Poland is defending Europe from Russia’s hybrid war

Border between Poland and Belarus near Kuźnica. Photo: Karolis Kavolelis / Shutterstock

Situated on the vast European plain, Poland often fell prey to its larger neighbours’ territorial ambitions throughout history. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 all but confirmed to Poland that the place on the map it had long fought for cannot be taken for granted.

Donald Tusk, who returned as Poland’s prime minister in 2023, has acted swiftly to drive the western response to a renewed confrontation with Russia. On a visit to Poland’s 418 kilometre-long eastern frontier with Belarus, Tusk outlined the steps that Poland has been taking to protect the European Union from hybrid threats coming from the East.

In 2021, the Kremlin weaponized irregular migration flows to wage a deliberate act of aggression against the Central European nation. Polish soldiers and officers are being deployed on a daily basis as a result to safeguard their state’s boundaries. “We are not just dealing with illegal migration, but with state-led operations involving the regimes in Minsk and Moscow,” declared the Polish prime minister.

Tusk’s visit to the border comes as some in the EU question whether Russia poses a direct threat to their security. Pedro Sanchez, the Spanish prime minister, stated recently without hesitation that Russia will not. But for Poland and other Eastern Flank EU member states, Russia’s threat to Europe is clear and present.

What is the aim of Russia’s hybrid war on Poland? It is to undermine the support for Ukraine and thereby ultimately unravel the integrity of the European security order by sowing discord and division within the EU. So far, Russia’s malign efforts are proving to be effective.

Migration is a sensitive socio-political issue in Poland. A historical experience of foreign partitions and invasions has made Poland’s borders emotionally charged for many of its citizens. Russia has been adept at exploiting this in a cynical effort to decimate Poland’s societal and democratic cohesion.

In the Polish town of Zgorzelec close to the German border, hundreds of protestors gathered to demand an end to the deportations of migrants and asylum seekers from Germany to Poland. The organizer of the protest said that the demonstration on the Polish-German border took place with presidential elections looming in Poland and support for the country’s far-right party, Konfederacja, rising considerably in recent weeks.

Russia’s instrumentalization of migration is also harming Poland’s efforts to rebuild ties with the EU after eight years of disputes over the rule of law under the Law and Justice government.

Tusk has announced that Poland would no longer comply with the EU’s Dublin Regulation on the return of asylum seekers. At the European Council summit in Brussels last month, the Polish prime minister stated categorically that “we will not accept migrants from other countries.” The Commission issued a quick rebuke to Tusk’s statement with a reminder that “all member states are required to fully comply with current asylum rules.”

The renewed rift between Poland and the EU over migration benefits no one but Russia and its geostrategic interests. It serves as an unwelcome distraction from the need to maintain a united front at a moment of profound crisis for post-war Europe. European countries – including non-EU members such as the UK – have been scrambling to fill the security void left in the wake of the United States’ recent rhetoric under Donald Trump.

These cracks within the western alliance will only embolden the Kremlin to intensify its hybrid aggression – particularly as the US retreats from Europe and support for the far right continues to grow across the EU. In this new security situation, joint EU action is needed more than ever to bolster stability on the European continent.

Poland is already taking steps to fulfil its obligations as a country on the EU’s front line. To date, the Polish government has allocated 2.7 billion zloty (650 million euros) to border protection with the goal of creating a fully sealed border system. Poland has also positioned itself at the forefront of European resilience to Russian hybrid warfare as it continues to make investments in infrastructure and modern technology.

The EU has set out how it will ramp up its defence capabilities under the new Readiness 2030 white paper. The Commission’s proposal includes ways in which member states can make significant investments in defence, procure defence systems, and build up the European defence industry in the long term.

While these measures are essential, it is important that the EU takes action to deter Russia in the hybrid, as well as the conventional military, domain. Tusk’s proactive role in securing the EU’s eastern borders offers a strong starting point for comprehensive cooperation with Poland on Russian aggression.

Hugo Blewett-Mundy is an Associate Research Fellow at the EUROPEUM Institute for European Policy in Prague, specialising in Russia, Eastern Europe, and foreign policy. He also writes regularly about current European affairs. He holds a MA in Russian and Post-Soviet Politics at the UCL School of Slavonic and East European Studies.

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belarus, border, hybrid threats, migration, Poland, Poland-EU relations