Hard Labour: Britain’s new government looks eastward

United Kingdom Foreign Secretary David Lammy meets with Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas. She is most likely to be confirmed as the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy this autumn. Photo: Ben Dance / Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office on flickr.com

After months of expectation it all seemed to come at once. The Labour Party’s long-anticipated victory at the polls in the United Kingdom was all but confirmed in the minutes after voting ended on July 4th. Winning an impressive majority from the badly divided Conservatives, the result marked the end of a long domestic battle, made all the more tense by the divisions of Brexit. Within hours of the vote the outgoing Prime Minister Rishi Sunak had tabled his resignation to the king, leaving Keir Starmer to move in soon after to 10 Downing Street. The new leader would then promise a period of “national renewal” focused on various societal problems. Despite this, the rather large in-tray now facing the government also includes issues from beyond Britain’s shores. Labour’s return to power comes at a crucial time for affairs to the east. With the Conservatives well known for their track record on Ukraine, the new administration will find itself responsible for upholding standards both at home and abroad. The actions that London may now take could well set a precedent for years to come.

Despite being the first election since Russia’s invasion, Ukraine and the wider region featured very little in the run up to the vote. After 14 years of Conservative rule, a general desire for change appeared to sweep away a party plagued by infighting in every area but foreign policy. The only exception to this came two weeks before the election. The return of Brexit mastermind Nigel Farage as leader of the populist Reform UK was one of the campaign’s key storylines. While the party basked in impressive polling, opponents soon seized on the politician’s rhetoric regarding Russian President Vladimir Putin. In a BBC interview, the arch Brexiteer stated that “We provoked this war. Of course it’s his fault, he’s used what we’ve done as an excuse.” This comment was then tied to other statements from his past life as an MEP. Ever the showman, Farage soon responded with a giant newspaper featuring a similar declaration from none other than Boris Johnson. This back and forth would soon drag in the new government, with Starmer criticised for backing his old anti-NATO boss Jeremy Corbyn. Overall, this episode came as quickly as it went. However, it is clear that Labour will have to get a grip on such drama if it is to please more than just those in the Kremlin.

A government in waiting

Having faced the ghosts of the past, the real work would begin soon after the appointment of Britain’s new government. Customary greetings of congratulation would now roll in, with the prime minister’s order of engagement hinting at his global priorities. As usual America came in first place, enforcing a unique link that will prove consequential both sides of November. Following this came Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Speaking just hours after Starmer began his new job, the two expressed their hopes that bilateral ties would remain “unshakeable” and “unwavering”. Such an exchange suggests that London will continue to place emphasis on the situation facing not only Kyiv but the wider area. Those charged with taking care of such matters became clear with a new cabinet of ministers. The long decline of Conservative rule had effectively allowed time for a provisional government to form around Starmer. This is exemplified by the new Foreign Minister David Lammy, a long-time party grandee who has spent the last three years holding the government to account on these issues. Similar experience is also held by John Healey, who now oversees the defence brief.

While following in the same spirit as before, it does appear that Labour will pursue an approach that at least promises to be anything but static. The last few years as the opposition’s chief diplomat even saw Lammy develop a theoretical framework for his new role. Dubbed “progressive realism” in a speech to the left-leaning Fabian Society think tank, the approach advocates for an internationalism tempered by the practicalities of state. Interestingly, the foreign minister claimed that a key inspiration for this approach is NATO architect Ernest Bevin. A subsequent article in Foreign Affairs would see Lammy praise his predecessor’s resolve in building up the western alliance against the Soviet Union. Such rhetoric is not just academic, with the new foreign minister drawing a parallel with the “invasion and oppression” that defines Moscow’s actions today. This hawkish outlook has been likely refined by special advisor Ben Judah, whose travels in Russia informed his 2013 book Fragile Empire. As a result, it looks like a conscious decision has been made to realize the ambitions of “Global Britain” within London’s direct neighbourhood. A return to Europe in line with the UK’s circumstances therefore looks set to drive diplomacy.

Similar sentiment has also been expressed alongside the new head of defence. Both ministers took the proactive step of visiting Ukraine in May as rumours grew of a new election back home. This allowed the team to introduce themselves to their counterparts Dmytro Kuleba and Rustem Umerov. While unable to meet Zelenskyy as their own boss did last year, these new contacts will prove pivotal in turning ambition into reality. The war-torn country subsequently appears to be the core of a wider strategy to engage more deeply with the continent on such existential issues. As the two declared in a joint statement, “The next Labour government’s commitment to Ukraine will be ironclad, and European security will be our first foreign and defence priority.” This integrative approach was even stressed by Healey during a trip to Berlin one year prior. Writing later in Foreign Policy with the Social Democrats’ Foreign Affairs Spokesman Nils Schmid, the pair stressed the need to agree a bilateral treaty on security cooperation. Of course, comparisons with the rearmament of West Germany in the spirit of Lammy’s new doctrine are hard to ignore here. These continental connections appear to show the echoes of a Blairite legacy now gripping the halls of power in Britain.

