Ukraine as ground zero for a new European security challenge

The Topol-M, a Russian produced intercontinental ballistic missile. Photo: Stanislav Kozlovskiy / wikimedia.org

The conflict in Ukraine, which began with Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, has evolved into a protracted war with far-reaching geopolitical implications. Looking towards 2025, the alliance between Russia, China, Iran and North Korea is not only strengthening its geopolitical clout but also posing a direct threat to both European security and regional stability. It forms a formidable challenge not just for Ukraine but for the European continent and the broader international order. As the conflict continues, it has become clear that Russia’s ambitions extend beyond its borders, seeking to reshape the geopolitical landscape in ways that could undermine Europe’s established security architecture.

January 2024 was marked by missile attacks on Ukraine’s largest cities, Kyiv and Kharkiv, resulting in at least 130 injuries and 18 fatalities. What really distinguished both these assaults was the diverse arsenal employed by Russia, which included missiles from North Korea, drones from Iran, and technology from China. The end of 2024 saw a significant missile strike on the Ukrainian city of Dnipro, utilizing a new “experimental” type of missile technology. This missile, referred to as “Oreshnik” by Russian President Vladimir Putin, is described as a medium-range ballistic missile equipped with a non-nuclear hypersonic warhead. It is capable of carrying multiple warheads to target multiple locations simultaneously. The missile’s advanced features, including its hypersonic speed and multiple warhead capability, make it a significant threat to existing missile defence systems. Its intermediate range means that it can also strike well beyond the territory of Ukraine.

For Europe, the development of Oreshnik is particularly alarming, as its range and precision mean that key parts of the continent – including critical infrastructure and military installations – could quickly become vulnerable if the conflict were to spill over. And, once again, the creation of “Oreshnik” was possible thanks to the collaboration with China, Iran and North Korea. Each country has played a distinct role in supporting Russia’s missile capabilities, either directly or indirectly.

Since the beginning of the conflict, Russia’s military capabilities have advanced significantly, with the country now producing approximately 330 drones each month. Furthermore, Russia is collaborating with Iran to establish a drone manufacturing facility on its territory, which is expected to enhance production further. In addition, North Korea has been supplying Russia with artillery shells, delivering approximately five million so far as Ukraine’s own stockpiles dwindle. China has also become Russia’s main economic partner, increasing its imports of Russian oil and gas while supplying a wide array of military technology. This partnership has allowed Russia to circumvent western sanctions and sustain its economic stability amid international isolation. In turn, Europe’s stability is directly impacted, as any bolstering of Russian capabilities along its eastern periphery raises the stakes for regional security.

Since 2022, the ties between Russia, China, Iran and North Korea have strengthened considerably as these nations aim to create an alternative to the existing global order. Despite their distinct ideologies and governance structures, their collective efforts pose a significant challenge to global world order as we know it. Recent news reports indicate that North Korean soldiers are undergoing training in Russia, with estimates suggesting that around 10,000 troops are joining Russian military operations in Ukraine. This only further complicates the geopolitical landscape. Their collective efforts now pose a significant challenge to Europe’s security and strategic autonomy, forcing European policymakers to re-examine their defence and diplomatic priorities.

Furthermore, the BRICS summit, which brought together leaders from various nations in the Global South, illustrates a significant shift towards multilateralism aimed at countering western, and more specifically US, dominance in global affairs. At this year’s summit, Russian President Vladimir Putin talked extensively about the creation of the BRICS banknote. However, he tempered earlier aggressive calls for de-dollarization by indicating that the goal of BRICS member nations is not to move away from the US dollar-dominated SWIFT platform. Instead, he emphasized the importance of deterring the “weaponization” of the US dollar by developing alternative systems for utilizing local currencies in financial transactions among BRICS countries and with their trading partners. For Europe, these moves could not only restructure global economic alliances but also put pressure on its own financial mechanisms, potentially undermining economic stability and integration with global markets.

