Defending democracy in Georgia

Photo: George Khelashvili / Shutterstock

On October 26th Georgia will face a critical election that could be the most significant since its independence in 1991. The implications are profound: Georgia could either fall under the influence of a Russian-controlled government led by the Georgian oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili, becoming a close ally or, in the worst-case, a satellite state of the Russian Federation – a path the current government appears to be pursuing.

On the other hand, a diverse, pro-western coalition could emerge, reaffirming Georgia’s ambitions for NATO and EU membership, with a realistic chance of achieving EU membership within the next decade. This alternative promises economic growth, social stability, democratic reforms and enhanced national security.

Supporting the Georgian people in their pursuit of political will is not just about preserving democracy within this small nation, but also about recognizing the broader implications of this electoral choice, which will be explored in detail.

Why the West must act now

Georgia stands at a crucial crossroads and the West must act decisively to support its pro-democracy majority. Failure to act risks transforming Georgia into a Russian satellite, with significant strategic consequences for western regional interests. Here is what the West stands to lose if Georgia falls under Russian influence:

Loss of a strategic geopolitical ally

Georgia’s strategic position at the crossroads of Europe and Asia makes it an invaluable ally. It serves as a vital transit hub for energy pipelines, such as the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, which enables Caspian oil to reach western markets without traversing Russian territory. Should Russia consolidate control over Georgia, it would gain significant leverage over energy supply routes, undermining Europe’s energy diversification efforts and increasing dependence on Russian energy.

Additionally, Georgia’s access to the Black Sea is crucial for both trade and military strategy. Russian dominance in Georgia would enhance its control over the Black Sea, restricting NATO’s ability to project power and safeguard its interests in the region. This would also affect NATO’s capacity to support other Black Sea states, such as Ukraine and Romania, thereby diminishing overall regional security.

Weakening of NATO’s Influence and Regional Security

Georgia has been a dedicated NATO partner, contributing to various missions and consistently seeking membership. A shift towards Russian alignment would jeopardize the security of NATO’s eastern flank, undermining the alliance’s strategic objectives in Eastern Europe and the South Caucasus. Allowing Russia to gain control over Georgia would embolden Moscow’s aggressive foreign policy and expansionist tactics, setting a dangerous precedent that could encourage further Russian encroachments into other post-Soviet states. This would destabilize the entire region and challenge NATO’s credibility and deterrence capabilities.

Undermining democratic movements and western values

Georgia has stood out as a beacon of democracy in the region, striving for closer ties with the West and implementing democratic reforms. A shift towards Russian alignment would represent a significant setback for democratic progress, not only in Georgia but throughout the region. Permitting Georgia to fall under Russian influence would signal a retreat from supporting democratic values and institutions, potentially encouraging the spread of authoritarianism. This would erode civil liberties and human rights within Georgia and deliver a propaganda victory to authoritarian regimes globally, undermining the broader struggle for democracy.

Economic and Energy Security Threats

Under Russian control, Georgia would grant Moscow greater leverage over key energy routes to Europe, threatening the European Union’s energy security. This would reduce the availability of alternatives to Russian energy, increasing vulnerability to energy blackmail and supply disruptions. Furthermore, Georgia plays a pivotal role as a transit corridor between Europe and Asia. Russian dominance over Georgia would disrupt these trade routes, impacting economic interests and increasing transportation costs for goods between these regions.

Threat to the middle corridor

The Middle Corridor, or Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, is a crucial trade route linking Asia to Europe via Central Asia, the Caspian Sea, and the South Caucasus, including Georgia. It provides an alternative to the Northern Corridor, which traverses Russian territory. The corridor has gained strategic importance amid global supply chain disruptions and the need for reliable routes independent of Russian control. If Russia gains control over Georgia, the viability of the Middle Corridor would be severely compromised, leading to several negative consequences.

The Middle Corridor supports the movement of goods between Asia and Europe, facilitating regional trade and economic integration. Russian dominance over Georgia would give Moscow leverage over this critical route, potentially disrupting trade flows and increasing costs for European and Asian businesses.

With the Middle Corridor endangered, countries and businesses seeking alternatives to Russian routes would face fewer options, potentially increasing reliance on Russian-controlled pathways and undermining efforts to diversify supply chains. The EU has promoted the Middle Corridor as part of its broader connectivity strategy to enhance trade and transport links with Central Asia. Russian control over Georgia would weaken these initiatives, reducing Europe’s strategic autonomy and connectivity with Asia.

The Middle Corridor is not just a trade route but a vital component of the regional economic landscape. Russian interference could destabilize these regions, impacting economic growth and political stability. By threatening the Middle Corridor, Russia’s control over Georgia would pose a broader threat to international trade and regional cooperation, underscoring the urgent need for the West to support Georgia’s sovereignty and democratic aspirations.

