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Will Trump’s peace-making efforts increase the likelihood of a bigger war?

While the US tries to present itself as an honest broker engaged in shuttle diplomacy, it is difficult not to perceive its efforts as favouring the Russian side. Even before negotiations with Russia had started, the US defence secretary, Pete Hegseth, said Ukraine’s NATO membership and the possibility of recapturing territories occupied by Russia were off limits.

After two months of botched peace-making efforts, the administration of Donald Trump has made little progress in bringing the war in Ukraine closer to an end. Simultaneously, the new US government has sought to disengage from Europe and exposed its weakness. If Trump decides to put pressure on Ukraine to end the war on terms that favour Russia, it will make a bigger war in Europe practically inevitable.

May 6, 2025 - Yulia Kazdobina - Hot TopicsIssue 3 2025Magazine

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with US President Donald Trump in the Oval Office on February 28th 2025. The entire world watched as Trump and Vice President JD Vance publicly humiliated Zelenskyy and accused him of not being grateful for the American support. Photo: (CC) White House (https://www.whitehouse.gov/gallery/president-trump-hosts-president-of-ukraine-volodymyr-zelenskyy/)

Frustrated with the “too little too late” approach of the Biden administration, many Ukrainians pinned their hopes on Donald Trump’s return to the White House, believing it could bring an end to Russia’s war of aggression through the “peace through strength” approach. Initially, this hope seemed vindicated when Trump threatened to impose “high levels” of sanctions and tariffs on Russian imports if Putin failed to reach a settlement with Ukraine. While speaking to the World Economic Forum in Davos on January 2025, Trump also said he would ask OPEC to lower the price of oil to strip Russia of its oil revenues. White House policy, however, then took an extremely sharp turn.

Dramatic change

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