The border with Belarus is a challenge for the state, not a threat to the Polish people

Polish soldiers near a fence on the border with Belarus. Photo: Shutterstock

JAROSŁAW KOCISZEWSKI: How would you define Belarus? An enemy? A rival? What is Belarus from the perspective of Polish security?

MIROSŁAW RÓŻAŃSKI: If Belarus had been fully sovereign in the way it functions, then this would have been easy to define. We should however keep in mind that Belarus and Russia together form a union state. It is true the agreement has not been entirely implemented, like the economic integration and a common monetary system. But in the military sphere they make up one organism and we need to take that into account. We have be aware that Belarus is ruled from a self-declared president – the dictator Alyaksandr Lukashenka. At the same time the country hasn’t been stripped of a strong opposition against his power in my opinion. That is why we cannot treat Belarus as an enemy in the literal meaning of the term – as a country hostile to us Poles. Because a part of the Belarusian society thinks differently. This includes a large number of emigrants of which many are also a part of our society. This is why I believe that we should be mainly focused on Belarus in the long-term.

Is Belarus a challenge for Polish security?

Absolutely. Belarus cannot be ignored from the perspective of our security for two reasons. Firstly, the military dimension. This country is a base for Russia and Putin. We should keep in mind that the geographic location of Belarus isn’t without consequence also with regards to the Kalliningrad enclave. Secondly, Belarus is ruled by a man that wants to stay in power no matter the cost. Desperate people in power, despots in particular, can make different decisions. An example of such a threat seen now is the common Belarusian and Russian policy of dismantling western Europe. I am talking about what is generally known as hybrid warfare, something that we see in the threat against our border where migrants are pushed by force. This is why we should treat the Belarusian issue seriously within the context of our own security. I wouldn’t expect that we will see Belarusian tanks crossing our border suddenly. But actions in other spheres, such as the hybrid one, could be taken with the involvement of Belarus.  

You mentioned two dimensions, including the conventional threat. What about the Belarusian army, how much of a danger does it pose to Poland? Could it have a significance in the context of the war in Ukraine?

In military terms, the Belarusian armed forces don’t constitute a potential threat to our security. Let’s start from what we can measure seen in different comparisons, like amount of hardware and numbers of units. Additionally, the training standards of these soldiers are far behind the ones seen in armies where independent thought prevails. This is a Soviet-style army with a top-to-bottom command structure. Without its commanders the soldiers aren’t able to perform their tasks.

You also ask about Belarusian-Ukrainian relations. We should note that for two and a half years of full-scale war triggered illegaly by Russia, Belarus has not invovled itself militarily. It hands over equipment, allows for the use of its bases and territory – like in the first attack and march on Kyiv. But the Belarusian army is neither a threat to Poland nor Ukraine on its own. At the same time, Ukraine is at a stage in the conflict where every battalion and brigade counts. This is why Ukraine isn’t able to project strength at its border with Belarus. I should repeat however, that Belarus is not a military threat to us.

What about how Russia uses Belarus? An example of this are Russian missiles flying from Belarusian territory crossing into Polish airspace.

This is at the centre of what we should be interested in – to view Belarus as a part of a union with the combined potential of Russia. We have to be aware that this is already a very serious threat. The missile that landed near Bydgoszcz is such an example. We should also worry about the geographical proximity of the Russian Kalliningrad Oblast. Let’s say the war in Ukraine came to an end – without defining how – but let’s say it did. What would happen if Putin wanted to repeat a historical lesson from the 1930s, when Germany, wanting to stoke tensions and edge closer to war, demanded a highway between Berlin and Königsberg? It is not impossible that Russia stands up for its citizens in the Kalliningrad Oblast in case of a humanitarian crisis or an existential threat. Moscow would then like to secure a free passage towards this territory. I could imagine Belarus becoming a transit country in such a case. Poland would then be an obstacle. I don’t want to continue down this path, but in this scenario Belarus would really become a Russian vassal constituting a thread to us.

