American-Russian rapprochement as a threat to Europe

Graphic by Rokas Tenys / Shutterstock

In addition to the destruction of the world order as a result of the implementation of long-term trends discussed in my previous article, the news of recent weeks may cause shock with another unpleasant conclusion for Europe. The new American administration has not only sharply reversed US policy towards Europe (as well as Canada and Australia), but has also initiated a rapprochement with Russia. It looks like the new American leaders have some special feelings towards Moscow.

This reversal may seem illogical, which is why media are publishing articles claiming that Trump was compromised by Russia. This is a typical attempt to find a simple answer to complex questions that is suitable for tabloids. It is reasonable to apply the principle that one should not explain with a conspiracy theory what can be explained by objective long-term trends. Anyway, as Goethe said, “…misunderstandings and laziness perhaps cause more errors in the world than cunning and malice.”

Analyzing long-term trends, we will see many reasons for the US-Russian rapprochement, which should make Europeans worry, because, after all, such a shift will occur at the expense of Europe.

1. Every American administration, starting with President George W. Bush, has tried to reboot relations with Russia. These attempts were never successful, and relations have only gotten worse. But each successive US president believes that he is the one who will succeed, because he is the best negotiator.

2. Trump’s administration desires to repeat President Richard Nixon’s success in breaking the connection between Russia and China, only now in the reverse. Nixon managed to tear China away from the USSR, but this was at a time when Soviet-Chinese relations were deteriorating. Today, China is heavily integrated into Russian affairs and largely controls Moscow, so the desire is futile.

3. The transactional approach to international politics attracts the American administration with Russia’s vast natural resources, which can be used to make profitable deals. Putin, knowing this, constantly hints at the prospects of such deals.

4. The old world order has been broken, and the United States is actively breaking it, although it previously tried to preserve it. Russia looks like a country that has become a battering ram for the destruction of the old world order. In other words, the interests of two countries coincide here (even three, because China is also interested). If it is possible to end the war with benefits for Russia, the United States will be able to launch similar operations in Greenland or elsewhere.

5. There is another area where the interests of the United States, Russia and China coincide. This is namely the weakening of Europe and its separation from America (for China, this has generally been one of its main foreign policy goals, unattainable for decades). None of these centres of power is interested in seeing Europe remain as a centre of power. This is because in the “new world without order” they are all fighting for supremacy.

6. To many Americans, Russia seems like a defender of traditional values ​​in a postmodern world, a true conservative Christian country that stands up to the postmodern agenda they hate. Obviously, mass murder, rape, looting, tortures, kidnapping and other crimes stemming from aggression are not Christian values, but these details are not essential to many. After all, if the US president expresses support for an international criminal, then maybe he is not such a criminal? You can read more about the role of the Russian Orthodox Church in the aggression here.

7. Americans and Russians feel that their countries are similar in some ways. Vast expanses of land, conquered by brave pioneers and cleared of “unwanted natives”, and so on. Americans do not like empires, but they do not consider Russia an empire because they know almost nothing about it. Americans have little idea of ​​the multinational, multicultural and multi-confessional imperial nature of Russian statehood.

8. Americans love it when David defeats Goliath. What is surprising is that many of them consider Russia to be David, the weak but blessed bearer of the truth. As a result, NATO is naturally considered to be Goliath, a stupid and heavy force. This is where the talk about the Russian invasion being provoked by NATO expansion to the East comes from. Ukraine is simply absent as a country in this picture.

9. Also, for some Americans, Ukraine is a rebellious province that needs to be returned “back home” to Russia. They compare the Russian-Ukrainian war to the Civil War in the United States, where good northerners must defeat bad southerners and finally restore order on their lands.

9. There are almost no people in the new American administration who really know anything about Russia or Ukraine, and the traditional “think tanks” currently have much less influence. Russia has been investing in propaganda in America for decades, while Europe considered the US as a permanent and obvious ally which does not need explanation. Together with Russian money, Russian culture, fear of Russia and other features, this created the famous blind spot regarding the country.

10. Finally, you can add to these objective trends the personal sympathies of the two old leaders. I assume that Trump is jealous of Putin, who managed to destroy many hated institutions and concentrate power (although it took more than a decade).

You see, we are dealing with deep roots in this relationship. Most of the problems described above are shaped by long-term trends in American policy, and not by the personal preferences of the leader.

After all, similar trends existed before, and they explain the behaviour of the United States at the beginning of the First and Second World Wars, when Europe was bleeding and America was counting its profits. A detailed analysis of the historical parallels is beyond the scope of this article, but there are many publications on this subject.

Perhaps there is nothing wrong with the rapprochement between America and Russia? Unfortunately, this is not the case, because this rapprochement will occur at the expense of Europe. This will likely happen in the following way:

• The United States will invest significantly less in European security (a recent Pentagon memo confirms this).
• In return, Russia will increasingly interfere in European affairs.
• Both countries will be interested in Europe as a market in the long term, but not as an independent power.

What should Europe do in these new, shocking circumstances? First, it needs to strengthen its own defence capabilities. Ukraine, with its large, trained army and the ability to wage modern, high-tech warfare, can play a key role in this regard.

Second, European politicians, diplomats and analysts have to explain to their American colleagues that US hopes for Russia are futile and will not lead to any positive consequences, just as they have in the past. At the same time, they need to stress that Europe has always been a reliable ally. Russia is a brutal force, far from its supposed Christian foundations. It is the last colonial empire, extremely integrated politically and economically with China, with aggressive attitudes towards Europe. Understanding these realities will help adjust American policy in Europe.

Valerii Pekar is a chairman of the board of Decolonization NGO, the author of four books, an adjunct professor at the Kyiv-Mohyla Business School and Business School of the Ukrainian Catholic University, and a former member of the National Reform Council.

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Donald Trump, Russian invasion of Ukraine, US foreign policy, US-Russia relations