Paradise Lost?: Britain, Russia and the Chagos Islands

A protest in London in support of British Sovereignty of the Chagos archipelago in Oktober 2023. Photo: Joe Kuis / Shutterstock

At first glance, the remote Chagos Islands appear to be the last place that would be of any interest to the Kremlin. Situated in the middle of the Indian Ocean, this group of atolls and reefs seems a million miles away from Moscow’s long-term fixation with Ukraine. Such disparity is also reflected in the fact that the sparse archipelago offers little in the way of resources, a stark contrast with Russia’s embattled neighbour. However, a brief look through the headlines reveals what could be a geopolitical flashpoint in the making. Overseen by a new British government now considering the islands’ future, the area has become just the latest stage in this most bitter of bilateral rivalries. Events in the shadows may subsequently shed light on the finer points of Moscow’s wider clash with the West.

Intrigue surrounding the region can be traced back to an advisory notice given by the United Nations’ International Court of Justice in 2019. Brought by the island nation of Mauritius, this legal case would advise London to transfer sovereignty over what is officially known as the British Indian Ocean Territory (BIOT). Mauritius and the Chagos were governed under the same colonial administration before the second group of islands were made a separate entity in 1965. As a result, the dispute touches on the highly emotive theme of decolonization. This is especially true as the fate of the islands’ displaced native population remains uncertain. Despite this, another issue appears even more enticing to rival powers such as Russia. This is namely the fact that the area is home to a joint Anglo-American military base on the largest island of Diego Garcia. In operation since 1976, the outpost has been used to monitor shipping traversing the key chokepoints between Europe and Asia. Indeed, so important is this base that British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has demanded “strong protections” in a now stalled deal. This agreement would see the UK retain the base for at least 99 years. Much has been made about Beijing’s attempts to take advantage of this uncertainty, particularly by the new Trump administration. In spite of this, the issue of the Chagos Islands does appear to merge seamlessly with the Kremlin’s often overlooked ambitions in the area.

Back to the future

A brief foray into history reveals previous when it comes to Russian foreign policy. The country’s return to Africa has become a hot topic in recent years. Seen as a largely local actor following the Soviet collapse, Moscow has increasingly asserted itself in a continent once brimming with friendly local networks. This welcoming environment was the result of the socialist superpower’s long-standing support for anti-colonial movements aimed against states like Britain during the Cold War. While condemned for imperialism closer to home, the Soviet Union would find in the more distant Global South a place where ideology could remain in the abstract. The hard power prized by Moscow would subsequently combine with an effective appeal to internationalism. Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev would even declare a “militant union” with the world’s colonized peoples as a result. Fast forward to today and this sleight of hand has experienced a revival. Support for dictatorships in countries such as Burkina Faso and Mali has allowed for a growth in influence and material enrichment. Recent years have witnessed the widespread if troubled activities of Moscow-backed mercenaries, as well as several editions of a Russia-Africa Summit. A new Department for Partnership with Africa was even announced in recent days. These platforms have also allowed for renewed criticism of former colonial rulers in the West. For example, a colourful press release last year would attack French diplomacy for its “colonial and post-colonial crimes”. The Chagos dispute therefore offers the perfect opportunity to similarly challenge the UK, with Putin’s team eager to court new partners following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

A Russian presence in this particular case is by no means new. The status of the BIOT has long simmered in British politics ever since the first attempts by Mauritius to challenge the status quo in the 1980s. However, it is clear that the effective “globalization” of the case around 2019 was made possible by Russian help. Government sources in Britain have indicated that there have been regular warnings over Moscow’s attempts to “stir up support” in the Mauritian capital of Port Louis. This is supported by work conducted at the Royal United Services Institute think tank. The researcher Jack Watling, for instance, has noted how the Kremlin “carried out significant diplomatic legwork to ensure Mauritius had support” for its legal case. Whispers therefore abound in London over yet another Russian “lawfare” campaign. Attempts to reverse engineer the rules-based international order have certainly been a long-running part of Kremlin strategy. This is exemplified by Moscow’s presence at a UN meeting specifically focused on the Chagos issue in May 2020. Demanding that Britain “complete the decolonization of Mauritius”, Russia was just one of seven states to offer a detailed reply in the debate. It goes without saying that there is more to this appeal than meets the eye.

