The Three Seas Initiative is dead. Trump should revamp it before China does

US President Donald Trump answering questions at a White House press briefing on January 30th, 2025. Photo: Joshua Sukoff / Shutterstock

There is a geopolitical advantage on the table now clear in the region. Trump must grab it before Beijing moves in.

As China sets its sights on critical infrastructure projects in Europe, as well as Ukraine’s reconstruction, the United States faces a pivotal choice: to revamp its commitment to Central and Eastern Europe through the Three Seas Initiative (3SI) dedicated to infrastructure development, or risk ceding strategic ground to Beijing in a region of crucial interest.

The United States cannot afford to let Beijing continue expanding its geoeconomic footprint in Europe. China is already eyeing up Ukraine’s reconstruction as a critical site for infrastructure diplomacy. Allowing Beijing’s growing influence in the region would mean creating complex interdependencies with an authoritarian power in vital areas such as energy, ports, and telecommunications right in the heart of Europe. This will affect both European prosperity and security and the image of the United States in the world, drastically diminishing its chances of winning the great power competition with China.

If Trump is indeed willing to re-enact the “peace through strength” doctrine in order to emerge victorious in the rivalry with China, he will need the support of governments in the CEE region. These administrations have shown that they are ready to strategically and decisively align with the US in the competition with Beijing.

Whether we are referring to Romania’s decision to extend the ban on Huawei’s participation in the upcoming 6G equipment tenders, or the enhanced political dialogues with Taiwan promoted by the Czech Republic and Lithuania, the CEE region has proved to be consistently entrepreneurial in putting an end to the policy of naivety towards Beijing. Unfortunately, this second approach has characterized the attitude of Brussels officials for far too many years.

Apart from decisive alignment, the region is showing strategic maturity, championing increased defence spending. The Lithuanian president has vowed that his country will boost defence spending to five or six per cent of GDP starting from 2026. At the same time, Poland already leads defence investment in Europe, after spending 4.12 per cent of its GDP in this sphere in 2024.

Because a strong CEE region is also in Trump’s interest, the new administration must invest in reinvigorating the Three Seas Initiative. Strengthening the North-South corridor on NATO’s Eastern Flank will bring more prosperity to the region and bear geopolitical value, contributing to the resilience of supply chains.

The 3SI has various pillars of cooperation for bolstering regional connectivity (digitalization, transportation, and energy), with each having a set of priority projects. Due to the reluctance of governments in the region to cooperate on strategic projects and the red tape associated with EU-funded projects and low investment, ten years after the launch of the Initiative, only 14 out of 143 infrastructure priority projects have been completed. This information can be seen in the recent Progress Report.

In Trump’s first term, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo promised up to one billion US dollars in funding to develop this infrastructure in the region. However, this turned out to be an empty promise. Now, with the regional security situation worse than ever and the reconstruction of Ukraine knocking at the door, the new Trump administration has an opportunity to revamp the 3SI. Indeed, Washington could transform it into a powerhouse free from Beijing’s influence.

The role of the United States in this endeavour must be not only as an investor, but also as a mentor to push the states in the region to become even more strategically responsible and determined to build their own resilience in the face of Beijing and Moscow. As an example, the 3SI can help advance as a policy priority the total decoupling of the region from Russian gas. This could result in its gradual replacement with a strengthened energy partnership with the United States.

In a similar fashion, the 3SI can act as a consensus-building format for encouraging CEE governments to decisively ban Chinese equipment from their digitization projects. Furthermore, as I suggested in this policy paper, the CEE governments can develop the Initiative by adding an additional pillar to this cooperation format that concerns military modernization and innovation. This will be a way to signal the determination of states in the region to increase their military strength. It would also be an opportunity to internalize Ukraine’s valuable war lessons and find investors willing to scale up the technologies that have emerged from it.

The Three Seas Initiative has the ability to become a regional forum in which Ukraine’s reconstruction can be coordinated among like-minded allies. China is expected to have significant interest in Ukraine’s reconstruction, which would give it much economic leverage in a key region. The Trump administration has recently signalled interest in making military aid to the Ukrainians conditional on not granting China the right to exploit Ukraine’s rare minerals.

Ukraine, as an associate member of the Three Seas Initiative since 2023, has already submitted a number of priority infrastructure projects through the 3SI platform. These are projects that can help the US and its allies plan out how to couple reconstruction with broader regional architecture. These priority infrastructure projects include the development of the “Baltic Sea – Black Sea – Aegean Sea” corridor with the construction of a new gauge track on the territory of Ukraine. Others include the development of a network of logistic terminals, as well as the construction of new oil pipelines. Some of these projects could be financed through the 3SI Investment Fund, where American participation could be enhanced over time. After all, if the United States is determined to take advantage of Ukraine’s rare minerals, assuring that the business environment is secure and predictable is a sine qua non condition, and it all starts with reliable infrastructure.

Attending one of the first summits of the Three Seas Initiative at the invitation of his good friend and Polish President Andrzej Duda, Trump was the patron leader of this Euro-Atlantic infrastructure format. Ten years after its founding and in a delicate geopolitical context, the 3SI seems more obsolete than ever.

The new Trump administration has the opportunity to revamp it as a vehicle for supporting nations in its strategic competition with China. It could also be made into a powerhouse of strategically sound countries, which resonate with his “peace through strength” agenda. The issue overall relies on the United States’ determination to invest in one of the region’s greatest needs: infrastructure. If the US hesitates, this will be an open invitation to Beijing to expand its flagship Belt and Road Initiative further into the powder keg of Europe.

Antonia-Laura Pup is a policy fellow with Young Voices Europe. She is a Fulbright Student in Security Studies at Georgetown University, where she is researching China’s influence in the Black Sea region. Originally from Romania, she formerly advised the Chairman of the Defence Committee in the Romanian Parliament. She also formerly worked at the OECD and European Parliament.

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China, China in CEE, Donald Trump, Three Seas Initiative, US foreign policy