Is Ukraine’s energy infrastructure ready for the upcoming winter?

Thermal power plant in Kyiv. Photo: Ivan Nakonechnyy / Shutterstock

As the Russians continue their full-scale invasion of Ukraine, another crisis is afoot. According to several news outlets, Ukraine’s energy infrastructure may not be ready for the upcoming winter.

In a recent report, the Royal United Services Institute think tank stated that the Ukrainians are “bracing for [their] hardest winter”. Meanwhile, the Associated Press said that Ukraine will face its “hardest winter due to intensified Russian attacks on energy infrastructure”.

There are several reasons to raise the alarm about the state of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. As Europe approaches the coming winter, Ukraine’s energy sector finds itself at risk. When Russia’s full-scale invasion began in February 2024, the Russians captured and controlled the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), a large energy provider in Ukraine. Following these events, the Russians shelled the ZNPP. This alarmed the United Nations, the International Atomic Energy Agency, and the Nuclear Energy Agency.

Furthermore, the Russians have destroyed numerous thermal power plants across Ukraine. The Russians have also targeted Ukraine’s hydroelectric capacity. Finally, Russia has launched numerous strikes on Ukrainian power grids.

This devastation has taken a significant toll on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. If the Ukrainians cannot repair damaged or destroyed energy facilities ahead of the winter, then they will be in a challenging situation.

The Ukrainians have dealt with cold winters even when the Russians have tampered with Kyiv’s energy and gas supplies. But with the constant shelling of facilities in the country, the Ukrainians have found themselves in a more difficult situation.

Since the Russian full-scale invasion, Ukraine has had to conserve energy. There have been reports of blackouts in various regions across the country to conserve heat and electricity. This winter may be more brutal, and residents will need to conserve their energy as it is estimated that blackouts could reach up to 20 hours per day. In other words, the race is on for Ukraine to ensure that its energy sector is prepared to make it through another harsh winter.

For Ukraine, these energy risks are nothing new. Prior to the full-scale invasion in 2022, the Ukrainians were subjected to Russian attacks on their energy sector. For example, in 2015, the Ukrainians experienced power outages in the dead of winter in December 2015. It was soon discovered that Russia had launched a cyber-attack on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Thousands of Ukrainians were temporarily left without power. Then, in 2016, the Russians launched a similar cyber-attack when they tampered with Kyiv’s energy supplies. Since then, Russian cyber-attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure have become common.

These events have helped Ukraine strengthen its energy infrastructure, and the country has enhanced its cyber defences. But these improvements did not stand a chance against Russia’s aerial bombardments. Since 2022, the Ukrainians have worked hard to try and address the issues caused by Russian missile strikes, especially during the winter months.

Ukraine previously succeeded during the previous two winters, but this time will be different. To date, Russian bombardments have destroyed 60 per cent of Ukraine’s power generation capacity. Furthermore, Ukraine is enduring its worst rolling blackouts since the start of the Russian full-scale invasion in February 2022.

Ukrainians are working urgently to address these concerns. One option is to rebuild their damaged and destroyed energy facilities. At the same time, others have turned to the option of nuclear energy to stabilize the country’s power supply during this critical period.

But there are several challenges with these approaches. First, Ukraine lacks sufficient anti-aircraft systems and ammunition to defend itself against Russian attacks. This leaves its infrastructure exposed and it also complicates reconstruction efforts. Furthermore, Ukraine is still subjected to Russian bombardments. If Ukraine is unable to protect its energy infrastructure from Moscow’s current and future attacks, then these reconstruction efforts would be meaningless. After all, this infrastructure would only be destroyed again in a Russian attack. The threat of attacks on these rebuilding efforts also makes it difficult for Ukraine to raise money through investments for these reconstruction efforts.

These challenges cannot be ignored. However, the Ukrainians may have options on how to boost their energy-generating capacity ahead of winter. For example, Ukraine could seek to enhance its greater power grid interconnectivity. When the Russian invasion of Ukraine began, “the Ukrainians synchronised their electricity grids with the Continental European Network. This has helped Ukraine ‘stabilise its electricity system’.” It has also made Ukraine’s energy sector less reliant on Russia. Pursuing other avenues to cut ties with Russian energy while strengthening integration with Europe could be effective.

Second, decentralized energy systems may help Ukraine’s energy issues. For example, constructing decentralized energy sources would make Ukrainian energy infrastructure less susceptible to Russian attacks. Local municipalities have deployed small gas turbines to power homes, hospitals and essential services. While this is a temporary solution for Ukraine to prepare for the upcoming winter, the Ukrainians will need to work with energy experts to establish a long-term solution.

In short, Ukraine is racing against time to prepare for a potentially bleak winter. Prioritizing the resilience of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure is essential. The Ukrainian government must take actions to ensure that energy demands are met across the country. This should include hardening critical energy facilities against cyber-attacks and physical threats, as well as developing contingency plans for rapid power restoration in the case of disruptions. Addressing these issues will help the Ukrainians prepare for the upcoming brutal and bleak winter. Otherwise, Ukraine may suffer.

Mark Temnycky is an accredited freelance journalist covering Eurasian affairs and a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council Eurasia Center.

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energy security, Russian invasion of Ukraine, Ukraine at war