What is really behind Ivanishvili’s decision to quit politics

Illustration by Andrzej Zaręba

Ivanishvili stated that his party has laid a solid foundation for a “new history” in Georgia, characterised by peaceful and democratic development. This supposedly contrasts with Saakashvili’s nine years of “authoritarianism, self-fetishisation, a dictatorship based on fear and torture, a seizure of public space, false propaganda and an attempt to reinforce and perpetuate personal power”. 

Ivanishvili is stepping out of the political limelight at a time of great turbulence in Georgian politics. His party won two-thirds of the votes in the October 2020 parliamentary elections. Despite this, most opposition parties have refused to take up their mandates and have accused Ivanishvili’s party of having rigged the vote. As a result, Georgian Dream is facing yet another problem within a larger political crisis. The crisis dates back to the summer of 2019 when police cracked down on peaceful Georgians protesting the visit of Sergei Gavrilov, a Russian Communist member of the State Duma, and his presence in the Georgian parliament.

Georgian juggernaut

Ivanishvili’s decision is an inspirational one for the entire region. It sharply contrasts with other leaders in the post-Soviet space who tend to cling onto power. Last year, in Russia, President Vladimir Putin orchestrated constitutional amendments that guarantee his rule until 2036. In Belarus, Alyaksandr Lukashenka managed to avoid being ousted after a rigged election. In this regard, Ivanishvili can be somehow compared to Kazakhstan’s former president Nursultan Nazarbayev, who remains the de facto decision-maker in the country via his connections to government loyalists and powerful family members.

Yet, many Georgians did not take Ivanishvili’s latest announcement at face value. Indeed, he had already announced his retirement from politics back in November 2013 when he voluntarily stepped down as prime minister. It is claimed, however, that he continued running the state from “behind the scenes”. Five years after having formally returned to politics, there is a belief he will continue to govern on an informal basis. The current situation in Georgia, which is full of uncertainty and aggravated by the pandemic, is unlikely to change any time soon. This may have negative consequences for the ruling party, which faces harsh domestic and international criticism. In this turmoil, Ivanishvili’s decision appears to be necessary for Georgian Dream’s survival.

Under Saakashvili’s administration, which was characterised as pro-western, yet illiberal and authoritarian and strengthened by a strict justice system, the then ruling United National Movement became widely criticised. Nonetheless, the opposition had been continuously weak and failed to bring about change. A shift came about in 2012 after Georgia’s “Trumpian story” appeared in the headlines, with Ivanishvili establishing himself as a political juggernaut to lead the country.

Ivanishvili’s eccentric personality – coming from a small village in western Georgia while residing in a futuristic steel and glass mansion, nicknamed the “glassle” – made for inspirational magazine stories. Ivanishvili is the richest man in the country with an estimated wealth of about 5.7 billion US dollars. This roughly equates to 30 per cent of Georgia’s GDP. He made his fortune back in the 1990s by building up a collection of iron-ore producers, steel plants, banks and real-estate properties in Russia. His vast art collection includes Picasso’s Dora Maar with Cat, which he bought at a New York auction for 95 million dollars. Having sold off most of his assets between 2003 and 2006, he decided to run in the country’s elections in 2012.

After declaring Saakashvili’s government corrupt, he established the Georgian Dream party in April 2012 to end “a façade economy and façade everything”. Even though the United National Movement still enjoyed more support and dominated media coverage, Ivanishvili was immediately joined by Georgia’s opposition, ranging from liberals to conservatives. At the same time, video footage was released showing government abuse of prisoners. This led many to vote for Georgian Dream. Ivanishvili’s party, which vowed for more employment, free speech, democracy and human rights, won the first democratic elections in the country’s history. The party dislodged Saakashvili’s nine-year presidency the following year.

Unfulfilled promises

Even though the party officially set out to uphold democratic values and support Georgia’s European integration, it soon exhibited authoritarian tendencies. The party harassed opposition media and even politicised the judiciary system in order to weaken the opposition. Georgian Dream also established control over lucrative business sectors and blackmailed and persecuted political opponents. Georgia gradually became a “captured state” with little media pluralism, repressed freedom of speech and diminished judicial independence. Thus, the upward trend in democratic standards stumbled three years after the 2012 power shift.

Apart from the signing of the Association Agreement with the European Union, which allowed visa-free travel for Georgian citizens to Schengen Area states, the Georgian Dream’s “democratic” and “European” agenda remains in question. These accomplishments were vital for Ivanishvili’s party as European integration had become a crucial issue for Georgian citizens. This became especially true after the August 2008 war and Russia’s subsequent occupation of 20 per cent of the country’s internationally recognised territory. This led the country to turn to the West for political, economic and diplomatic assistance. Between 2012 and 2020, public support for EU and NATO membership was continuously high, fluctuating between 70-80 per cent. It should be noted that despite successful diplomatic steps in regards to foreign trade and economic relations with the EU, and even with China (aiming to turn Georgia into a transit hub), the country has not seen any tangible results. This is largely due to underdeveloped transport infrastructures. Moreover, the country’s first deep-sea port project in Anaklia, which had been projected as the centrepiece of the state’s transit ambitions, remains incomplete. Some critics say this was due to Ivanishvili’s fear of irritating Moscow.

Public dissatisfaction towards Ivanishvili and his party peaked in the summer of 2019, when the government invited Gavrilov to lead the Interparliamentary Assembly on Orthodoxy in the Georgian parliament building. Having seen the Kremlin politician in the seat of the parliament speaker, thousands rallied to condemn the Russian occupation and worsening political situation. Protesters demanded electoral reforms in order to put an end to one-party rule. After months of demonstrations and negotiations between the opposition and ruling party, a memorandum was concluded on the electoral system. As a result, 120 seats would be elected on a proportional basis, while only 30 seats would be assigned to geographic constituencies, thereby replacing the 77/73 system. The agreement also touched upon issues related to the politicisation of the judiciary and the release of political prisoners. These issues have still not been solved and the government has continuously denied the existence of these problems.