Loss of a partner in counterterrorism and regional stability

Georgia has been a reliable partner in counterterrorism and regional security, contributing to peacekeeping operations and supporting the West’s fight against global terrorism. Alignment with Russia would disrupt these partnerships, diminishing western influence and the ability to address security threats in the region. Additionally, losing Georgia as a pro-western ally could destabilize the South Caucasus, increasing tensions among regional powers like Turkey and Iran. This instability might lead to broader conflicts, complicating western efforts to maintain peace and security in this strategically important region.

Undermining the credibility of western commitments

The West’s failure to support Georgia would have profound implications for its credibility. It would suggest an unwillingness or inability to stand by its allies and support pro-democracy movements, potentially leading other pro-western nations to reassess their alliances. This erosion of trust could push other countries toward Russia out of necessity, altering the balance of power and diminishing Western influence in Eastern Europe and beyond.

Investment and aid overview

We must not squander the substantial investments and efforts the West has devoted to Georgia since its independence. Below is a partial list of investments made by the EU and the US in Georgia:

US Investments:

1. USAID Assistance: Since 1991, USAID has been a primary channel of US assistance to Georgia, focusing on democracy, economic development and social sectors. Over $1.8 billion in assistance has been provided from 1991 to 2021, supporting governance reforms, economic growth, and civil society development.

2. Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC): First Compact (2005-2011): Approximately $395 million for infrastructure projects, including roads, energy, and regional development. Second Compact (2013-2019): About $140 million for education, including STEM programs and vocational education.

3. US Security Assistance: Significant military and security assistance, amounting to approximately $200 million since 1991, to support Georgia’s defense capabilities and NATO integration.

Thus, the total US Investments in Georgia reach approximately $2.5 billion from 1991 to the present.

EU Investments:

1. EU Financial Assistance: The EU has been a major contributor to Georgia’s development through various instruments, including the European Neighbourhood Instrument (ENI) and Eastern Partnership programs. From 1992 to 2020, over 3.9 billion euros (approximately $4.2 billion) in grants and loans have been provided for governance reforms, economic development, infrastructure, and social programs.

2. Support for Democratic Reforms: Investments have targeted the rule of law, judiciary reforms, election processes, human rights, and civil society.

3. Infrastructure and Connectivity Projects: Key infrastructure projects, including transport and energy, to integrate Georgia more closely with European markets, contributing several hundred million euros to these sectors.

Thus, the total EU investments reaches approximately $4.2 billion from 1991 to the present.

This makes a combined total of EU and US assistance between roughly $6.7 billion and $7 billion from 1991 to the present, focusing on democratic institution-building, economic development, security and infrastructure.

This substantial investment underscores the strategic importance of Georgia to the West and highlights the need to safeguard these efforts from being undermined by Russian influence. Continued support is vital for maintaining Georgia’s trajectory toward democracy and integration with Western institutions.

Before its too late

Given the significance of the investments made in Georgia since 1991, including its progress in nation-building, security, diplomacy and economic development, these achievements must be preserved and built upon. According to resent Edison Research polls, 63 per cent of Georgians believe the country is heading in the wrong direction, while 86 per cent support European integration.

Assisting Georgia is crucial given the risk that the current pro-Russian government might manipulate election results, employ brutal tactics similar to those used during the protests against the “Russian law” and declare a constitutional majority based on their own poll predictions. Such actions would spell disaster for both the country and the region, potentially leading to the rise of another authoritarian regime in Eastern Europe.

The West must respond proactively and urgently, starting with an unprecedented number of election monitors to ensure transparency and fairness in the upcoming elections. This will help prevent manipulation and uphold democratic standards. If election results are found to be falsified, the West should immediately impose strict sanctions on Georgian government officials, including oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili and his affiliates. The EU and the US must leverage all available political and diplomatic tools to pressure the Georgian government to return to a democratic path. Direct support to pro-democracy groups and civil society organizations in Georgia should be enhanced to strengthen their capacity to advocate for democratic reforms and counteract authoritarian influences. The West should reaffirm its commitment to Georgia’s aspirations for NATO and EU membership, providing clear and tangible support to reinforce its integration efforts.

Acting now is crucial to safeguarding the investments made in Georgia since its independence and to preserving the democratic progress achieved. Delaying action could result in significant long-term strategic losses and undermine the West’s credibility in supporting democratic movements worldwide. Failure to act now could result in long-term strategic losses that would be challenging, if not impossible, to reverse.

Nika Sikharulidze is an expert in the fields of national security, international relations and defence matters. His prior professional roles have been characterised by the provision of strategic counsel and the assumption of leadership positions within the Office of the National Security Council of Georgia and the Parliament of Georgia.

democracy, EU integration, Georgia, Georgia-West relations, Russia