Let’s discuss the ongoing hybrid war. The migrants that are brought to Belarus are then pushed towards the borders of Poland, but also Lithuania and Latvia. How much is this a military issue or a political one?

First of all, the absolute foundation is what is stated in the Constitution. It says that the Polish Republic is a state that should secure the inviolability of its borders and territory. This closes the debate. When it comes to the growing issue concerning the migrants, it should be said that it started from a group of 23 people that tried to cross our border. “Political gold” – sadly, that is what it was for the previous government that stopped ruling on October 15, 2023 (de facto December 13, 2023. There weren’t any deliberations on how to solve the problem, only how to use it. I will be blunt – it was used to scare the society. The problem that we have with migrants on our border is not a thread to our security, but a challenge for our state. I would like to be clear that a dozen or a few hundred migrants, forced or not, are not a threat to the country. The same was true with regards to the units of Prigozhin when they were moved to Belarus in absence of their commander. This was used by then Defence Minister Mariusz Błaszczak to scare the society again. It was said that awful things would happen because these units would force their way across the border posing a danger to us. What did the Polish government do? It sent thousands of soldiers to the border and put up some phoney anti-tank barriers towards Belarus and the Kalliningrad Oblast. Experts viewed this as being totally staged. Citizens without this knowledge would buy into this.

I am worried by two aspects of this crisis. From one side we have the humanitarian crisis which we should not shy away from. On the other side meanwhile, we have a challenge to the security of our border which also didn’t become a subject. The international community should have been informed from the very beginning that these aren’t only people looking for a better future escaping Aleppo or the Talibs. But it is in fact an operation designed by Moscow and Minsk. The isolation of the region where these people shoved towards the border appeared amassed interest that then transformed into fears. We do have Frontex in Warsaw, a police structure that is responsible for the security of the borders of the European Union. It was not involved. I would have filled the border with the journalists of all the stations of the world to show them what this is all about. Meanwhile, it was covered by some great secrecy just to fearmonger. That was how Law and Justice (PiS) operated whilst in power. It scared the society.

I was at the border after this tragedy and following the death of a Polish soldier. After two years of events unfolding on the border and its vicinity, I needed only a few hours to understand what problems we faced there. The “Safe Podlachia” operation [which involved 17 thousand soldiers ed. note] we all heard about was planned earlier then enacted by the Armed Forces General Command. The military aspect of the situation is a disaster. I haven’t seen such an unprepared military operation during my 35 year-long service in uniform. Frankly speaking, I blame such a state of affairs on those in uniform, as they are the ones who accepted such irrational political decisions. They also tried to act on these decisions, and they ended up doing it very poorly. The result was that the so-called “border act” was processed in an accelerated manner accompanied by discussion about who and what entity should be assigned to using live ammunition. Such haste with regards to such delicate issues is not advisable.

I’m under the impression that you are throwing stones in a glass house. Minister Błaszczak hasn’t been in office for many months now, and still not much is changing on the ground.

I’m assuming that you don’t intend to insult me, as my backyard is the Polish Republic and I have been critical of things in the army, while in the army. The result of which were several perturbations and departure from positions. An example of this is how I left in 2017, which was a demonstration. I wanted to show the society that things are not well in the realm of security administration. IT was also a message to the president and the defence minister at the time, Antoni Macierewicz.

Today I am a parliamentarian, a senator that was elected by the society. I want to remind you that the elections to the senate are through single member districts meaning you cannot hide behind political colours. You must convince people from the district itself. I ran for office as part of the senate pact, and I will not forget that I was designated to it by Polska 2050. I thank them for their trust, but it doesn’t make me a silent observer in case something is wrong in the security domain, even if that was the party’s will. By the way, I am not a member of any party, and I would like to remain so.

Throwing stones in a glass house – well I have met with the gardener and discussed the state of the crop. I suggest what actions we could take to improve it. That is how I view my mission.

Let’s discuss this mission on the border with Belarus. You would prefer Frontex, more transparency and strategic communication, rather than the army?

