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What if Ukraine will lose? What if Ukraine will win?

The war in Ukraine is now reaching a turning point that could see the war-torn country either win or lose the conflict. The West is subsequently faced with the question of whether it will truly back Kyiv in its aim to achieve victory. Such a decision will have consequences for the entire world order.

September 4, 2024 - Valerii Pekar - Articles and Commentary

Motherland monument in Kyiv. Photo: Shutterstock

In Europe and the US, political discussions are ongoing regarding possible amounts of aid to Ukraine. In my opinion, these discussions can be helped by a clear vision of the world in line with two alternative scenarios: Ukrainian defeat and Ukrainian victory. What benefits and losses will western countries have to face? It is worth analyzing such possible outcomes.

What if Ukraine will lose?

Imagine the world after Ukraine’s defeat.

First, this would be a clear signal to all aggressive regimes around the globe: you can do whatever you want. The rule-based and agreement-based world order is over. The world would go back to how it was 100 years ago, with all the efforts and victims related to the Second World War wasted. China will use force to expand its influence, which could result in a new world war. But also smaller autocracies across the world will attack their weaker neighbours like Saddam Hussein attacked Kuwait. North Korean forces will appear more in conflicts across the globe. Piracy, blocking trade routes and cutting communications will be a normal practice. Commodity prices will go up, insurance rates will be sky high, and free trade will be forced to shrink.

Second, it would be clear that only nuclear weapons can stop an aggressor. All long-term efforts to stop proliferation will be wasted. Nuclear blackmail will be the norm. The planet will become a much more insecure place, and the probability of nuclear accidents will only grow.

Third, the fall of Ukraine will create a new wave of refugees much bigger than before. This will undermine the European economy and social cohesion.

Fourth, Russia will not stop. A successful offensive in Ukraine will strengthen it with Ukrainian resources, including local people drafted into the Russian army. Russia will go forward, to the Baltics (as described by the General Richard Shirreff) and Poland, to the Caucasus and Central Asia, restoring its empire as Putin promised. Russia will more actively penetrate elections in the free world; expand its media influence, cyber-attacks and secret operations; and weaponize fuel and grain. New hot spots will appear in Africa, the Middle East and Asia, perhaps one day even in the western hemisphere. Those westerners who are afraid of escalation will see their biggest fears become reality.

Fifth, very probably the Russian economy will not survive a further escalation in its aggressive wars. The collapse of the Russian economy will produce even more issues like the proliferation of nuclear weapons; humanitarian catastrophes such as refugee crises; the growth of radical Islam; and the further strengthening of China with Russian resources.

Sixth, the efficiency of dictatorship and weakness of democracy will be proven for all to see. Strong hands and Russia sympathizers will come to power in many countries, including Europe. European unity will be over as well as European dreams for sustainable peace. EU-US relations will also deteriorate greatly.

An interim remark

Some people in the West believe that it is possible to end the war without a Ukrainian defeat or victory – in sports language, a draw. However, war is not a sport. The cessation of hostilities without defeat or victory is only a respite for Russia, which will not give up its goals.

I have to note that Ukraine’s defeat does not necessarily mean that Russian forces would be able to break through the Ukrainian defence. This could be a consequence of a long war of attrition, making Ukraine scorched earth unfit for life and leading to the collapse of the country’s energy system and economy. It could also be a consequence of an imposed ceasefire, which will be used by Russia and its allies to accumulate enough missiles to beat Ukraine’s air defence and annihilate its government. All the indecisions that we have observed throughout the last few years could finally end in Ukraine’s defeat. Time matters. Ukrainian resilience is great but not unlimited.

What if Ukraine will win?

Imagine the world after Russia’s defeat.

First, this would offer a clear signal that the world order based on rules and agreements is sustainable. China and other aggressive regimes will reduce their appetite for provocation. The security of global routes and communications will be ensured. World energy and food security will be strengthened. World leaders, now focused on security, will be able to pay more attention to other key problems of humankind.

Second, a wider war in Europe will be prevented without any drop of American or European blood. European unity will be saved. Investments to the borderland countries will be saved and secured for the future.

Third, the whole authoritarian axis will be weakened. Tensions throughout the world will decrease primarily in key areas of Russian activity: the Middle East and Africa. All the dictators, terrorist regimes and organizations, private military companies, hacker groups and other destructive forces will lose support.

Fourth, Moscow’s defeat will bring positive effects to the peoples of the Russian Federation, as it has always been the case in the Russian/Soviet empire’s history. Defeat becomes the basis for reforms. As the European Parliament Resolution 2024/2579 from February 29th 2024 declares, “Ukraine’s decisive victory may lead to genuine changes in the system in the Russian Federation, in particular deimperialisation, decolonisation and refederalisation, all of which are necessary conditions for the establishment of democracy in Russia.” The Russian Federation will return to the world arena as a responsible partner.

Fifth, there will be one less pretender when it comes to the role of global superpower, which will dramatically decrease global risks. Two superpowers are more likely to come to an agreement than three, as the history of the end of the Cold War proves. The absence of a resurgent Russia would be profitable for both the US and China. Thus, this becomes a good point for a possible agreement or understanding between two superpowers.

Sixth, global trade will be more profitable for the West. Nobody will weaponize fuel or other goods. Western companies will take over the Russian part of some key markets like military equipment because a Russian defeat will undermine its role as a producer of modern weaponry. Simply put, a Russian defeat would be profitable.

Seventh, innovations brought by this war could be used to rethink modern warfare, as well as rearm and retrain NATO forces to make them ready for the next generation of challenges. For the first time in modern history, generals can prepare for the next war, not the last one, without losing the lives of their soldiers. Also the security balance between Europe and the US will improve significantly.

Conclusion

Today, western elites are afraid of escalation and therefore they wait and make half-hearted decisions. The reality is that escalation is happening gradually anyway as a consequence of these (in)decisions.

The world will never be like it was before Russia’s full-scale unprovoked war against Ukraine. It is not possible to go back to business as usual. Now we are coming to a turning point: Ukraine’s defeat or Russia’s defeat. A prolonged war of attrition will lead to Ukraine’s defeat as well as increases in western expenses. The ceasefire which is necessary for Moscow to rearm with the support of its allies will also lead to Ukraine’s defeat. There is no way to avoid the choice. There is no way to postpone the choice to some point in the future. Time matters.

Support for Ukraine is not an expense but an investment: in global peace, in rearmament and innovations, and in free trade. Support for Ukraine not for “as long as it takes” but aimed at Ukraine’s victory and Russia’s defeat is not only value-based, it is a rational choice based on many arguments.

Avoiding the future will only take us back to the past: to the hell of global disorder.

Valerii Pekar is a co-founder of the Nova Kraina Civic Platform, the author of four books, an adjunct professor at the Kyiv-Mohyla Business School and a former member of the National Reform Council.


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