Despite historical rivalries and existing tensions among the countries of the alliance, their shared resistance to western influence has fostered a partnership that has the potential to redefine existing global power structures. The proposed BRICS currency could enable these nations to assert their economic independence while competing with the current international financial system, which is largely dominated by the US dollar. After all, it accounts for about 90 per cent of all currency trading. Until recently, nearly 100 per cent of oil trading was conducted in US dollars. However, in 2023, approximately one-fifth of oil trades were reportedly made using other currencies. This collaboration extends well beyond military alliances; it includes robust economic and technological exchanges that could effectively undermine western strategies and initiatives.

Recent political developments in Washington have added another layer of complexity to this evolving landscape. The recent change in the US administration has signalled a potential recalibration of American foreign policy priorities. Some observers note that the new leadership is adopting a more nuanced stance toward Russia’s narrative on the war in Ukraine, a shift that many fear may lend an implicit legitimacy to Russia’s actions. This could thereby undermine longstanding western support for Ukraine.

In this new era marked by the unpredictability of hegemonic power dynamics, the rapidly deepening alliance among Russia, China, Iran and North Korea poses an even greater challenge. Their seamless cooperation and rapid technological advancements – exemplified by innovations like Oreshnik – are rapidly transforming them into a formidable counterweight to NATO. Analysts warn that if the United States decides to scale back its traditional commitments to European security, Europe could be left highly vulnerable to renewed conflict or even occupation as these adversarial powers seize the strategic opportunity.

Geopolitically, this emerging alliance poses formidable challenges – especially for Europe, whose security and stability have long been underpinned by a delicate balance of power in the region. The interdependence of these nations enables them to coordinate actions and responses, thereby complicating European defence planning and diplomatic initiatives on multiple fronts. As these countries pursue both individual and collective interests, the risk of spillover conflicts increases, potentially stretching Europe’s military resources and destabilizing neighbouring regions. Ukraine serves as a prime example of this alliance reshaping regional dynamics, with profound implications for European security.

The evolving relationships among Russia, China, Iran and North Korea signify a profound transformation in international relations, representing efforts that could directly undermine Europe’s longstanding security frameworks and institutional stability. Failing to address these developments would be a grave error for European leadership. This alliance is poised to alter both military and economic power balances in ways that could leave Europe increasingly exposed to instability.

The challenges posed by this evolving alliance should be confronted with a clear set of policy recommendations. European policymakers must adopt a comprehensive strategy that prioritizes diplomatic, economic and multilateral initiatives while also bolstering independent defence capabilities. The key to this approach is strengthening existing partnerships – such as NATO – while simultaneously developing new frameworks centred on economic and technological cooperation, ensuring that Europe’s sovereignty and strategic interests are proactively protected. In addition, Europe should invest in robust cyber capabilities and soft power initiatives to counter hybrid threats and secure regional stability.

Europe now stands at a critical juncture. With advanced systems like Oreshnik demonstrating that Russia and its allies are rapidly expanding their military capabilities, European security can no longer rely on outdated paradigms. The continent must rapidly modernize its armed forces and defence infrastructure by significantly increasing defence spending to support the development and acquisition of cutting-edge military technologies and integrated missile defence systems capable of neutralizing advanced threats. Strengthening NATO’s collective capabilities is imperative, as European nations need to deepen military cooperation; enhance force readiness through faster mobilization and streamlined command structures; and conduct comprehensive joint training exercises. A unified and robust military deterrence strategy must be established through improved intelligence sharing, the repositioning of critical military assets in vulnerable regions, and a resolute commitment to border defence.

Europe’s ability to maintain security in an era marked by heightened unpredictability and aggressive military posturing depends on its capacity to pivot from passive reliance on traditional measures to decisive, forceful military action, making immediate and unequivocal military reform an urgent necessity. Although Europe has traditionally thrived as an economy-driven union, the time has arrived now for it to step forward as a military power as well.

Maryna Venneri is a Ukrainian freelance writer and policy analyst specializing in Eastern European affairs and civil war studies. She is a former fellow of the Middle East Institute’s Frontier Europe Initiative, focusing on Black Sea security, and currently works as a Senior Development Associate at JA Europe, Europe’s leader in entrepreneurship, work readiness and financial health programmes for youth.

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China-Russian relations, defence, geopolitics, Iran, North Korea, Russia, Russian foreign policy, Russian invasion of Ukraine, security