Relations with Russia will never be the same again

The Russian Federation has now become the most sanctioned country in the world. Photo: Arseniy Shemyakin Photo / Shutterstock

The Russian Federation would continue as a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, inheriting its seat from the Soviet Union. Russian President Boris Yeltsin worked closely with US President Bill Clinton on arms control. Both leaders even signed an agreement to ban “multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles” (MIRVs) in relation to intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). The treaty, however, was never implemented. Clinton also encouraged democratisation and capitalism in Russia. The US and its NATO allies even orchestrated the NATO-Russia Founding Act in an attempt to promote a more “stable, secure and undivided Europe”. Democratisation in Russia was slow, but it appeared as if relations were strengthening between Russia and the West.

Everything then changed at the turn of the century. While the West continued to develop its relationship with Russia, the US, Canada and Europe also worked to establish partnerships with other countries in the former Soviet bloc. This set in motion a feeling of distrust among the Russians.

Bitter relations

In 1999, the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation welcomed the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland into its organisation. In 2004, the Alliance accepted Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia. The European Union also underwent a period of enlargement in 2004, when it welcomed Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia. These countries had shown the world that they were serious about their democratisation efforts and that they wanted to participate in western institutions.

Yet the Kremlin objected to these developments, arguing that NATO enlargement was nothing more than a western attempt to provoke Russia. These false claims would lead to a decline in Russia’s relationship with the West. The election of Vladimir Putin would further strain the country’s interactions with the West. During the early years of his presidency, Putin would work tirelessly to encourage other Eurasian states to join Russia’s version of NATO. Formed in 1992, the Collective Security Treaty Organisation included Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Putin later created the Eurasian Economic Community, which was seen as a response to the European Union. The countries that joined included Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. These organisations’ attractiveness for other post-Soviet states, however, was rather minimal.

Tensions between Russia and the West then escalated in 2008 following the NATO Bucharest Summit. During this gathering, Georgia and Ukraine had expressed a desire to join the Alliance. The US and several other NATO members also supported these ambitions. NATO subsequently stated that it would be open to potentially admitting these two countries.

Fearing it was losing control over its self-proclaimed sphere of influence, Russia launched an unprovoked conflict in Georgia. The Russian Federation moved its troops into Abkhazia and South Ossetia, two breakaway regions in Georgia with ties to Moscow. On August 1st 2008, an explosion near the city of Tskhinvali injured five Georgian police officers and a skirmish erupted between the Georgians and Russian-backed South Ossetians. Days later, Abkhazian separatists attacked Georgian officers, forcing Georgia into a two-front conflict. As then President Mikheil Saakashvili called for a ceasefire, the fighting intensified. Russian troops quickly arrived, claiming that they would serve as peacekeepers. A ceasefire was eventually drafted, but the Russians continue to occupy these regions to this day.

Failed resets

Meanwhile, the Russians adopted a practice of conducting cyber-attacks on sovereign and democratic nations around the world. The Russian Federation has also meddled in the free and fair electoral processes in these countries and supported authoritarian regimes in Libya, Syria and Venezuela. Russian officials have met with political leaders from these countries, continued their business operations with these authoritarian regimes and provided military assistance. While the West has tried to resolve the conflicts in these countries, Russian interference has allowed these crises to continue. These actions show that Russia does not have a high regard for international law and that it has done little to alter its behaviour.

What is more shocking is that several western governments have tried to “reset” their relationships with Russia. For decades, the Baltics, Georgia, Poland and Ukraine have advised Western Europe and the United States against these policies. Nonetheless, these western states continued to pursue this bizarre option. Time and time again as the West tried to normalise its relationship with Russia, Putin and his inner circle continued to meddle in the affairs of Russia’s neighbours and countries abroad. Moscow focused on violating these countries’ sovereignty and undermining democratic practices.

US-Russia tensions escalated during the first Russian invasion of Ukraine. In November 2013, Ukraine’s then pro-Russian president Viktor Yanukovych decided that he would not sign an Association Agreement with the European Union. While the Ukrainian government wanted to maintain its neutral status, the country’s citizens argued that establishing stronger relations with the EU would vastly improve their socio-economic opportunities. Ukrainians from all over the country then gathered in Ukraine’s capital to protest their president’s decision. After three months of demonstrations, the government ordered special forces to fire upon the protestors. This led to the deaths of over one hundred peaceful protestors and the president’s departure from the country. Although he was impeached by Ukraine’s parliament, Russia intervened, stating it was coming to protect ethnic Russians and Russian-speaking peoples in Ukraine. The Russians illegally annexed the Crimean peninsula and launched their first invasion into Eastern Ukraine. The first war, which lasted from April 2014 to February 2022, would lead to the deaths of over 14,000 and the displacement of nearly two million Ukrainian citizens.

Russia ought to have been punished for its unacceptable behaviour. The US led a resolution at the United Nations that condemned the annexation of Crimea. It then worked with the EU, Canada and other countries to implement economic sanctions against Russia. Ukraine steered back on the course of democracy, organising two democratic presidential elections and two democratic parliamentary elections. Nonetheless, Russia continued to meddle in Kyiv’s affairs. In other words, these financial penalties did little to force Russia to change its behaviour.

Today, Ukraine faces a second Russian invasion, one that is more deadly and destructive. Over the past few weeks, thousands of Ukrainian and Russian soldiers have died. Numerous innocent senior citizens, women and children have been killed and over three million Ukrainians have fled the country. Putin’s war has been catastrophic.

What comes after the war

Russia’s decision to invade Ukraine sparked a global response. The international community barred numerous Russian banks from the SWIFT global economic payment system, froze the assets of several Russian oligarchs and politicians, and expelled Russia from various international organisations. In a matter of weeks, Russia’s stock market and economy have plummeted and numerous western companies have ceased their operations in Russia.

The Russian Federation has now become the most sanctioned country in the world. Moscow has demonstrated that it has no regard for the sovereignty of its neighbours and it has implied that it will not take international law seriously. As a result, Russian-American relations will never be the same. The US, as well as its allies and partners, will be hesitant to co-operate with Russian officials. After all, recent diplomatic talks have failed to produce results. These interactions demonstrated that the Russians will not accept calls for dialogue and that the West must respond to the Kremlin’s unacceptable behaviour with forceful penalties.

These events will also present the US with a new opportunity to work closely with Russia’s neighbours. As previously stated, countries such as Georgia and Ukraine have expressed interest in joining western institutions and structures. Admitting them into the EU would help boost their respective economies and it would help their governments pay for the damages caused by the Russians in their country. The West should also force Russia to pay reparations for the destruction it created in these countries. Moreover, Russia should not be readmitted to organisations such as the Council of Europe and the G7 until Georgia and Ukraine are rebuilt.

No one knows when or how Russia’s second invasion of Ukraine will end. But when the conflict ends, a rebuilding phase will be required. During this period, the US and western leaders would be wise to tread lightly as they try to establish a new relationship with Russia. They should question the resolve and intent of the Russian leadership. Sanctions should also remain in place until the occupied territories in Ukraine and Georgia are returned.

Most importantly, the US should never consider a Russian reset ever again. Russia’s treatment of its neighbours and the international community has seen it relinquish that right.

Mark Temnycky is a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center and an accredited freelance journalist covering Eastern Europe.

Russia, Russia-West relations, Ukraine at war, West