This activity has been supported by a wider charm offensive in Port Louis. Diplomatic niceties aside, Russian efforts to bolster bilateral links appear above all to be a means to a wider goal. An unnamed source from Whitehall would even state bluntly that “They don’t give a monkey’s about Mauritius – that’s not what it’s about for them. What this is all about is ways they can undermine us and make us look weaker.” The Kremlin’s dedicated policy on the Chagos issue is subsequently complemented by a wider attempt to bring the strategically important island nation closer into its orbit. Of course, Moscow will be well aware that Mauritius is a member of the British Commonwealth of Nations, which functions as an effective regional network for London. Extensive diplomatic meetings appear the order of the day in this wider strategy. For instance, an exchange late last year would see Ambassador Irada Zeynalova meet with the Mauritian Culture Minister Mahendra Gondeea. Discussions would centre on the commemoration of Soviet sailors’ assistance to the country after a cyclone 50 years ago. Despite the worthy nature of this project, it is hard to ignore the potential presence of an ulterior motive. This is best seen in the existence of MAURUSS, a dedicated cultural group between both countries. It will not be lost on the British government that such efforts now also extend to nearby Commonwealth nations such as the Seychelles.

Deal or no deal?

So what does all this Moscow meddling mean for the stalled Chagos deal? Recent weeks have seen a bewildering series of headlines concerning whether or not the agreement will actually go ahead. While Keir Starmer has continued to express his support for the transfer, this has not been without a lack of clarity. In particular, opponents have highlighted how the amount of money tied up with the lease of the military base remains uncertain. With a possible conclusion with Mauritius imminent, the potential security implications of the deal have suddenly come to the fore. A heated exchange in parliament would see the prime minister warn how continued uncertainty over the BIOT would only be “a gift to our adversaries”. This all but confirms that more is being discussed behind the scenes concerning rivals like the Kremlin. It is perhaps no wonder that Richard Dearlove, the former head of MI6, has stated that Russia’s activity over the islands “fits their playbook precisely”. As aforementioned, however, the final word on this back and forth ultimately looks set to come from Washington. The Trump administration has been particularly keen to tie its effective veto over the Chagos to the threat of potential encroachment by rival powers. This has only been exacerbated by alarming Mauritian claims that concluding a deal will help “prevent a third party from entering the base”. As China and even Iran are named as possible trespassers, it is safe to say that a Russian administration, no stranger to the area, could well follow suit.

In conclusion, the Chagos Islands represent a new episode in this thoroughly tense period in Anglo-Russian affairs. Once largely associated with espionage on the streets of London and Moscow, relations have once again gone global to the point that they now involve even this distant archipelago. Such reach is in large part due to the battle over values powering much of this confrontation. This is exemplified by the fact that events are being watched closely in an embattled Ukraine, which effectively acts as the “Gordian Knot” at the heart of this renewed clash. The head of the Ukrainian parliament’s foreign affairs committee, Oleksandr Merezhko, would even sum up Kyiv’s wider view on the dispute: “The UK is supporting the rule of law and Ukraine, which makes the UK Russia’s enemy. Therefore Russia is using each opportunity to undermine stability and the UK interests.” As a result, a key theoretical link to Europe’s most salient issue runs through the fine print of any deal with Mauritius. While London has stressed time and time again that it has done its homework, it is always worth double checking. After all, it is certain that Moscow will be keeping a close eye on proceedings.

Niall Gray is the copy editor and proofreader of New Eastern Europe. He is also an AHRC-funded History PhD student at the University of Strathclyde.

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disinformation, Indian Ocean, Russia-Ukraine war, Russian foreign policy, UK foreign policy, United Kingdom