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Is Latvia ready for war?

Riga has found itself at the centre of questions concerning NATO defence for many years. However, in recent years, these issues have increasingly moved beyond the abstract. Latvia must now prepare itself for a potential confrontation with Russian aggression while also ensuring the effectiveness of long-term alliance commitments.

On January 13th, as dusk settled over Riga, Artur Savelyev, an employee at Riga Airport, glanced out the window and caught sight of a drone in flight. He promptly contacted security, who quickly discovered it was neither an airport drone, nor was there any record of its ownership. What was even more concerning was that the airport radar had failed to detect it.

July 8, 2025 - Nasta Zakharevich - Hot TopicsIssue 4 2025Magazine

A military parade during Independence Day of Latvia in Riga. Photo: Ajstudio Photography / Shutterstock

 A few hours later, as state police officers patrolled the airport grounds, more drones appeared – again slipping past the radar. According to the director of the Civil Aviation Agency, this radar is actually not designed to identify drones. Months later, it is still unknown whether the state police found the drone operators.

Riga Airport lies just under 300 kilometres from the Russian border and recent years have brought a string of sabotage incidents across the country. In some of them Russian traces are found or Russian special services are suspected. The arson attack against the Museum of Occupation in Riga; the desecration of a monument in Džūkste; disruptions in the GPS system; Russian drones flying into Latvia; cyberattacks on business; other arson attempts – all serve as reminders of an environment where tension lingers. According to Latvian counterintelligence, the risks are only growing every year. It assumes that in 2025 we should not expect an attack by Russia on NATO countries, because its military is focused on the war against Ukraine. However, if that conflict freezes and NATO does not rearm, then an attack is quite possible in the next five years. Is Latvia ready for such a scenario?

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