Belarus after the war: at a crossroads
A possible truce in Russia’s war against Ukraine, resulting in what could be a frozen conflict, looks to be the best scenario for Alyaksandr Lukashenka. On the one hand, Russia would not completely shift away from its military focus, keeping a large army near the front line and preparing for possible future operations. On the other hand, a truce could help open the door to a partial lifting of western sanctions, many of which were imposed alongside Russia.
In late 2024, the potential return of Donald Trump was perceived by the Belarusian authorities as a window of opportunity for political bargaining with the West in the shadow of the start of possible peace talks over the Russo-Ukrainian War. In order to be as prepared as possible, the Belarusian leader Alyaksandr Lukashenka held his electoral campaign six months before the end of his 2020 presidential term, right on the verge of the inauguration of the new US president.
July 8, 2025 -
Pavlo Rad
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AnalysisIssue 4 2025Magazine
Despite all of Minsk’s manoeuvring, the truth is that Lukashenka has put himself in a situation where any scenario that may arise risks opening a Pandora’s box regarding the fate of both his regime and Belarus itself. Photo: Fortton / Shutterstock
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Alyaksandr Lukashenka, belarus, political prisoners, politics
