Zelenskyy’s formula for peace

President Zelesnkyy’s has been promoting his “peace formula” since its launch at the G7 Summit in 2022. The end goal of the peace formula is the “necessity of liberating Ukrainian territories from temporary occupation”. Photo: Review News / Shutterstock

The Ukrainian peace model is actively promoted by diplomats in the international arena and reflects the frames of an acceptable option of ending the war and ensuring stability in the region.

What does the Ukrainian peace formula mean?

The formula does not act as a classic road map, which includes a clear list of steps, their sequence, or a control toolkit. Rather, it reflects the will of the Ukrainian people and creates a stable platform – the basis of which can be developed by technical aspects of its implementation (security guarantees, mechanisms for the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine, practical means of levelling the humanitarian disaster and so on). In other words, if the formula is a constant, unchanging strategic goal, then the ways to achieve it are flexible and variable tools that can change or adapt to the real situation and circumstances.

For a practical explanation, the end goal of the peace formula is the “necessity of liberating Ukrainian territories from temporary occupation”. Currently, the Russian side does not demonstrate a desire for peaceful dialogue and continues its full-scale aggression – in this case Ukraine has no other options except the use of military force to protect its own sovereignty. However, theoretically, if due to changing circumstances, the Russian authorities suddenly adjust their approach and decide to withdraw their troops, Ukraine will support such a scenario, as well as provide an opportunity to agree to a ceasefire.

It is important to note, nonetheless, that during the development of the peace formula, the Ukrainian side took into account all aspects of the military conflict and its global consequences. Therefore, the Ukrainian plan not only provides for purely military-technical issues, but also a wide list of other urgent problems of a humanitarian, ecological and economic nature. It is difficult to say whether it is possible to reach an agreement on all ten points in a single moment. That is why each of them can be considered a separate track, with its own unique meaning. On each point, Kyiv expects to achieve progress both in the short term at the level of tactical decision-making and at the final strategic level.

1. Radiation and nuclear safety

Stability cannot come only to Ukraine, but also the whole world, as long as there is a threat of using nuclear weapons or artificially provoking a disaster at a nuclear facility. As a result of its large-scale invasion, Russian troops have occupied the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant and Ukraine cannot guarantee security until the plant itself and the territory around it become demilitarised. Kyiv’s specialists also need to be able to technically ensure the operation of the nuclear power station without interruption.

The Ukrainian government consistently advocates for the immediate withdrawal of Russian troops from the nuclear power station and its stable functioning in order to prevent Russian provocations or catastrophes. It is also important for Ukraine to protect itself and the whole world from Russian nuclear blackmail. Kyiv is now calling on all countries to find mechanisms to deter the Russian Federation.

2. Food security

Despite the war, Ukraine remains a key exporter of grain and other products to international markets (primarily to the countries of Africa and the Middle East). The Russian aggression not only affected the Ukrainian agro-industrial complex, creating problems for ordinary citizens and farmers, but also created new challenges for international food security. Ukraine’s plan has been to ensure the operation of the grain corridor with the support of Turkey and the United Nations, and now Kyiv aims at restoring this trade despite the actions of the Russian side. At the same time, taking into account the circumstances, Ukraine is looking for alternative routes to export grain to international markets. In this context, the country expects that its neighbours (first of all, Poland and Romania) will not only provide maximum assistance in expanding transit opportunities but will also refuse to unilaterally limit the import of Ukrainian agricultural products.

Similar steps should form the basis of countering Russian attempts to “stifle” Ukraine economically and will be a significant help in countering Russian aggression. The food topic also clearly demonstrates Ukraine’s strategic intentions – to restore access to the port infrastructure and create conditions for further safe sowing campaigns. However, taking into account the fact that it will not be possible to achieve these fundamental goals immediately, Ukrainian diplomats, politicians and businesses are looking for other temporary options that will allow them to simultaneously support farming in Ukraine and prevent a global grain crisis before all the southern regions are freed from temporary Russian occupation.

3. Energy security

At the strategic level, Ukraine intends to prevent the type of energy terrorism that the Russian Federation used in the autumn and winter of 2022 to provoke a real social catastrophe. According to various estimates, up to 40 per cent of Ukraine’s infrastructure was destroyed by Russian shelling during that period. Ukraine’s ultimate goal is to restore its own technological capabilities and force Russian troops to stop shelling, which seems possible in the event of a political-military victory for Ukraine and the provision of effective security guarantees in the future. However, in the mid-term, Ukraine is taking more measures that have already worked in the previous winter season to create conditions to save people from freezing in the future.

The government’s policy is aimed at finding additional opportunities abroad to improve and expand air defence systems, which will allow it to protect more energy facilities. Active work is underway to obtain F-16 aircraft, which will also primarily be used in defence functions. At the same time, efforts are directed at finding the necessary technical components for the reconstruction and restoration of the energy system of Ukraine.

On a parallel track, a special expert group headed by Andriy Yermak and Michael McFaul is looking for effective mechanisms to limit opportunities for the Russian Federation to obtain foreign equipment used in the production of long-range missiles. With the support of the United States, attempts are being made to limit the supply of military drones from Iran. The main principle is the fewer weapons Russia has, the less shelling of civilian objects there will be.

