Analysis

Karabakh remains a key global hot spot in terms of periodic clashes between conflicting parties – Armenia and Azerbaijan. The collective West has often been criticised because of its inability to take a leading role in the peace process, especially after the Second Karabakh War of 2020 enabled Russia to increase its influence in the South Caucasus. However, the ongoing war in Ukraine has influenced the Karabakh peace process, which in light of Russia’s shifting attention and declining resources has resulted in a weakened role for Moscow. There now seems to be momentum for the West to play an important role in the process, which will be beneficial for all parties. 

Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine has now reached an important point. While Kyiv continues to make steady progress on the battlefield, Moscow is attempting to shore up its defences for over the winter. The coming months will likely prove crucial to the outcome of the conflict.

The ongoing war in Ukraine is much more than just the fighting on the frontline. It is ultimately a war for ideals, a conflict that stretches to the theoretical limits of global politics.

The potential for internal strife in Russia has scared western administrations for many decades. Instead of propping up the Kremlin, decision-makers should accept the possibility of change as a positive development.

“111 billion hryvnias of Naftogaz subsidies will not stimulate energy-efficient behavior of the population" says Oleksiy Korchmit, Head of the Ukrainian Association of Energy Service Campaigns. According to the Cabinet of Ministers, gas should be enough for the heating season 2022-2023, although only 13.2 billion cubic meters were accumulated instead of the planned 19 billion cubic meters.

Five years ago, the Servant of the People party gained a mono-majority in the Verkhovna Rada. Since February 24, MPs have been engaged in parliamentary work in a full-scale war. Over the past seven months, some have been expelled from the faction, such as collaborator MP Oleksiy Kovalev, and others have taken high public office, such as Prosecutor General Andriy Kostin. What does the future hold for the Servant of the People party and can it exist without the support of President Volodymyr Zelenskyyy?

While the world remains focused on the war in Ukraine, an important political game is being played in the South Caucasus. The local states of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia now find themselves in rather different positions as external powers attempt to jostle for position in this fractious region.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has destabilised not only Europe but also its neighbourhood and inevitably the South Caucasus. This region already has a complicated geopolitical milieu even without any external triggers. Regardless of the outcome, the war will result in a resentful spillover effect in the three countries of the South Caucasus, as they are connected to Russia through trade, remittances and tourism. The economic sanctions, imposed by the West, have enormously affected the rouble, decreasing the remittances sent from Russia by the Azerbaijani, Armenian and Georgian diasporas. Russia is and will be isolated and this will create difficulties for the nationals of the three countries living there.

The interdependence between Russia and Germany has also created geopolitical and security concerns for the EU. Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Germany needs to now understand that domestic and European energy security are intertwined. There are several measures that Germany can adopt in order to address this energy security dilemma in the short and long term, taking into account geopolitical circumstances at the EU level.

Three days into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced a Zeitenwende – a turning point in the history of East-West relations. His speech in the Bundestag was meant to mark a generational change in German foreign policy towards Russia. When Chancellor Scholz declared that Germany would, in a gradual process, dramatically reduce its dependence on Russian energy supplies, it launched a debate among German policymakers that has reverberated across Europe. While the goal is apparent, to extricate Germany from Russian energy dependence with minimal economic trauma, there is still no consensus on how to achieve this.

Following a brief summer hiatus, the Georgian parliament is back in session. At the top of the list will be the reform efforts proposed by the European Commission.

The September clashes were the most serious armed incident between Armenia and Azerbaijan since the 2020 Karabakh war. Experts are speculating whether Azerbaijan is gearing towards a bigger offensive in southern Armenia or just trying to pressure Yerevan.

The death of Britain’s Queen Elizabeth II has led to an outpouring of tributes from around the world. In this regard, Central and Eastern Europe has been no exception. Such a response is emblematic of a human relationship that increasingly transcended politics.