What will Ukraine’s path to the EU look like?

Flags of Ukraine and the European Union near the office of the President of Ukraine in Kyiv. Photo: Shutterstock

In December last year, Ukraine received a historic decision to open negotiations on the country’s accession to the EU, and now the negotiating framework and the first intergovernmental conference are being prepared. Once the conference is conducted, it will mark the official start of the negotiations. 

It should be borne in mind that the official start of negotiations means the beginning of a rather complicated technical process of approximation of legislation to EU law. This process is structured, and the enlargement methodology itself provides for a number of stages of negotiations on various structural components. 

However, the complexity of the process itself also stems from the conditions in which Ukraine is making its way to the EU. These conditions are changing dynamically both due to the situation at the frontline and political aspects at home and abroad. That is why, on its way to full EU membership, Ukraine needs to constantly assess risks and look for ways to address them. And for the European Union itself, it will also be a new experience to accompany a candidate state that is in a full-scale war. 

In this article, we will look at some key aspects that must be taken into account in the process of Ukraine’s integration into the EU. 

The origins of integration problems and challenges

The European Union has a transformative power, especially in the context of political and legal reforms, and the updated EU enlargement methodology has a clear emphasis on democracy, the rule of law, and human rights. The fulfillment of commitments in the cluster of fundamental reforms, which is the first to be opened in the negotiations and the last to be closed, affects the overall pace of the negotiation process on Ukraine’s accession to the EU. However, approximation in this area may be the most difficult for us for two reasons:

• The experience of some member states in terms of the rule of law after accession is sensitive for the European Union. The deterioration of the post-accession situation pushes the EU to be tougher in assessing the implementation of commitments, which could lead to a slowdown in the negotiation process. 
• Approximation requires significant changes in governance, and thus significant resources to fulfill the commitments. 

What is expected of society and the government?

As the experience of the Western Balkan countries demonstrates, a country’s integration into the EU should be accompanied by clear and understandable communication with citizens. This is primarily necessary to create realistic expectations of society regarding the process, reforms, potential disadvantages, and benefits of taking certain measures. At the same time, the slow pace of reforms or ineffectiveness of the measures taken could potentially lead citizens to doubt the benefits of the country’s membership in the EU, and thus lead to the emergence of Eurosceptics. 

Currently, polls among Ukrainians show not only an extremely high level of support for Ukraine’s accession to the EU but also a steady increase. Maintaining this support is an important factor in the negotiation process, especially in the face of war and changing public sentiment during the delay of Western aid. 

Since the negotiations begin with institutional reforms, it is necessary to ensure that two important components of the reform process are in place: public demand and political capacity. Society needs to be more aware of the reform process and demand that the authorities implement these reforms in full, even in the case of unpopular decisions, such as allocating more resources to the state apparatus. At the same time, the Government needs to have the political capacity to implement reforms and ensure transparent communication in decision-making. In this context, a transparent and efficient policy-making process that ensures stakeholder engagement is needed.

The updated enlargement methodology contains a reversibility principle, which provides for the candidate country to move backward in the negotiation process. It was introduced to ensure a merit-based process that can be applied if a country becomes less democratic.

Given this, the attention of both the government and society should be constantly focused on the reforms included in the cluster of fundamental reforms (public administration reform, judicial reform, anti-corruption reform, and law enforcement reform). Moreover, it is necessary to work on improving the actual negotiation process on the cluster of fundamental reforms.

Financial aspect of accession

A separate issue in the process of Ukraine’s integration into the EU is the financial costs associated with the approximation of Ukrainian legislation to EU acquis (EU law). The European Union has a large body of legislation that regulates most social relations. EU regulation concerns both more global things (environment, energy, heavy industry) and more applied to citizens (production of goods, detergents, packaging, etc.). Since the standards in all components in the EU are higher than in Ukraine, the approximation of legislation will gradually lead to higher prices for goods and services. 

Undoubtedly, the introduction of European production standards is a positive aspect for Ukraine, as it will lead to improved quality of products and services. However, this also means significant financial costs for producers: most regulations will require changes in production, re-equipment, and the use of more expensive raw materials or components. This situation will cause a rise in the price of the product for the end consumer, which can be a significant burden for citizens during the war and in the post-war period. 

European challenges for the agricultural sector

In the same context, an important issue is the functioning of the Ukrainian agricultural sector, which is controversial from the perspective of European integration not only in the EU but also in Ukraine. The Ukrainian agricultural sector frightens European farmers not only because of its size but also because of the specificities of its structure. For Ukrainian producers and citizens, the issue of legislative approximation in this area will not be easy. 