4. Release of all prisoners and deportees

One of the most important challenges for Ukrainian diplomacy is ensuring an all-for-all exchange. Today, Ukrainian soldiers are in captivity on the territory of the Russian Federation or in the temporarily uncontrolled territories, and one of the main goals of Kyiv is to get them back. In addition, there are many public activists in Russian prisons – people who openly condemned the Russian military aggression in the occupied regions, those who fought for social rights, exposed war crimes or simply called on Russian troops to cease operations. At the level of the Ukrainian Ombudsman’s Office, active work is being carried out for their return. This sphere of exchange is the only one where direct communication between the Ukrainian and Russian sides sometimes takes place.

The return of children who, due to various circumstances, were taken by Russian troops outside of Ukraine, separated from their families and illegally detained by the Russian side, has acquired special importance for Ukraine. Kyiv’s approach is based on the fact that regardless of the situation on the battlefield and the continuation of the active phase of military operations due to the position of the Russian Federation, dialogue on the exchange of prisoners should not stop and specified goals should be achieved.

5. Implementation of the UN Charter and restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity

The basic principle of Ukraine’s strategy is the generally accepted international legal system, upon which the basis of security is guaranteed and relations between countries are regulated. By its own actions, the Russian Federation has violated the UN Charter and disregarded any respect for Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity. This creates a dangerous precedent which brings us back to the historical analogues of the world wars, when one state tries to change the world order by force.

Ukraine’s demands to return to the borders of 1991 and restore its territorial integrity are dictated not only by political will, but also by international law that has no exceptions or alternative interpretations. This position is fully justified and legally supported. Achieving Ukraine’s declared goals will not only lead to the stabilisation of the situation in the region, but it is also a guarantee of preserving the world order. Otherwise, the international system could enter a new stage of turbulence and chaos.

6. Withdrawal of Russian troops and cessation of hostilities

The Ukrainian side is ready for a political and diplomatic settlement and an end to the active phase of hostilities as soon as possible. However, this cannot be implemented while the leadership of the Russian Federation intends to continue the war. In Ukraine, any interpretations that consist of “trading” territory in exchange for something or refusing their legal return are unacceptable. As soon as the Russian Federation displays a willingness to negotiate, taking into account the requirements of international law which correspond to the Ukrainian position, including the restoration of the territorial integrity of Ukraine, Kyiv will support peace negotiations and will react very positively to the withdrawal of Russian troops.  Otherwise, the president’s position is quite clear – to achieve legitimate goals by any means possible.

7. Justice

The Ukrainian side calls on the international community to recognise the need to punish those guilty of war crimes, those politicians and statesmen, military personnel from the command of the armed forces and others who deliberately resorted to criminal actions against the Ukrainian population and caused damage to the country. In order to achieve this strategic goal, active diplomatic work is being carried out within interstate relations and international organisations (primarily the UN).

8. Ecocide, protection of nature

The war started against Ukraine is accompanied by the destruction of civil infrastructure and chemical and energy enterprises, as well as environmental pollution and the destruction of the ecosystem. One of the most telling examples is the man-made disaster at the Kakhovka Dam, which led to the flooding and pollution of large nearby areas. The Ukrainian side is taking measures to draw the attention of international partners to this specified aspect of the war. Kyiv wishes to develop effective mechanisms for the restoration of critically important infrastructure and deter the Russian Federation from further actions that bring an environmental catastrophe of an international scale even closer.

9. Security guarantees and non-escalation

A strategic victory and stability in the region are only possible if the situation becomes settled on the basic principles of the UN, and on the condition that reliable security guarantees can be established. This will make it impossible for the Russian Federation to repeat its aggression. Otherwise, the risk of war returning to Europe will remain, even in the case of Ukraine’s restoration of territorial integrity and the political-military defeat of the Russian side.

Of course, Ukraine’s strategic goal is full integration into NATO, but the Ukrainian authorities fully understand the impossibility of such a scenario before the end of the war. That is why the president and foreign ministry are looking for intermediate options, such as specific agreements with international partners regarding the supply of weapons, the provision of technologies, training of the Ukrainian military, etc. These specified mechanisms will preserve the fighting capacity of the Ukrainian army and create conditions for the protection of sovereignty and national interests.

10. Fixing the end of the war

According to discussion concerning the implementation of the clauses on ending the war and ensuring justice, the Ukrainian side is ready to confirm a stable peace on a document basis.

International reaction to Ukraine’s plan

Thus, the “Zelenskyy Formula” is designed to find partners and encourage support and understanding from all international actors. Some states support all of the points of the peace plan, while others just nuclear safety (for example China and India) or food security (for the countries of the Middle East, Africa and again China) are elements of special interest.

Special hopes in Kyiv are placed on the prospects of the acceptance of the Ukrainian model by the countries of the so-called Global South. That is why the Ukrainian side pays attention to summits like the one that took place in the summer in Saudi Arabia. Ukraine forms its own positions based on the principles of international law and global needs. As a result, neither the Ukrainian authorities nor civil society have any intention of departing from the fundamental principles of the peace plan – the foundations of which will make it possible to end the war as soon as possible.

Anton Naichuk is the director of the East European Council, a think tank and public diplomacy club established to research and discuss current political, economic and social processes in Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

peace, Russia's war against Ukraine, Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy