Beyond nuclear gradualism: pathways for NATO to enhance deterrence
NATO faces an increasingly complex security environment, marked by Russia’s advanced missile capabilities and persistent coercive strategies. How can the Alliance adapt its deterrence posture, integrating both nuclear and conventional means, to remain credible and unified in an era of significant geopolitical flux and evolving strategic stability concepts?
September 26, 2025 -
Alessandro Leonardi
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AnalysisIssue 5 2025Magazine
NATO’s relevance depends on its capacity to maintain a credible and adaptive deterrence posture. This task has grown more complex due to the twin challenges of renewed Russian aggression and the potential for transatlantic political volatility. Russia’s expanding arsenal and demonstrated willingness to employ advanced missile systems in conflict increasingly test European security. The sustained and diverse nature of Russian missile attacks in Ukraine, involving dozens of unique missile models and significant daily launch rates, underscores the scale of this challenge. These systems, ranging from hypersonic weapons to new intermediate-range capabilities, present a multifaceted threat capable of placing a wide array of European targets at risk. This blurs the lines between conventional and strategic domains, and underpins Moscow’s coercive foreign policy objectives.
This evolving missile threat landscape was vividly illustrated by Russia’s deployment of the advanced “Oreshnik” intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) against Ukraine in November 2024. Furthermore, uncertainty regarding the future trajectory of the United States’ foreign policy and its commitment to European security – a period some have termed “the age of Trump” – could impact Alliance cohesion and the perceived credibility of its security guarantees.
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