale and defence capacity, along with that of its European allies, providing a lifeline of both military and financial support for Ukraine’s resistance. Meanwhile, Belarus, Russia’s only European ally and the EU’s eastern neighbour, long regarded as solely Brussels’s responsibility, has reappeared on Washington’s radar. This has prompted Trump’s envoys and state department officials to travel to a country still listed on the department’s “do not travel” advisory.

 Competing (or complementing) agendas

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