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Balancing values and interests. NATO’s constrained engagement in the South Caucasus

Considering the current turmoil in transatlantic affairs, NATO’s room for manoeuvre in the South Caucasus is constrained by broader geopolitical rivalries and its limited capacity to prioritize this region as well. Russia maintains a strong military and hybrid influence in the region, while Iran’s ambitions and China’s expanding economic footprint further limit western leverage.

It has been a while since the NATO Secretary General’s Special Representative position for the Caucasus and Central Asia became vacant. Since its establishment in 2004, it has served as the eyes and the ears of the Alliance, facilitating the implementation of NATO’s foreign policy, monitoring internal political developments and reforms, and liaising with local governments.

July 8, 2025 - Nino Lezhava - AnalysisIssue 4 2025Magazine

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte at the start of the 2025 NATO Summit in The Hague. Photo: NATO

Meanwhile, the regional geopolitical environment in the wider Black Sea region has harshly evolved. The Partnership for Peace (PfP) member states in the South Caucasus diverged from their established trajectories in favour of transitional, multi-vector policies in light of the recalibration of transatlantic relations. While answers regarding security guarantees, this time for the entire European continent, are still pending, NATO urgently requires a reassessment of its strategies and adjustment to the new reality. Re-examining its policy towards the South Caucasus should also be a part of this process. 

Strategic importance

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