As a major military power, Ukraine has options

A soldier of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in a trench in the Donetsk region a week before the Russian full-scale invasion in February 2024. Photo: Shutterstock

As the war in Ukraine drags on, a growing narrative in certain western circles suggests that exhaustion will eventually force Kyiv to the negotiating table. The logic follows that as the West’s political will wanes, and military support slows, Ukraine, starved of resources, will be compelled to accept whatever terms Russia dictates. Such assumptions, however, miss the reality on the ground. Ukraine has proven over the past two years that it will not yield. The country’s sheer size, its fierce resolve, and its remarkable ability to innovate under extreme duress have transformed it into Europe’s premier land power. The question is no longer whether Ukraine can survive, but how the West, and especially the US, will choose to engage it.

A nation transformed by war

In just under two years fighting a genocidal invader, Ukraine has emerged as one of Europe’s most capable military powers. Far from being a fragile, dependent state, Ukraine now possesses one of the most battle-hardened and innovative land forces on the continent, and certainly the largest. The Ukrainian military has absorbed and adapted to western weapons and tactics, and expanded an already robust indigenous defense industry that is now capable of producing drones, missiles and armoured vehicles in volume. It has also developed expertise in asymmetrical warfare, mastering new technologies and concepts of operation that have inflicted grievous losses on invading Russian forces.

Ukraine has not just survived. It has shown its teeth and an uncanny capacity for adaptability and ingenuity in a conflict of historic scale and intensity. Outnumbered and outgunned, the Ukrainian armed forces have nonetheless outperformed the Russian military consistently. And they have done so while creating new warfighting doctrines on the fly, with an odd assortment of kit, and aligning themselves more closely with NATO standards than many Alliance members themselves. The speed with which Ukraine has integrated a multitude of weapon types and tactics is something many European armies could only aspire to achieve.

Historic miscalculation

The true issue now is not whether Ukraine can survive without western support, but whether it will remain a partner of the West, particularly the United States. While Europe, despite its limitations, is looking to step up, it is the US that remains the ultimate deciding factor. The growing ambivalence in Washington toward Ukraine’s plight is not just a tactical mistake; it is a historic miscalculation.

Short of either total Ukrainian capitulation or Russian collapse — neither of which look particularly likely — Ukraine will emerge from this war challenged but largely territorially intact, fiercely anti-Russia, and in possession of Europe’s largest and most lethal land force. If it has western backing, it will become a powerful, battle-tested ally, deeply integrated into the western security architecture. But if forced to fight alone – abandoned by the US and left to its own devices – Ukraine will still survive, but carrying a sense of betrayal from the West and emerging not as a cooperative ally but as a self-sufficient, militarized garrison state. It will view the West (particularly Washington) as unreliable, even duplicitous, shifting its focus to pursue a more narrow conception of its national interests. This not only undermines transatlantic cooperation, but it will also represent the final collapse of American influence in the region — a region where Washington once held unmatched sway.

Irreplaceable

Ultimately, Ukraine’s future as a European military power is not contingent on western support alone. The real factor driving Ukraine’s success – and its future strength – is the country’s own resolve. Ukraine is not just a battleground between global powers; it is a nation of 40 million people with a singular determination to protect its sovereignty. Ukraine has done more to degrade and destroy Russian combat power than any NATO member ever has. It has consistently challenged Moscow’s military on the battlefield, and its forces are now battle-hardened, seasoned, and capable in ways that few would have predicted at the start of the war. This is a country that will dictate its own future, with or without Washington.

Ukraine’s military innovation and adaptability should not be underestimated. It has shown that it cannot only withstand but actively counter Russian advances. The Ukrainian military’s use of drones, long-range fire, and other cutting-edge technologies has been a game-changer, inflicting significant losses on Russian forces. No other European country, including NATO members or even the US itself, has been tested to this degree in modern warfare. Ukraine has adapted faster and more effectively than any nation on the continent. And in doing so, it has demonstrated that it can continue to fight, regardless of US or western oscillations.

If Washington continues to drag its feet or entertain unrealistic peace talks without Ukraine’s full participation, it risks pushing the country away. A Ukraine that feels betrayed or abandoned will not simply disappear – it will change. With military strength unmatched in Europe, prodigious natural resources, and an advanced defence industry, Ukraine will pursue its own strategic interests, seeking new alliances and developing its own defence and security policies. This shift could mark the beginning of a more fractured and unstable European security environment, one in which the US no longer holds sway.

Ally or fortress?

Ukraine’s trajectory is now set. Whether with or without the West, Ukraine will remain a military power in Europe, capable of containing Russia’s ambitions on its own. The only question now is whether the West – primarily the US – wants to engage with Ukraine as a partner and ally, or whether it will allow it to transform into a sceptical garrison state.

If Washington wants Ukraine and its considerable power to remain on its balance sheet, much less integrated into the European security framework, it must recognize the country’s agency and autonomy. The days of assuming that Ukraine will always need western lifelines are over. The US must decide, and the consequences of miscalculation are dire. The US must act decisively, or risk losing Ukraine – and perhaps Europe – entirely.

Ukraine does not need permission to fight for its survival. It has already proven that it will do so with whatever means it has. The choices made today will shape European security and the future of global leadership for years to come. Time is running out for Washington to make the right decision. If it fails, the consequences will be felt across the continent for generations.

Kerel Dysler is a veteran European defense analyst with over 20 years of experience conducting defense-technical assessments regarding Euro-Atlantic security requirements and operations. He most recently served as a requirements officer with the Joint Operational Capabilities and Posture Review Group.

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defence, Russian invasion of Ukraine, Ukrainian army, Ukrainian defence industry