Most pro-democracy operations were shut down in conflict-affected areas due to the Trump cuts – here’s why that was a grave mistake

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When Donald Trump first entered office in 2017, many questioned whether the United States would continue to promote democracy. Throughout his first term, this was indeed deprioritized – but it was not eliminated, as mainstream conservatives kept the president in check. In the first months of his second term, however, isolationism appears to be the main force shaping an increasingly transactional US foreign policy.

This shift is a global emergency, as support for democracy remains not only an essential moral imperative but also a strategic priority for those who seek a more stable and prosperous world. To understand why, let us look at the aggression carried out in recent years by authoritarian Azerbaijan against democratic Armenia in the South Caucasus.

That aggression had been going on intermittently for several years. Its climax came in September 2023 with an Azerbaijani attack on the disputed enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh, as well as the ethnic cleansing of its 140,000 ethnic Armenians. Armenia consequently became one of the top five refugee-hosting countries in the world by proportion of population, with nearly nine per cent of its residents being refugees (mainly from Nagorno-Karabakh). Moreover, as a result of the collapse of the enclave’s autonomous government, Freedom House, a pro-democracy NGO whose Armenia programming I headed at the time, downgraded Nagorno-Karabakh’s status from “Partly Free” to “Not Free” – reflecting its incorporation into fully authoritarian Azerbaijan.

The international community, including the Biden administration, failed to meaningfully act, and the tragedy remains a grim reminder of what happens when democratic development and accountability mechanisms are neglected in geopolitically sensitive areas.

Yet this outcome was predictable for those of us who had been studying developments in Azerbaijan more closely. Azerbaijan’s campaign against Nagorno-Karabakh paralleled intensifying domestic repression, including an ever harsher crackdown on journalists and civil society. This occurred against the broader backdrop of the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, which reportedly adopted some of the same military strategies used by Azerbaijan in an earlier war against the Armenians in 2020. The absence of meaningful consequences for Azerbaijan’s use of force then may have indirectly emboldened others, contributing to a broader erosion of international norms.

Moreover, permissiveness toward Azerbaijan’s authoritarianism impacted neighbouring countries. Georgia, once seen as a democratic success story, has experienced growing democratic backsliding. The Georgian Dream party’s distancing from democratic norms has repeatedly received the support of Ilham Aliyev. This reflects a calamitous dynamic: when autocrats in one country face no consequences, their entire region can suffer.

The 2020 war in Nagorno-Karabakh erupted during President Trump’s first term. Despite the administration’s attempt to broker a ceasefire, the agreement reached broke down quickly. The failure of the so-called “Minsk Group” (the US, France and Russia) to prevent continued conflict underscored the difficulty of navigating protracted disputes without meaningful international engagement. While the group represented a form of international involvement, it lacked cohesion, political will and enforcement capacity. As a result, the Minsk Group format ultimately proved ineffective and has since largely collapsed.

The evidence from Russia, Azerbaijan and other authoritarian states suggests that peace is far less likely where democracy recedes. And there is a reason for this: democratic institutions help prevent conflict by fostering transparency, accountability and public participation. Populations in most places rarely want to go to war. While democratic development must come from within, it often requires strong and sustained support from like-minded actors.

The same is true of efforts to maintain or restore peace, especially in regions dominated by authoritarian regimes. International engagement is critical as the populations of these states are generally not a factor, or are manipulated by the authoritarian control of local media.

Here, too, the South Caucasus case is instructive. Following the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war, Armenia and Azerbaijan entered intermittent negotiations aimed at reaching a peace agreement. Those talks have repeatedly faltered, but in recent weeks both sides announced that they have reached an agreed text of a peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan. This presents a historic opportunity to end decades of conflict and chart a new course for the region. Yet Azerbaijan has imposed new preconditions and is stoking further instability.

The international community must not stand by. The United States and the European Union should exert diplomatic pressure on Baku to finalize and sign the treaty without further delay. Sustained peace will only be possible if the process is rooted in international norms, respect and accountability. Anything less risks enabling further authoritarian aggression and undermining the fragile democratic gains in Armenia and the region. The peace deal may subsequently end up being remembered as one more manipulation and the prelude to yet more aggression.

To many policymakers in Washington and Brussels, the South Caucasus may not appear as a vital strategic interest, and this perception contributes to recurring inaction. But the region presents a critical test case for peacebuilding through democratic support, and success here could set an example for other regions struggling with authoritarianism and conflict.

For a while, there was some reason for hope. In January 2025, under the Biden administration, Armenia and the US signed a Strategic Partnership Charter. Part of this document stated that the US should reaffirm its commitment to supporting democratic resilience – not only in Armenia but in the broader region. Supporting democratic development, delivering humanitarian aid, and strengthening civil society offer the region a chance at something long denied: lasting peace, dignity and human rights.

This is why it is such a tragedy that the United States now seems headed in the opposite direction. As but one example of this abdication, USAID has been eviscerated, which has led to Freedom House and other American democracy-building operations being shuttered.

And this is not only an American failure. The EU High Representative Kaja Kallas has emphasized that sustainable peace requires justice and accountability. However, European actors must go beyond statements of concern and genuinely invest in the institutions that uphold democracy.

The US and EU should not treat democracy as a secondary issue. They must champion it as the surest path to peace. Nagorno-Karabakh’s fall is not just a humanitarian tragedy but a warning. Without democratic values at the centre of international engagement, peace will remain elusive.

Andranik Shirinyan is a law and international relations specialist from Armenia. He served as the Armenia Country Representative at Freedom House from 2021 to 2025.

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Armenia, democratic resilience, Donald Trump, human rights, humanitarian crisis, NGOs, South Caucasus, US foreign policy