Regulation changes will lead to the need to raise standards. Ukrainian farmers will have to switch to other production standards, and therefore allocate significant financial resources for the re-equipment of production. For small businesses, this may become a threat and a matter of survival due to the lack of subsidies and difficulties in accessing exports. Medium and large businesses, although more capable of restructuring production, face the threat of losing third markets due to a significant rise in product prices. 

Today, during a full-scale war, the agricultural business is one of the main taxpayers and a leader in terms of foreign exchange earnings. That is why the main issue in the negotiation process should be transition periods for the implementation of European regulation of the sector. When discussing transitional periods, it is extremely important for the Ukrainian side to convey to its European partners the arguments about the importance of Ukraine’s agricultural sector as an element of global food security and the country’s security in general in times of war.

Another issue related to the agricultural sector that may become controversial for citizens is the functioning of the land market. Land reform in Ukraine has been ongoing almost since independence and is probably the most mythologized. In 2020, Ukraine lifted the moratorium on the sale of agricultural land and adopted the Law of Ukraine “On the Land Market.” The adoption of this law was not perceived very optimistically by citizens, as almost the entire period of land reform was accompanied by manipulations by certain political forces. The law provided for different stages of opening the market to individuals and legal entities, as well as opening the land market to foreigners only after the approval of this issue in a national referendum. As one of the main economic freedoms is the free movement of capital, Ukraine will need to resolve the issue of the possibility of purchasing agricultural land by foreigners, who are citizens of EU member states, in the course of European integration. This issue may become controversial for Ukrainian citizens in the context of war, a large number of mined areas, and financial competition. 

Common agricultural policy in the EU is currently a controversial issue, especially in terms of subsidies and land use. This issue may also be painful for Ukrainian farmers in the context of environmental standards and Europe’s green course. Utilizing land and leaving some plots uncultivated for climate purposes can be a difficult decision for farmers, especially those whose infrastructure has been damaged by the war. 

All of these issues require not only the Government’s work on approximating regulation to EU standards but also ongoing systematic work to raise awareness of Ukrainian producers (including small and medium-sized ones) about all components of regulation and EU mechanisms/tools to support them in a competitive market. 

Migration issue of the Union

The start of the full-scale invasion prompted Ukrainians to seek protection in the EU. As of the end of 2023, there were more than 4 million Ukrainian refugees in Europe. The issue of returning Ukrainians after the security situation stabilizes remains complicated, which raises the issue of human and human capital. One of the EU’s freedoms is the free movement of labor, which may provoke new waves of migration in the process of Ukraine’s integration into the Union. 

In a recent publication, the Belgian think tank Brugel describes the experience of Central and Eastern European countries: the desire of citizens in these countries to earn higher incomes prompted them to emigrate to other EU member states and led to a significant decline in population. For example, after joining the EU, the population of Lithuania and Latvia decreased by 20 per cent, and that of Bulgaria and Romania by 10-12 per cent. At the same time, migration took place against the backdrop of a much higher GDP per capita than in Ukraine. 

Thus, the presence of close relatives or friends who have emigrated to the EU and stayed there, combined with economic factors, may encourage Ukrainians to move to the EU more actively. This situation could lead to a significant labor shortage in Ukraine. 

Ukraine needs to develop comprehensive solutions to bring Ukrainians back from abroad and prevent mass emigration. These include, of course, democratic reforms, creating conditions for employment and business, and others. 

National vs. European sovereignty

 The last, but perhaps the most controversial issue on the path to full EU membership may be national sovereignty. Joining the EU partly involves the delegation of sovereignty from the country to the Union. By becoming a member, a country undertakes to comply with EU regulations and bring its legislation into line with them. Some issues will require amendments to the Constitution of Ukraine, such as voting rights. Currently, it is impossible to make any changes due to martial law, but it is worth initiating a discussion of future changes.

Is this path to the EU justified?

This list of challenges on Ukraine’s path to the EU is not exhaustive, but the benefits of membership justify the complexity of the path. Ukraine certainly needs to build up its European integration infrastructure, continue reforming institutions, and place special emphasis on communication with all stakeholders. In this process, it is important to provide full information on the benefits of approximating legislation to EU requirements, as well as tools for citizens and businesses that can be used to mitigate risks. 

At the same time, at the stage of opening negotiations – that is, right now – Ukraine needs to pay attention to the risks that will arise in the course of fulfilling EU requirements. It needs strategic steps to mitigate risks before they arise. The proactive position and interest of citizens in both the reform process and the EU integration process will help the country to do this. And in the future, when Ukraine becomes a member of the EU, its economic potential will be able to contribute to the development of the European Union itself.

Viktoriia Melnyk is a Coordinator of the European Integration Program at the Center of Policy and Legal Reform (a member organization of the Reanimation Package of Reforms Coalition).

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accession negotiations, EU enlargement, EU membership, EU-Ukrainian relations, Ukraine reforms