Absolutely not the army. It should get there last. In one of the scenes in Armageddon, the army arrives at the place that controlled the operation in space and takes command over the group saving earth. I believe that the army should be utilized in such a way, as the final line of defence providing us with security. According to the Constitution the authority responsible for the border is the Polish Border Guard. End of the story. Naturally, the Law on the Border Guard does allow for army units to be deployed in support of the border guards, or independently complete such a mission. This independent mission is what I view as the “final defence”.

My visit on the border confirmed my opinion. After two years of border crisis, and one and a half years after the military operation, I noted that there is no communication, no interaction between the border guard and the army, between the army and police and the police and border guard. I did not invent this myself. I had these people in front of me. I spoke to them, and they confirmed my observation that it would be easy to solve. Please note how far things went under PiS. People from the border guard and army who noticed these issues were not brave enough or did not want to mention them. Perhaps it was the politician that did not want to listen. To me this is inexplainable and means that the officers or soldiers did not fulfil their missions by refraining to optimize their methods. I prepared 18 points that I passed on to the minister of interior and minister of defence. I am happy that these suggestions and recommendations are being introduced, albeit not at the pace I would hope for.

I also want to stress the such a great involvement of the army in the defence of the border – we now hear of 17 thousand soldiers – is in Putin’s interest. If there are anti-aircraft crews, artillerymen, minesweepers and other specialists deployed at the border, they are not preparing for war. They should be stationed in barracks and shooting ranges. They should be preparing themselves to face the real threat we face. The war is just beyond our border. Helicopters are flying through our border with Belarus. Russian missiles have fallen on Polish territory. The army exists so it can defend the Polish Republic. In order to do so, it needs the cooperation of different branches. But do you really need thousands of soldiers, border guards and hundred’s of police officers to halt a few dozen or hundred migrants that have been ill-treated by the Belarusians? One of the main subjects at the War Studies Academy was the economy of warfare. What is happening on the border now does not match any category of that field.

If I understand correctly, Lukashenka and Putin are winning this hybrid war from on the military level, as the Polish army doesn’t have the possibility to train? In practice, it would mean lower combat readiness.

Absolutely. We cannot allow for a situation where a potential aggressor dictates the terms. It is us who calculate the threat that should be the ones matching the potential of the army, its training and programs if the need arises. The war, as defined in our documents, doctrine and Constitution, changes its dimension. It does not have to mean a direct involvement on the part of a potential adversary, meaning Russia, which is viewed differently since the summit in Madrid. It is now defined as a threat to our region, Europe and the world by a consensus of leaders of NATO member states. This is why we should really find solutions for the threats in the hybrid and cyber domains. There are no guns there, no tanks nor cannons. We all agree when we present it as a threat, but should we call it a war? I believe that we should consider that. After all, havoc can be raised in the country and elections can be influenced. This is why I think that war and its definition should be thoroughly analysed. Maybe such a debate would lead to a better comprehension of the threat.

This article was first published in Polish by NEW.org.pl

Mirosław Różański is the former general commander of the armed forces. He was the commander of the 11th cavalry brigade and a brigade in Iraq. After leaving active military duty he formed Stratpoints, a foundation for security and development. He serves as a senator in the Polish parliament.

Jarosław Kociszewski is a broadcast and print journalist. Long-term Polish media corresponent in the Middle East and formerly of Polish Radio. He works with NGOs with a special focus on the Middle East and East Africa. Currently he is the editor of the Nowa Europa Wschodnia portal and an expert for Security and Development Foundation Stratpoints.

“We suport the Belarusian Awakening’24” is a project co-financed by Solidarity Fund PL within the framework of Polish development cooperation of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Poland in the amount of PLN 230,000.

This publication expresses the views of the author only and cannot be identified with the official position of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Poland.

hybrid threats, hybrid war, migrants, Poland, Polish army, Polish-Belarusian border, Polish-Belarusian relations