Joe Biden needs Eastern Europe as a success story

Illustration by Andrzej Zaręba

He served as chairman and ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee for more than a decade. He is well aware of the challenges that Europe faces during his tenure and beyond. 

Donald Trump has left the presidency with an unclear image of the US in front of the EU and non-EU states. Trump demonstrated sympathy for a few Eastern Europe leaders, and they sympathised with him. What is more, Trump clashed with Western Europe, and Biden will surely restore that relationship. However, Eastern Europe is not really on America’s radar, and that is why Biden should give a particular emphasis on this region as a whole. 

More realistic policy?

Scholars and politicians have voiced prejudices towards Biden mainly due to his experience in the previous Democratic administration. At the same time, Barack Obama was strongly criticised for his unwillingness to be “a realistic president” in his approach to foreign policy. Biden had a reputation of being more in the shadow of Obama’s foreign policy. Yet, he was also responsible (probably more than any other US Vice President) for America’s foreign policy, as the second-in-command in the Obama cabinet. Time will tell how Biden is going to address it during this ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. The issue here is the following: while Western Europe has its financial, security and institutional support system, Eastern Europe desperately lacks one. If Biden realises this too late, he might go down in history as “non-realistic US president part 2”.

During the previous administration, Trump became pretty close with some allies in the region. Poland’s President, Andrzej Duda, visited the White House just a week before the presidential election in Poland (Duda was re-elected). Trump increased the presence of American troops in Poland and started a draw down from Germany, reaffirming Poland’s position in terms of European and Euro-Atlantic security architecture. Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán endorsed Trump, while the 45th US President welcomed Hungary’s efforts towards curbing immigration. Some may argue that these two European leaders represent the conservative view in politics and that is why they easily engaged with Trump. However, Trump has now lost the presidency, while those two leaders are still in office. What is more, Trump has avoided direct talks with Ukraine and Russia after his first impeachment, “Ukrainegate”, which means that a daunting list of issues needs to be added to the new administration’s agenda.

These examples represent “a legacy” that Biden should take into account, and indeed he will. However, Poland and Hungary, for instance, are members of the EU and NATO; while Ukraine, Moldova, Belarus are not, and they continue to face risks of Russian influence. Biden should be ready to offer some specific ways of co-operation to all of these counties. Moreover, the countries of Eastern Europe will benefit if Biden is the first to offer a personal invitation to the White House. It should help him find a way to dialogue with other important neighbours of Poland. Biden will have to get along with Eastern Europe even more closely than Western Europe because it is the backbone of Europe’s stability. The situation in Belarus indicates how Russian influence may lead to it being isolated by the West. Hence, an essential lesson in Europe from the Trump era is that without a strong US leadership, Europe – and the EU in particular – faces a serious challenge from Russia. 

First steps

The EU currently faces several domestic issues. It is still a union of member states, whose officials have different approaches towards many challenges, and has no common army or military strategy. That is why US engagement in the region is still necessary, as it was in the 1990s after the fall of communism. When facing domestic issues, Western European countries can count on their developed institutions and economies. But outside of the EU, in some Eastern European countries – such as Ukraine, Moldova and Belarus – still require a security umbrella and western engagement to help establish a robust institutional architecture.

As a consistent transatlanticist, Biden needs to offer more generous political and military support to Ukraine, for example. It will secure his position not just in Europe but in US-Russia talks and to not let Russia’s disinformation campaigns convince Europeans that such periphery as Ukraine is not needed. That is why Biden’s biggest challenge is not just America’s return to “normality” but Eastern Europe’s as well.

A trio of American allies is willing to re-engage with Washington in this cause. Deciding not to wait for American or EU approval, Ukraine, Lithuania and Poland have created a new multilateral platform called the “Lublin Triangle”. This new initiative should determine its dedication and objectives. However, the space where it has been created is rooted in historical ties, such as the Intermarium strategy (a strategy to strengthen relations of states between the Baltic and Black seas during the interwar period). These states are trying to find a more coherent and effective approach to stability in the region. And this can be complementary to the Biden administration’s foreign policy and it should find ways to support such initiatives.

Significant moves

President Biden should continue to support Ukraine through military, financial and political assistance. His former boss refused to provide weapons to Ukraine. The Obama administration did impose sanctions on Russia, but there remains some doubt as to whether they are very effective. Simultaneously, the most ambitious favour Kyiv may ask Washington is to recognise Ukraine as a major non-NATO ally. This status would define US determination towards Ukraine for the decades to come. The Biden administration, at least for now, has only voiced semi-formal statements on Crimea and Donbas.

Furthermore, Russia-EU clashes indicate that Brussels should take a more cautious note of Moscow. The recent visit of Josep Borrell to Moscow, and the developments and statements that followed, indicate how profound the EU’s misunderstanding of Russia’s unwillingness to continue constructive dialogue really is.Biden should take the position of an active participant in providing security in the region with an understanding that the economic and political success of Eastern Europe can be a success story for the US in Europe.

Walter Hallstein, one of the founding fathers of the European Union, once said that “Europe is like a bicycle: it must keep moving forward, or it will fall over.” The question today is whether Biden is ready to help keep this bicycle going. And if yes, how far?

Vladyslav Faraponov is an analyst and journalist at the Kyiv-based Internews Ukraine and UkraineWorld.

Eastern Europe, geopolitics, Joe Biden, Ukraine