Down to work

Such groundwork was recently followed up by return visits following Labour’s electoral victory. Healey was now able to talk numbers during a visit to Odesa on 7th July, less than 48 hours after his official appointment. Alongside an arms package including missiles and military boats, the most important announcement would concern previous Conservative plans. In April, Rishi Sunak announced London’s largest ever aid package for Kyiv. Sensing fears over continuity, the new defence minister would promise to fulfil this delivery within one hundred days. This rush to meet an October 15th deadline reflects a famously hawkish institutional culture established under Boris Johnson in 2022. Despite this, the old Brexiteer would likely run into difficulties with the other part of Labour’s new strategy. Lammy would spend the first days of his new job in Germany, Poland and Sweden on what would best be described as an EU goodwill tour. Subsequent pictures show the new foreign minister at ease with the likes of Radosław Sikorski, his famously Anglophile counterpart in Warsaw. This search for deeper cooperation looks set to challenge a reticent awkwardness left over from Brexit.

With Moscow’s brutal bombing of the Okhmatdyt children’s hospital in Kyiv, these visits offered a dry run for a pivotal NATO summit in Washington. Now surrounded by representatives from across the Alliance, the British team engaged in something akin to diplomatic speed dating. A meeting of the G7 nations would prove an ideal format alongside more informal talks with Baltic representatives. Other big-ticket events would see the UK promote itself as somewhat of an intermediary between America and Ukraine. The 75th anniversary of the signing of the NATO treaty would prove an irresistible opportunity to promote the role of both states within “progressive realism”. For example, the Atlanticist spirit of Bevin was directly invoked during Lammy’s discussions on the “special relationship” with US counterpart Antony Blinken. This was complemented by a high-profile team meeting with President Biden, who praised London’s role as a “transatlantic knot” within the Alliance. Starmer would also lead from the front in providing new long-term guarantees to Ukraine. The leader’s first official meeting with Zelenskyy would see him promise three billion pounds of aid a year “for as long as it takes”. Finding balance between the core and periphery of the NATO engine therefore appears crucial for London as it heals old wounds with the continent.

Future prospects

Questions are now likely to be asked as to how these ambitions will match up with reality. Of course, Labour’s limited time in government has meant that the party top brass has only been able to make promises and not yet deliver on them. Healey’s aforementioned deadline of October 15th will subsequently mark the first major test for the new government in this sphere. This is especially true given the fact that the arms agreement includes new deliveries of Storm Shadow missiles. These long-range weapons have proven decisive in strikes against the Russian Black Sea Fleet in occupied Crimea. Starmer even appeared to go further than his Conservative predecessors by allowing Zelenskyy to use these missiles against Russia proper. However, a source from Britain’s defence ministry would soon stress that the situation was “more nuanced”. Such clarification can also be seen in promises to increase Britain’s defence spending to 2.5 per cent of GDP as part of a strategic review. Refusing to announce a deadline in an interview with Sky News, the prime minister stated that he would “set out a roadmap to it within our fiscal rules”. It appears that the new administration is still trying to find its feet as it makes a name for itself on the global stage.

Starmer’s support for European rearmament also hints at a key goal with regards to Brussels. This is namely the signing of a comprehensive security pact, which has been talked up by Labour for well over a year. The defence secretary has suggested that this could see Britain participate in aspects of the Common Security and Defence Policy, with the team’s frenzied shuttle diplomacy likely viewed as the groundwork for such ambitions. Indeed, Lammy has even talked of regular meetings in order to establish alignment. This desire could well see a renewed interest in engagement with the bloc’s wider neighbourhood. There were aspects of this outlook under the Conservatives through visits to Georgia, Moldova and Serbia. Despite this, stronger links as seen at the recent European Political Community conference near Oxford could make these connections more resilient. Praises for France’s defence and economic agreements with Chisinau could therefore become more than just rhetoric on X. In relation to these countries, journalists spared no time in reminding Lammy of a quiz show gaffe in which he placed the Rose Revolution in Yugoslavia. However, a genuine desire to align with Europe could widen horizons further. This is particularly true in relation to less democratic states more well known for their controversies in London than in the area itself.

As a result, Britain’s new government looks set to realize its regional ambitions within reasonable limits. While eager to separate itself from its troubled predecessors, Labour also hopes to do this while balancing the books. This is seen most of all in a desire to re-engage with the EU, which is viewed as both cost effective and in line with desires to reconnect following Brexit. Of course, this policy will face numerous challenges, no less America’s presidential elections in November. Donald Trump’s appointment of the radical J. D. Vance as his running mate has sent a clear signal of intent regarding issues like Ukraine. Boris Johnson even recently met the former president to discuss support for Kyiv in response. Though it is precisely for these issues that “progressive realism” was seemingly created in the first place. A rationalization of defence can only increase the chances that sceptical voices will warm to ideals of historical unity. As Starmer recently declared, “NATO was founded by the generation who defeated fascism. They understood not just the value of our strength, but the strength of our values.” Labour could oversee British diplomacy well into 2029, perhaps an almost unimaginable time for those facing aggression today. In spite of the change mantra at home, it does appear that the region will remain a rare point of continuity for this new government.

Niall Gray is the copy editor and proofreader of New Eastern Europe. He is also an AHRC-funded History PhD student at the University of Strathclyde.

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Brexit, David Lammy, defence, security, UK foreign policy, UK-Ukrainian relations, United Kingdom