A new crisis came in October 2020 after the parliamentary elections, in which Georgian Dream comfortably won 90 seats in Georgia’s 150-seat legislature. The opposition –led by the UNM, European Georgia, and six other parties that won parliamentary representation – claimed the vote was rigged. The OSCE’s electoral observation mission concluded that it was “competitive and, overall, fundamental freedoms were respected”. However, the mission also claimed that there were “pervasive allegations of pressure on voters and a blurring of the line between the ruling party and the state”. Thousands of opposition demonstrators, once again, took to the streets to express their disapproval of the official results. Consequently, the majority of parties refused to take up their mandates in December 2020 and demanded new elections. Georgian Dream rejected this demand and insisted the vote was free and fair. Approximately one-third of parliament’s seats remain unoccupied by opposition MPs. This has severely impacted the legislature’s ability to represent the country. The parliament’s accountability has also suffered, both domestically and internationally.

Political move

The announcement of Ivanishvili’s departure, which came at a time of domestic political unrest, has been questioned by many in Georgia. Ivanishvili had already resigned from political life in 2013. Nevertheless, it was noted by domestic and international actors that the oligarch impeded decision-making and ruled from “behind the scenes”. In 2018, prior to Ivanishvili’s formal return to politics, then Prime Minister Giorgi Kvirikashvili resigned due to disagreements with him over economic policy.

Ivanishvili has enjoyed near full control of all branches and levels of government. This has led to constant criticism from the opposition, various international organisations and western partners. While leaving politics, Ivanishvili expressed his belief that “a constructive opposition has not been formed” in Georgia. This is despite the fact his own party had constantly used all possible opportunities to challenge the opposition and free press. Political prisoners, such as Giorgi Rurua, remain behind bars. On February 17th 2021 the court decided to sentence another opposition leader, Nika Melia, for allegedly provoking demonstrators to seize the parliament building in 2019. This led to yet another wave of domestic protests and international criticism. The EU ambassador to Georgia, Carl Hartzell, described the circumstances surrounding Melia’s prosecution as a “dangerous trajectory for Georgia and Georgian democracy”. The highly politicised decision even led Giorgi Gvakharia, the fifth prime minister in the past eight years, to resign the following day after a disagreement with his party and possibly Ivanishvili himself.

Ivanishvili and Georgian Dream have experienced a constant stream of international criticism. In the past years, US congressmen and senators, as well as EU politicians, expressed numerous concerns to the Georgian government following the recent crackdown of protesters in Tbilisi. These representatives also demanded electoral and judiciary reform and criticised the country’s clear democratic backsliding. US Congressmen and Senators sent an official letter to then Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and called out the ruling party and Ivanishvili for “efforts to crowd out legitimate American businesses” in Georgia, stating that “any such activities are motivated by geopolitical considerations” and reported ties between Ivanishvili and the Kremlin. A US National Security Strategy document also refers to Ivanishvili as Putin’s close ally.

The situation was further exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic, which the government coped with relatively well during the first wave. Nevertheless, the country experienced an increase in infections after mid-October 2020. The Georgian lari witnessed a dramatic devaluation and state debt skyrocketed to around eight billion US dollars by the end of 2020. The unemployment rate soared to 15 per cent, further amplifying dissatisfaction with the government. As a result, in last year’s opinion polls, Ivanishvili was listed as the most disliked political figure in the country. While around half of Georgians disapproved of Ivanishvili, only 17 per cent responded positively. This contrasts with 2019, when 39 per cent responded negatively, and 21 per cent positively.

In a political crisis that has lasted for almost two years, the ruling party has used all the cards it has to appease the society and international partners but without bringing about any real change. Severe social and economic problems also appeared at this critical time and further exacerbated the situation. For the richest and most powerful man in Georgia, whose popularity has plunged over the past couple of years, this resignation might be a political step. The narrative of his departure was designed to showcase his decision as a completely different, democratic and moral standard of giving up power. Ivanishvili even stated he is to stop supporting the party, which he handed over to his “lovely young friends”. His announcement might have a small, positive effect on the crisis that his party has brought upon the country. Ivanishvili, by resigning, might have tried to ease domestic and international criticism.

As it has been evident for almost a decade, Ivanishvili does not need to be the official leader of his party to control the decision-making process. This has been noted by his opponents and international watchdogs. His network remains in key positions within all major state institutions and there is no restriction to his informal rule. As his former advisor, Ghia Khukhashvili, said, “all roads lead to Ivanishvili”. Georgian Dream has become a means for him to promote his business, infrastructure projects and even his eccentric stunts. All of this requires control over state institutions. Civil society representatives often state that Bidzina Ivanishvili is Georgian Dream and Georgian Dream is Bidzina Ivanishvili and that the party is held together entirely by its creator. These figures also claim his main goal is to be able to do whatever he wants without hindrance.

As a result, the failure for Georgian Dream will mean the end of Ivanishvili’s ability to ignore or adapt legislation to fit his personal business interests. Implementing crucial reforms could put an end to a political crisis that continues to undermine the ruling party’s credibility and Ivanishvili’s position in the country. Perhaps this is why Ivanishvili, after donating most of his fortune to his charity organisation Kartu Group, left a helicopter runway in his official possession. He still fears that his public career could end in the worst-case scenario.

Ioseb Dzamukashvili Sekhniashvili is a policy analyst and researcher focusing on political developments in Central and Eastern Europe. He is a contributing writer for the Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies. He holds an MA degree from the University of Glasgow.

Bidizina Ivanishvili, Georgia, Georgian politics